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2021 NY Resolution: Take your mask and shove it up your ass.
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User Info FRAUDCI Just Admitted I WAS RIGHT ALL ALONG; entered at 2020-08-13 09:38:43
Tickerguy
Posts: 170553
Registered: 2007-06-26
Just go over here and plug in your favorite state: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/nor....

Then go down and do the basic math. Get the peak day, go down the table, get the positive rate and divide into population which you can look up.

Every single one rolls in the same place, irrespective of constraints; there's a demographic skew which I suspect doesn't change attack rate (that would not be logical) but DOES change the percentage split between asymptomatic and symptomatic. The demographic split may be more associated with comorbidities but I would actually bet against that given counties like this one where the prevalence of obesity is very high, yet it's also very not-black, so best guess is that there's a demographic difference in ACE2 expression, which we know is in fact the case.

Then go look at counties if you want. The same holds. Some states make that easy and others make it difficult or impossible. Tennessee makes it reasonably easy. Go look at my Twatter handle; I've been posting the charts on the counties there, or the Sevier County one here.

It's happened exactly where I predicted it would everywhere I look. I've been trying to falsify this hypothesis, which I put forward back in March, since New York rolled over months ago and have been unable to do it. Hitting suppression doesn't mean you don't still get infections -- you do, obviously. But it means the so-called "detonation" everyone was screaming about isn't possible and in fact never was, because the susceptible population percentage was never high enough. This also explains why with an R0 of 3.0 we never saw Rt figures materially over 2 as soon as the first few infections too place in a given state; we were seeing suppression right up front.

I pointed all this out in March; that the curve rates we were seeing didn't match the geometric predictions, and thus there HAD TO BE some sort of existing resistance. With the cruise ships and then nursing homes it became even more-obvious since both are forced-inoculation environments, never mind your residence if there are other people living there and you get it. Forced-inoculation environments violate the basic precept of "herds", which is that transmission odds are due to random contacts; if you force a susceptible person to be around someone who is infected THEY WILL GET IT EVERY TIME.

Last modified: 2020-08-13 09:41:18 by tickerguy

2020-08-13 09:38:43