I've been short HOG for some time now...it's just starting to come around. They underwrote subprime motorcycle loans, and I'm sure there won't bethe clamor for $20K bikes very soon.

Yeah, that is one that sure looks good, at least in theory.

I thought about shorting it a while ago (April timeframe) but then it took off on me and fell off my radar. Just looking at the chart here quickly it does look kinda juicy - but I'd like to see it break support around the $58 level. There's also support right near $59, but another "good" stroke down and it will blow through both of those; from there the next two significant levels of support look to be around $55 and then $50.

I'd heard that they had a lot of crap credit on their balance sheet from financing bikes - the obvious quesiton is, "at what interest rate"?

Yeah I have been enjoying my HOG short much more recently. Their next earnings may be an uptick since they had a stike that backed up what orders they had.

Thanks goes out to Doug Kass for alerting me to this one. I think the boat industry is another decent area, such as HZO. In either case the premise that HELOCs are gone, consumer spending is decreasing and luxury items will not be on the wish list for a while makes sense to me. Unless gas gets so expense we are all driving around on motorcycles but I don't see that coming for a while.

I considered shorting Brunswick (they're BIG in the marine space; their list of brands is huge) a while back but the price action just didn't justify it.

The boat market has gone to crap in the last two years. I can tell you that with certainty as I live in one of the biggest boat markets. The dealers all put on a brave face, but you should see the price I got on a NEW center-console last year!

They definitely needed the money more than they needed the boat, and there are a lot of boats sitting on lots right now.

NOW BC is looking like a hell of a short, if it just drops another buck or so. There is a very nice head-and-shoulders pattern that is completing in the stock, and it just broke the 50 and 100 (today). One good plunge through the 200 and its open season on that one.

There's quite a bit of premium in the options, especially the near-money ones for August (which would be my target, or perhaps go out to December by which time the ugly should be in full force), so I'd be inclined to short it directly. Its easily borrowed.

If you do it here stick a VERY tight leash on it until it breaks the 200.