Nice catch on the CW cd yeild. See it advertised but never dawned on me.

Newbie here.
So, to translate, are you're saying S & P at 1470ish is the last chance to sell out any remaining loser/doing okay equities?

I have a bit of gold I bought in a foggy panic at $668 - do I sell it then, and wait for the big drop to buy back in?

If you're long here and we reject at the .618 retrace the odds are we're going a LOT lower in a BIG hurry.

If we go over that then I'd stand aside unless long, and if long, wait for the rollover, THEN dump it.

K_D can you please update us in Ticks if and when you find out that the calls stuck.

Thanks in advance.

If those 120,000 SPY calls stick, then that is as good a guarantee of an imminent market crash as I've ever seen.

Thanks very much for your answer (and all your great answers), Genesis, but I really am new to all of this, so sorry, I don't quite get what you're talking about: 618? rollover? Then dump which - the gold or the equities?

(Just to let you know, I'm interested in putting my funds in for long term retirement protection more than daily trades - mainly because I'm afraid I'd only lose my own savings and everything my (deceased) Dad saved for me if I tried the play the market any other way -- the babe in the woods that I am, here.) So, say again?

You must be updating the ticker with the CFC news?

that links doesn't work for me...

Gardener,

.618 is a Fibonacci number (common place for support/resistance and retracement), rollover would be going above this number then starting back down, at which you would DUMP your longs and hopefully already be short. Cash is still a good thing right now if you don't understand this. You don't want to be holding anything if this gets going as to meet margin calls everything will be sold. After that some cheap stocks/silver/gold may be a good investment. Stay tuned.

Correct - I updated the ticker. The CFC deal is funnier than hell.

Those guys are BANKRUPT. They got $2b from BAC because they could not go to the discount window! This after drawing down $11b in credit!

Guys - they're ****ing bankrupt!

"Guys - they're ****ing bankrupt!"

Unbelievable that literally the nation's largest home loan lender is BK. I would have never thought that it would come to this but apparently it has.

Ironically, there is now a grain of truth in those Buffett/CFC rumours. Now that Buffett has a sizable position in BAC and BAC will get dibs on some of those CFC BK assets, Buffett has in effect, purchased part of CFC.

But I'm sure that's not how CNBC was envisioning the deal going down. LOL!

BofA did same thing to Calpine before they went BK.

EXACTLY Av8.

The guys over on Yahoo are funnier than **** on this. They all think they hit the ****ing lotto.

It'll be a few days before they figure it out.

$2b billion for warrants = 111 million shares, more or less.

15%ish dilution - immediately.

Now, let's think here. You're long the rights so you short 111 million shares (!) This, of course, drives down the price, but who the **** cares? You pocketed the difference betweeen $18 and the short price immediately. Let's say you get 'em at $26; that's $8.

Ok, now you also get 7.25% coupon.

The short is "free" and delta-neutral, and you have priority in a BK.

Hehehehehehe...... if I had $2b laying around I'd have made that deal. Its a ****ing money printing machine.

Most of the time when this happens there are no good short shares available. Not so on this one!

If its still up in the am, I'll back up the truck for puts.

If the options desk sniffs this out, what are the odds the puts don't trade at much of a discount before it rolls over?

Thank you, flyboy!

After checking out a few website, I sorta kinda get the golden mean concept but don't think I have the smarts/knowledge to put it into practice. A heads up would be much appreciated!

The options guys are going to be all over this and the IV will be INSANE.

There ain't gonna be no discount on the PUTs.

gardener, i, too, am a newbie here. i think the difference between us is that i realize this is the shark tank, but i don't think you do. i can tread water and watch the feeding frenzies and carnage while feeling perfectly safe in my own financial situation. compared to the guys here i am very conservative, but i have done everything i am able to to keep life and limb contiguous and i sleep well.

the situation here, on this thread, is very interesting, extremely informative, but it can be quite fraught for those playing seriously in these waters. it's like swimming with the big dogs, or so it seems to me. while i am chary of giving advice - oh, i will tout gold til the sun goes down, but i don't feel like i am telling anyone what to do. i think maybe you should get into cash, if you can, until you understand what you are doing, or trying to do. cash, esp. loonies, is not a bad place to be and the cost of lost opportunity is nothing compared to the loss of your, and your dad's, capital. all the best to you, don e.

Guys,

S&P futures are up to 1480.8, NiKKei is up 405, and JPY/USD is up 1.07. Any ideas haw this bodes for tommorrow given BofA/CFC deal? Normally, I'd be freaking out a bit, but I'm thinking CFC will tamper things down. Thoughts?

Av8,

Nice comment by the way on Calpine. I spent a lot of tuition in the school of hard Knocks with the Buffet rumor on that one. I was going to mention that a couple of days ago when it came out but I had a few beers in me and have a strict policy of not posting under the influence.

Looks like more pain for shorts /puts. THis will run until the choker cuts off the air. Kind of like the dog in the Foghorn Leghorn cartoons (chicken hawk)

edit

I don't either, to be honest. To do this with in-the-money calls this far in makes no sense as a vertical, and I can't find anything in the out months that suggests that it was a calendar play.

The only explanation that makes sense is a covered call write or (shudder!) a naked write.

I think portfolio hedging is the likely explanation, but if they're naked writes, it provides the option seller with a nice cash stash from which to buy a rebound. Clearly this would require planetary-sized balls.