OK, for reasons other than curiosity, I needed to create a poll, so I thought I'd make it interesting. Which of the banks listed above is the most likely to either become insolvent, file bankruptcy, or be seized by the FDIC (or any other regulatory body) in 2008? I realize that some of the choices do more than banking, but we're just talking about the banking division here, not necessarily the whole company.

UBS is as good a candidate as any.

A recent internal memo explaining the guido loans reeked of 'whistling past the graveyard'.

DSL

No multiple choice, how do I choose just one? 4155, I agree DSL is probably the most likely that I look at.

I added DSL, I had them categorized as a mortgage lender instead of a bank. Any other obvious choices I missed?

re: multiple choice - I'm just interested in your top pick...

WM

Sorry poll needs ability to do multiple choices. Maybe question should be rephrased, which bank will fold FIRST in 2008.

And you definitely need Fremont and Corus in there. (You see, too many choices.)

There is no guarantee that any bank will fold in 2008, much less be the first of several. If your thesis is that multiple banks will fold in 2008, your answer for "most likely" would coincide with your answer for "first."

Guy, if you want to re-create the poll with multiple (and more, or different) choices, go right ahead, and I'll repudiate this one so KD can bilge it. (That's not a gauntlet being thrown, I really don't care if this is the "official" poll)

Its a good poll, I like it.

I was thinking along the lines of a date. For example in Alaska they have a big poll for the time when the ice breaks up on some river. (I forget which one). So its a lottery and they have some sort of special device planted on the ice so that it will trip a timer. Who ever is closest AND YES, your guess is down to the second becomes the big winner.

So yeah, how about a date and a nice selection of banks, which you already have. Whoever comes closest to the filing of BK or merging or takeover by FED wins, so to speak.

No, your poll sounds fun, something along those lines is good.

How about a second poll - when will the first bank failure occur? Not which, just when. It will be interesting to look at the date distribution along with the company distribution from this poll when things really get hopping... (If you like the idea, go ahead and create the poll. I won't, so that we don't end up with a duplicate)

BTW, I gave this poll a one-month expiration - no point in allowing after-the-fact votes in July!

Great idea Foxy.

Do I HAVE to be limited to just ONE?!!!

Here is some interesting info on your local banks. I'm sure you already have this website.

http://www.bankrate.com/brm/safesound/se....

I thought I would look up the worst rated banks in my area. There are six banks within 40 miles that have a 1 star rating. I'm interested to see how long it takes them to go TU.

Coming to an area near you!

Better worded question:

Which bank do you own puts/shorts....? hahaha

looks like C/WM/DSL

I'm the ONLY Etrade voter? Wow!

YOu gotta consider which one would fall under the "too big to fail" rule. WM qualifies, 2500 branches+. No way the gubmint lets them go under. You'd see a similar "take one for the team" scenario as BAC buying Countryfried, or perhaps a Northern Rock style bailout. Hence DSL is the most logical choice. I believe they'd be allowed to go***** up in a mosquito swamp swimming pool of a foreclosed home without much intervention.

2nd ETRD voter here... My 2nd choice would have been WM, NCC and then DSL... I'm surprised that there were not more votes for E-Turd. That portfolio of worthless 2nd mortgages is going to be their down fall!!

Another outfit destined to fail not on the list would be IMB...

NCC----C...1st and 2nd choice

NCC...if my PUTs have anything to say about it.

Yeah! DSL takes the lead! I guess they will have to pry my DSL shorts out of my cold dead hands after all.

interesting that ONLY 1% voted for BSC to fail.

rumour/rumor is that LEH is next -- but methinks that UBS is next with most likely the surprise being either JPM or GS

yea..i know that the poll has expired. just thought i'd add my 2 canadian cents in :)

Ta Ta Citibank,,,,,,,,,,

I think the smaller banks will go first.

Take Fifth Third Bank for example:

This bank has many offices in Ohio and Florida...two of the largest foreclosure states in the country. I think they also have banks in Michigan.

IMO, they are toast!

Who was the one person who called Bear Stearns and who's next? O_o

How about none as BOB will bail them all out.