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User Info Predicting Hank: The Next Shoe to Drop in forum [Credit]
Pel
Posts: 653
Incept: 2008-01-22
Green
Texas
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It's clear that "moral hazard" is considered by TPTB to be a very minor issue in this credit mess. They have bigger fish to fry, such as the imminent death of the entire MBS US housing market complex.

I'm trying to get inside their heads to understand what their line of thought is, and what is coming.

I think Hank increased the stakes and is playing chicken with foreign lenders. By making MBS == Treasuries, he's essentially doubled down the .gov position and seems to be putting foreign lenders on notice that they're on the hook for helping us resuscitate the MBS market, because they can't "refuse" to buy MBS since we'll just make up for the shortfall in treasuries, thus making them essentially the same.

I don't see how this can be a future-proof plan, though. Uncle Sam's balls will get smashed in a vice when foreign lenders stop buying even treasuries when the implosion continues. Hank has to know that.

So there must be another shoe to drop here.

Either Hank is looking for a temporary save to get us through inauguration, or there is another trick up their sleeves.

Perhaps something along the lines of a Ginnie Mae takeover, or something to do with a new covered bond scheme? Or a little of both? Fed to run down FRE/FNM portfolio while rolling a new amount of very conservative MBS through GNM with covered bond on the side to handle the riskier MBS in a Euro-US hybrid approach?

That almost sounds like a good idea.

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Federal Reserve Governor Fisher wrote..
"My dissenting vote last week was simply a difference of opinion about how far and how fast we might re-spike the monetary punchbowl."
Cmacaran
Posts: 254
Incept: 2008-07-22
Green
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I have to imaging, other than a few more bank failures and raising money for the FDIC, there won't be much else this year. Can we really afford to bail out any more private entities? I think just FDIC insurance/bank closures will keep Fed busy for the rest of the year.
Pel
Posts: 653
Incept: 2008-01-22
Green
Texas
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wow, I guess we can officially close this thread now.

Lehman money, AIG bailout, printing money, RTC2, short selling ban (although that last one was Cox's doing).

I'm afraid to even suggest, "What next?!"

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Federal Reserve Governor Fisher wrote..
"My dissenting vote last week was simply a difference of opinion about how far and how fast we might re-spike the monetary punchbowl."
Free
Posts: 3242
Incept: 2007-07-28
Green
The world
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Hope you're correct Pel, don't think we can take any more!!

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"Don't believe everything you hear and only half of what you see."
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