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User Info	On Bulls and Bears (Markets, that is); entered at 2007-09-09 02:29:36
Genesis Posts: 130798 Registered: 2007-06-26	If you're a long-term investor and are not interested in active trading (and there IS an argument for this approach - realize the TAX IMPLICATIONS between long term cap gains .vs. ordinary income!) you can simply go to cash for bears and be invested in equities in bulls. This will positively shellec the averages over long periods of time. If you cannot be on top of the markets in a bear, you should get the ** out. It is very, very hard to make money in a bear market unless you are trading it actively. In fact, most people who THINK they can do so successfully actually LOSE money! Now they might lose LESS than if they stayed in (which isn't horrible if you think about it) but you lose zero in cash! (This is all ex-inflation, of course - inflation waits for nobody.) I would not go anywhere near housing yet. R/E is a horrible place to be right now and with the exception of a few very special circumstances you're way early. R/E is a ty investment unless you can catch it well below market value in ANY environment other than an inflating bubble like we had the last 3-4 years - any other time, over long periods of time, it sucks ass when carrying costs and all are counted. (Yes, I know people think they're making a **load in R/E. Absent those special circumstances when you buy, that's a total crock. Virtually all of them would totally destroy their R/E profits had they been in the market instead. The exceptions are during "bubble" times like we had recently. And no, using leverage and comparing against unleveraged returns in equities does not count.) 2007-09-09 02:29:36