Excellent ticker as usual - just need to fix the typo from 2000 to 2008 "Year In Review"

Let's go over the 2000 "Year In Review" predictions again:

The US will enter a .......

Thanks for reminding us of your stellar record of predictions. I came to the conclusion that you have been spot-on just by following the daily Ticker, but it's nice to see it summarized and cross checked in one place. You have an incredible grasp of the extremely complex forces at work, while most other "experts" seem to be clueless. I don't know how you do it, but thanks for doing it, and keep it up so we can keep in front of this.

What I don't get is how we can have a Fed Chairman who is so clearly wrong and yet NOBODY calls him on it.

I mean c'mon. I **** up and have made my share of bad calls from an investment perspective, but I eat 'em when I make 'em. Wrong is wrong.

How the **** can everything that comes out of your mouth be wrong and yet you keep your job? I thought only the Weatherman got to do that ****?

Bernanke reminds me of George Bush - will not admit to making mistakes, and worse won't do anything about it. Hey didn't Bush appoint Bernanke... I blame all of this Bush, Chaney, etc. Administration...

KD, my guess is that nobody is calling Ben on this because they actually think he is doing the right things. Again, the people who should be in a position to call him out are just as clueless as he is. I have been a long time subscriber to a newsletter put out by Stephen Leeb, who, until about 18 months ago, had a very good track record, so far as I could tell, in understanding and predicting economic and financial events (his stock picks are so-so, but I was listening to him for his macro view, not the stock picks). For example, he was the one of the first to predict the massive increase in oil prices when oil was at $30/barrel. However, he has been dead wrong, and continues to be, about the effects of the housing fiasco on the economy. Over three years ago, when I was convinced that the housing and mortgage bubble was going to collapse and wreak havoc, he was telling his readers that housing was the one thing in the spate of potential troubles in the economy that we didn't need to worry about. He has grudgingly come around to saying the housing situation is bad only recently, but said it was contained and wouldn't affect the rest of the economy. Now, just this past week, he finally acknowledged that the financial situation is a concern, but in this week's e-mail update, he insisted the Fed was on the case and the problems could be solved with money. Here's a quote:

"NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT…FOR NOW


What really belted stocks towards the end of last week was further fears of bank failures, housing problems, etc. – which spooked investors into thinking that “this time might be different.” Truth is, what’s happening in these sectors is pretty similar to crises in the past. We know from history that problems in banking and housing can always be solved with money.


What’s more, the Fed stands ready to shovel as much money onto the economic fire as necessary. It’s already begun. We think it will be as effective now as in the past.


For one thing, if the economy were truly on the brink of some cataclysmic decline, the broad market would look much sicklier than it does today. Over the past month or so, the broad market has solidly outperformed the big cap stocks. That gives us reassurance that the economy remains strong.


In fact, the only weak area we see in this market right now is the financial stocks. And these are the very stocks that will benefit most from the liquidity and stimulus the Fed and Congress are providing.


As we’ve said before, we cannot absolutely rule out a recession. But we feel that even if the technical criteria for recession are met, it will be a recession in name only. It will not be the kind of devastating recession that feeds on itself.


We also take some solace in the fact that Warren Buffett recently expressed a similar view in his annual letter to shareholders. In it, the Sage of Omaha noted that, while his building-related subsidiaries were weak in 2007, he didn’t expect this weakness to last very long. Well, if the all-time most successful investor and one of the shrewdest economic observers around sees no open-ended decline in the housing market, who are we to argue? Right now, houses are getting cheaper and interest rates are getting lower. It’s only a matter of time before the consumer sees a bargain and steps forward to open his wallet.


In this regard, we note an interesting article in Barrons this week, in the “Other Voices” column. The expert who wrote this article points out that a lot of consumer activity is underestimated by current statistics. The average consumer may be in better financial shape than anyone suspects. If so, that will certainly bode well.


Of course, we really can’t predict what consumer spending will look like months from now. All we know is that the type of problems we are experiencing today have always benefited from increases in money supplies and lower interest rates. And that’s exactly the kind of medicine being applied in abundance today.


Consequently, we suspect that the current spate of negative economic statistics will probably run its course within the next month or so. So hang in there, and be patient. And while you’re being patient, hold onto your financial stocks. They should get a boost for the next little while as all this stimulus flows in their direction."


Now maybe Leeb is a moron, but as I said, his advice in the past has been sound. He's often trotted out as an expert of CNBC and Bloomberg. But I can't for the life of me figure out how thinks lowering interest rates will solve the current mess we face. But this is what we are up against.

I've felt for a long time that he was off base on the current situation, but couldn't really articulate why, other than my own observations about the crazy behavior I was seeing around me. But KD, you have been able to really explain it and make sense of it. You may the one of the few in this country that does.

Great ticker as always KD.

I have begun to wonder if Bernanke may not have as much power as we think. This administration is known for keeping its departments on a tight leash so that the executive speaks with one voice. The Fed has nominal independence but who knows what is going on in meetings and phone calls.

Gen, I like the new Bear avatar... who does the music in the bomb vid... I want to go get the CD....

Lack of power is one thing.

But he does know what's up - and he's lying.

Watch him on the hill. He's lying and knows it. Its obvious. If he played poker against me he would be broke inside of 10 minutes.

I know you guys hate Paul but many times he has called Ben on this, " how do you propose that we fix inflation with more inflation" his premise however is that regulation in a debt-based fractional reserve banking system is doomed to failure. Legislation post depression (Glass-Steagal) was enacted to stop these shananigans, but the usury garnered from lending that which one does not possess always trumps legislation with repeals in the name of financial innovation. (Graham-Leach-Bliley)

Ron Paul sits on the committee as vice chair that could have stopped this AND STILL DOES.

He did nothing.

Nuff said.

Gen, I have often wondered if RP let things slide into **** to help his gold agenda. If so he is an extremely dangerous person.

He's been educating people about what goes on for 40 years everyone thinks he's a crack pot. He probably had about as much influence as you've got getting people to sign the petitions, 5% in favor don't make it, give the guy his due. The 71 year old grand pa's making plenty of noise. He works within a bought and paid for Democracy.

And I'm well aware of the fact that he is on the House Financial Services Committee. He subs Monetary policy NOT OVERSIGHT. ***Now enough's been said***

This is a disingenuous accusation, period.

***************************************************

Subcommittee on Domestic and International Monetary Policy, Trade, and Technology

Jurisdiction
The subcommittee focuses on international finance, banking, and monetary organizations, including the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The subcommittee is also responsible for issues involving monetary policy, economic stabilization, and trade in financial services.


Leadership
Luis V. Gutierrez (D-IL), Chairman
Ron Paul (R-TX), Ranking Member

********************************************************

Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations
(This is what you accuse him of being Negligent- he's not on this sub-committee)

Jurisdiction
The subcommittee is charged with oversight of all matters within the jurisdiction of the Committee on Financial Services. Its investigations have ranged from corrupt housing authorities to financial fraud.


Leadership
Mel Watt (D-NC), Chairman
Gary Miller (R-CA), Ranking Member

I think Genesis is right about Bertanke....it seems to me that he knows the deep **** we are into and what should be done, but he doesn't have the balls to buck the political machine and call a spade a spade. As to the stock investor newsletter people like Stephen Leeb and Louis Navaeller, these guys are like Bill Murray in GroundHog Day...they wake up every morning and it's the 2003-2007 bull market where you simply buy every dip and interest rate cuts solve all problems. The freakin problem is that it's a very new and different day and they can't see it.

Genesis,

Great ticker!

It has been a tremendous education reading your ticker and the amazing discussions on TF.

That was a particularly good one.

Seems people insist on learning leasons the hard way, so we're on trust annihilation watch, they aren't content with it's shattered remnants lying dismembered in a corner they've got to light it on fire for good measure.

Bring it on, you have to think they've earned what's comming to them, along with all the we're entitled to this or that citizens that need the same leason.

Being squicked as a short because of non-disclosure of problems*****es me off. I don't know if securities class actions lawyers have sued on behalf of shorts and put-holders for gains that otherwise would have been revealed except for such shenanigans, but it seems like a viable cause of action.

In general, I'm against shareholder strike suits and the opportunistic (read, scumsucking) lawyers who bring them (in fact, I have defended these kind of suits), but I hate being early/wrong because of problems apparently deliberately concealed.

These guys are in over their heads, like most Americans, maybe including me, the system has been stable enough that no one really had to fix anything.

Now, when it's going to hell, we find out they have little ability to actually wield the power they've been given.

This is what happens when you put people in charge because they went to Harvard, or Yale or were members of the Skull and Bones, instead of on merit.

Bernanke could hold a closed session of Congress and scare the living **** out of them and get them moving their asses. What's so hard about that? I think he's ignorant.

You guys crack me up, the FED only has the power to redistribute the wealth from the bottom up,via theft aka inflation tax of over zealous credit creation. The Treasury in concert with government can work to redistribute top down. Big Ben is a pawn. When the FED is adding liquidity it is merely borrowing from those its mechanism has redistributed to. They can only create paper not wealth. They take the tokens provided for the widgets of producrion to counterfeit more production this is a con and the holders of the tokens get wise. Now the productive economy from which the banking, financial and investment community leech (non-productive) will need to endure great pain to either readjust to their loss of income, stored or otherwise. Or get busy being uber productive to make up what was stolen, longer hours less pay. This will not be fixed by the banking system. This also has nothing to do with education, this is not an accident. No one here has even attempted to explain how legislation will fix this it wont it will only delay the next reoccurance. The damage is done. We had said legislation to prevent exactly this type of theft it was repealed why is this hard to grasp.

Stormrunner

Incorrect on your accusation that no one has has even attempted to to explain how legislation will fix this......I have done so many times

It's already been doone once before...research the War Stabilization Act of 1942, otherwise known as the Steagall Ammendment. Yeah it's the same Steagall of Glass-Steagall....He understood the issue completely regarding productie wealth vs paper wealth.

Snooze

If you read my first post to this thread I addressed Glass-Steagal,
Last modified: 2008-03-07 20:03:56 by stormrunner

it managed to be superceded, so again what constitutes effective binding legislation. In the environment of fractional reserve banking where industry is in bed with the banks, when fraud needs to occur to support that which is not popular with the public, the result is always the same

All I'm saying is, if Bernanke felt he was really at the end of his rope, i.e., the FED could do no more to prevent collapse, he could tell Congress the truth and really wake those tools up. Instead he keeps presenting the illusion that, while things are sort of bad, they're not dire.

He's covering his own temporary ass.

This is incompetence, maybe not in finance, but in matters of managing a country. Either he knows collapse is imminent but he's too "scared" to tell people who could actually do something, or he's under the ignorant illusion that things aren't that bad. Actually, there is a third possibility that there is actual evil here intending to destroy the country but that doesn't add up.

There's nothing he can do,short of admitting the truth.He's doing the same thing the Prez did the other day in that press conf.If he admits the reality of the situation,it's instant chaos and depression.
That would be the Govt. 'marking to market'.
I'll sign any petition you come up with Karl,we are of like minds.
But the Federal Reserve won't***** in their own punch bowl.

He could tell Congress in a closed session.

Then, if one of them leaks, the collapse is on them, and he should make sure they understand that. "If you go to the press with this, and trigger a collapse, history will hold you as the instigator of the 2nd Great Depression."

Of course the finger of blame is a fickle beast and who knows where it ends up. My bet is that George W. Bush will be held to blame for the upcoming er, uh, thing.