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User Info M1 Multiplier goes BELOW 1.0 - WTF?? in forum [Monetary]
Pika-steph
Posts: 54703
Incept: 2007-09-11
Gold A True American Patriot!
Live Free Or Die; US Army Est. 1775
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Whoo hoo! Rally!

inline

2011-01-12  0.898
2011-01-26 0.883
2011-02-09 0.881
2011-02-23 0.820
2011-03-09 0.800
2011-03-23 0.770
2011-04-06 0.764
2011-04-20 0.740
2011-05-04 0.767
2011-05-18 0.742
2011-06-01 0.743
2011-06-15 0.719
2011-06-29 0.737

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Stop the Looting; Start Prosecuting - http://www.FedUpUSA.org/
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"The only regulation that really works is failure."--Rick Santelli
Josecitomadera
Posts: 554
Incept: 2009-03-20

Miami
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Quote:
*Again*, MULT hasn't meant a damn thing since the Fed started paying interest on reserves held there. Real velocity is ~1.4.


I see the logic in this statement. The central banks will do everything they can to restore equilibrium.

If they can balance out a dropping MULT by paying interest, then they'll neutralize the effect of a MULT going to zero therefore averting collapse.

They have become quite adept at this. This is why pre-Nazi Germany descended into hyperinflation as soon as the printing presses went amok and we haven't.

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What do I know, I'm only an ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT.

Pika-steph
Posts: 54703
Incept: 2007-09-11
Gold A True American Patriot!
Live Free Or Die; US Army Est. 1775
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Quote:
They have become quite adept at this. This is why pre-Nazi Germany descended into hyperinflation as soon as the printing presses went amok and we haven't.
Uh....no. Nazi Germany went into hyperinflation because their debt was denominated in FOREIGN currency.

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Stop the Looting; Start Prosecuting - http://www.FedUpUSA.org/
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"The only regulation that really works is failure."--Rick Santelli
Josecitomadera
Posts: 554
Incept: 2009-03-20

Miami
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Quote:
Uh....no. Nazi Germany went into hyperinflation because their debt was denominated in FOREIGN currency.


OK, how long did it take from their equivalent of a Lehman or other definitive crisis event to their hyper-inflationary environment?

Since the current financial crisis began in the FALL of '08, it has been over three years now where TPTB have contained the crisis. By this I mean we have not had the similar series of events prior to WW2 yet- the Great Depression and all of its secondary effects, political upheaval, the rise of dictatorships, etc.

If in our current time period, the central banks have postponed the final collapse longer than during the prior periods, TPTB have gotten better at containing crisis even if the final outcome is collapse. And if they have been able to contain major crises longer than in the past, no one can preclude the possibility that they might be able to contain it longer than those who have been calling for its immediate demise.

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What do I know, I'm only an ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT.
Corn1945
Posts: 4167
Incept: 2009-04-30
Green
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Prices of gold and silver say otherwise.
Pika-steph
Posts: 54703
Incept: 2007-09-11
Gold A True American Patriot!
Live Free Or Die; US Army Est. 1775
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inline


2011-01-12 0.896
2011-01-26 0.882
2011-02-09 0.880
2011-02-23 0.819
2011-03-09 0.800
2011-03-23 0.770
2011-04-06 0.764
2011-04-20 0.739
2011-05-04 0.766
2011-05-18 0.740
2011-06-01 0.741
2011-06-15 0.717
2011-06-29 0.735
2011-07-13 0.729


And headed back down.

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Stop the Looting; Start Prosecuting - http://www.FedUpUSA.org/
inline
"The only regulation that really works is failure."--Rick Santelli
Widgeon
Posts: 13481
Incept: 2007-08-30
Green
Region formerly known as the United States
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0.733

Paint Drying
Pika-steph
Posts: 54703
Incept: 2007-09-11
Gold A True American Patriot!
Live Free Or Die; US Army Est. 1775
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inline

2011-01-12  0.896
2011-01-26 0.882
2011-02-09 0.880
2011-02-23 0.819
2011-03-09 0.800
2011-03-23 0.770
2011-04-06 0.764
2011-04-20 0.739
2011-05-04 0.766
2011-05-18 0.740
2011-06-01 0.741
2011-06-15 0.717
2011-06-29 0.735
2011-07-13 0.729
2011-07-27 0.733

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Stop the Looting; Start Prosecuting - http://www.FedUpUSA.org/
inline
"The only regulation that really works is failure."--Rick Santelli
Ursus-horribilis
Posts: 828
Incept: 2008-03-16
Green
Carmel, CA
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Slow motion train wreck.

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"There is a lot of support at zero." - Art Cashin
Colk55
Posts: 2415
Incept: 2010-02-11
Green
Indiana
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The M1M gets wood. Well, a splinter.

2011-06-15: 0.717
2011-06-29: 0.735
2011-07-13: 0.729
2011-07-27: 0.733
2011-08-10: 0.776


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The politician's motto: If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bull****.
Chris92346
Posts: 1314
Incept: 2009-03-25

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The curve seems to be flattening


(I can be an optimist can't it?)
Resistance
Posts: 6162
Incept: 2008-09-26
Green

Banned
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If it's anything less than one, then the only thing to be optimistic about is whether or not you'll get a piece of corn, or two, in your **** sandwich.

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"Why must political experiments always be in the direction of more government? Why not give the free market a county or even a state or two, and see what it can accomplish?"Murray Rothbard - The Fallacy of the Public Sector
Colk55
Posts: 2415
Incept: 2010-02-11
Green
Indiana
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Small move up:

2011-06-29: 0.735
2011-07-13: 0.729
2011-07-27: 0.733
2011-08-10: 0.776
2011-08-24: 0.779

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The politician's motto: If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bull****.
Josecitomadera
Posts: 554
Incept: 2009-03-20

Miami
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If it would have continued its 2009 trajectory, it would be at ZERO now. They have stabilized the situation and kept it within a declining range for 2 years now. Of course, it continues to decline but the acceleration has declined massively with respect to its 2009 freefall.

Its 2009 velocity was a free fall. Looking at the chart, they have maintained it between a .2 range which declines by .2 about every year except for 2010 so it maybe an alternating pattern varying between .2 and .1.

2009- between 1.0 and .8
2010- between .8 and .9
2011- between .9 and .7

It's three year average declines at a rate of .1.At its current rate, it would take 7 years to reach ZERO-2018.

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What do I know, I'm only an ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT.
Lemonaid
Posts: 9879
Incept: 2008-01-20
Green
Metro Detroit
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Anything less than parity is FAIL. It means any new liquidity causes more net deflation of the aggregate of all dollar denominated assets.

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"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." Ludwig von Mises
Mayorquimby
Posts: 13909
Incept: 2008-09-18
Green
The Archaic Past
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2011-09-07: 0.797

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Pika-steph
Posts: 54703
Incept: 2007-09-11
Gold A True American Patriot!
Live Free Or Die; US Army Est. 1775
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What Lemonaid said.

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Stop the Looting; Start Prosecuting - http://www.FedUpUSA.org/
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"The only regulation that really works is failure."--Rick Santelli
Colk55
Posts: 2415
Incept: 2010-02-11
Green
Indiana
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With the talk of how it relates to the monetary base, I thought I would add this:



I don't know that I would call that stabilized, as the decline is still evident. If you really look at it, it's continuing the same trajectory it was on from the early 90s until today.

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The politician's motto: If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bull****.
Mayorquimby
Posts: 13909
Incept: 2008-09-18
Green
The Archaic Past
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Default bad debts and excessive credit and after prices drop 60 percent or more, people with CASH will step up and get commerce flowing again.

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Iridiculous
Posts: 103
Incept: 2009-12-05
Green
Seattle
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So what is propping up M1 this summer? Is it be related to home sales, which generally get a boost during this time of year?
Lemonaid
Posts: 9879
Incept: 2008-01-20
Green
Metro Detroit
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Somewhat strengthening dollar after 6 when QE2 ended.


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"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." Ludwig von Mises

Mayorquimby
Posts: 13909
Incept: 2008-09-18
Green
The Archaic Past
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2011-09-21: 0.784

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Colk55
Posts: 2415
Incept: 2010-02-11
Green
Indiana
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2011-08-10: 0.775
2011-08-24: 0.778
2011-09-07: 0.796
2011-09-21: 0.783
2011-10-05: 0.812

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The politician's motto: If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bull****.
Mayorquimby
Posts: 13909
Incept: 2008-09-18
Green
The Archaic Past
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2011-10-19: 0.798

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Widgeon
Posts: 13481
Incept: 2007-08-30
Green
Region formerly known as the United States
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0.810
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