What does everyone think of this? This guy is extremely good and nailed the Credit Bubble for years. Just read his analysis towards the end of the post. In the last paragraph he seems to intimate that the dollar may be in for big trouble:

http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/com....

Well Noland predicted this bear market very accurately. I recall reading over a year ago that he expected the U.S. stock market to take a dive of somewhere around 40%... he was right about that.

I believe something big is going to happen very soon with the USD. Look at how the price of gold has quietly moved closer to breaking $900 an ounce.

I agree - I've been reading him for five years. He has been very analytical and really knows his stuff. My worry on gold has been that it could be a fake out and a descending triple top formation.

It is a really frustrating period - I look to a number of people I respect to try to get a feel for the markets and I've managed to have a decent handle - but now these people are all split down the middle - half expect deflation for the next 2-3 years and then a dollar devaluation, the other half expect the dollar to be devalued any day now (at least in '09).

I think it's pretty simple:

What do China and Japan get for giving the US 0% debt? Do they get a 5%, 10%, or 30% increase in exports, or nada?

I think WHEN the US consumer becomes the US saver, China and Japan will simply stop buying T's. They are stupid mercantilist countries, but they aren't suicidal.