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User Info EUR/USD Trading in forum [FX]
Clarencebeeks
Posts: 1929
Incept: 2008-01-11
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This week has been picture perfect for bullish models. A drop lower to test the recently busted LT trendline and the 200 DMA, and then a rocket shot to multi-month highs.
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Clarencebeeks
Posts: 1929
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updated view:
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Clarencebeeks
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This week has so far been one big bull flag. Should break up and test the 50% fib at 1.4170(ish).
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Kirkrrr
Posts: 45
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Deerfield, IL
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A hanging man after a big move up with RSI at resistance and stochastics at 95? - I never thought trading gets this easy lol

So using a Fib retracement off the top and down to the doji on 4/21, my target would be the 38.2% support at 1.36, and I'd be looking to add to my short position should it retrace to 3880.

This brings up a question that's really kicking my ass right now - what are some of the ways you guys add to your positions? What do you look for, in what sizes? I would very greatly appreciate any insight y'all would be willing to shed on this for me!!

Kirk
Clarencebeeks
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Bull flag intact, awaiting breakout north. Kirkrrr, those blue squares are where I will go long. That's one way of adding to positions - as the price moves in your favour beyond technical support/resistance areas (in this case, beyond the daily highs of the past week). Another way is to add on retraces (back to previous breakout zones, fib retraces).

This thread from elitetrader is a good discussion about adding to winning positions on stock indices.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread....
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Clarencebeeks
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Breakout north was very nice. I was targeting the 50% fib retrace (1.4180), but the 5-minute shows an 'M' pattern (double top), so I am out early. Would go long on a break above the day's highs, though.
Clarencebeeks
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Got through the 50% fib, but will be interesting to see if it can hold above there today. For the bullish side, I don't like this early move higher. Beware shooting stars.
Clarencebeeks
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Monthly trendline, failure there would tie-in with the (potential) triangle on the dailies that I posted on the 25th May.

Above the December high (1.4719) opens up the 2008 highs.
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Clarencebeeks
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Here is a weekly view, with the (potential) triangle in blue, and that monthly trendline in green. 1.44-1.45 will be a battleground. ECB decision on Thursday, which - given the current trend - will most likely coincide with this price area.
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Clarencebeeks
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Bit disappointed that 1.44-1.45 hasn't been reached yet. Maybe a H&S on the hourlies. ECB up in a couple of hours.
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Zenthunder
Posts: 6826
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Possible HNS on daily forming... They are pumping it. Also seeing that the last downmove on hourly looked more impulsive than corrective. If price returns up to 1.4050 and fails I will short, especially if they are pumping it to the downside...

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_rep....

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*** FRAUD is NOT a business model.
HOPE is not a business plan!
Zenthunder
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I'm seeing at least 5 different stories now pumping the bearish tone on the euro. Next piece of bad news or technical rollover could start a good sized move if everyone starts to watch it...

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*** FRAUD is NOT a business model.
HOPE is not a business plan!
Clarencebeeks
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I agree with Zen. (I have had 2 bottles of wine, so can't contribute anything more eloquent, but like Randy123, don't like the "+1", or "What Zen said"). So I will say that I agree with him.

I also like to add to shorts on cable and Ozzie on breaks below today's lows. I started to draw charts, but I am too ****-=faced to post them, sorry,
Zenthunder
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Shorting - ... lets see what happens. This is dangerous as there is alot of news due... We will see.

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*** FRAUD is NOT a business model.
HOPE is not a business plan!
Zenthunder
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Hmm........ Closing half so I can book some, locking the rest in before the news so I can't lose any. Perfect short btw.. exact high of the night

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*** FRAUD is NOT a business model.
HOPE is not a business plan!
Zenthunder
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Ruh-Roh, looks like we have a HNS on hourly now too... and its about to break. Could be interesting.

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*** FRAUD is NOT a business model.
HOPE is not a business plan!
Zenthunder
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small reversal but I dont see a reason for it:

GS talking down the USD.. bleh..

Is someone buying bonds? That would do it as well - lemme check.

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*** FRAUD is NOT a business model.
HOPE is not a business plan!
Clarencebeeks
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Here is what I got - some kind of triangle-type thing.
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Zenthunder
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yep... good thing I took profit early.. sheesh.

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*** FRAUD is NOT a business model.
HOPE is not a business plan!
Zenthunder
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Looks like whatever caused the spike was done so very easily - the only thing I could find was GS talking down the dollar... Could be an interesting fakout here if the newspeople change their spin to dollar negative all the sudden to see how far they can move things... Being right lobger than half a day has been tough lately... smiley

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*** FRAUD is NOT a business model.
HOPE is not a business plan!
Zenthunder
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Media still calling for USD to gain, cable, AUD, NZD and EUR to top out and roll over.... Hmm.

What we *could* get is negative divergence here, this upward eur spike if it starts to roll over again will cause ssd and probably RSI/macd divergence (hourly) and be back in the direction of the newsflow... I will wait for SSD(5,3,3) to cross before trying another short, unless I see newsflow turning bullish suddenly or something...

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*** FRAUD is NOT a business model.
HOPE is not a business plan!
Zenthunder
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Scratch that - the only Divergence I would see is SSD, which I like anyway as an entry signal... Watching...

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*** FRAUD is NOT a business model.
HOPE is not a business plan!
Clarencebeeks
Posts: 1929
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Still looks within that triangle to me (made another touch with that last high)
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Zenthunder
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Good point - if I do get a short in I can ride it down to the line at least, and it gives me a fairly tight stop if I feel like it (lately wider has been better - rough stuff)

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*** FRAUD is NOT a business model.
HOPE is not a business plan!
Zenthunder
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Not really acting bearish yet - the bond sale could change the whole thing...

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*** FRAUD is NOT a business model.
HOPE is not a business plan!
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