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|User Info||... o O ( that could never happen...) ; entered at 2008-07-23 22:57:47|
Well, here we are. I know many on this forum said we could never get here, wouldn't happen couldn't happen. The US wouldnt try to nationalize the losses because they couldn't. Look at the math I was told, it's below zero so it cant be done. Well here we are. |
Hopefully I can ask this question and not be tarr'd and feather'd by the forum community for daring to doubt the shared wisdom of the group. I simply think for myself and what I'm seeing and what I'm reading dont jive. It doesn't jive from Paulson, from CNBC, or quite frankly even from here.
First, lets talk TNX. I'v been watching the TNX, the TLT, the IRX and nothing really seems that out of line. In fact, if you look at the [url=http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?i....ATR] [/url] for TNX you'll see its 0.952 today... which is not much volatility. In fact back in March it was above 1.25. We are not seeing a drastic surge in long bonds in the past few days that is anything out of character with the recent rally in the markets.
Now, maybe bond vigilantes. The wisdom here was that the US governent would not nationalize because they were afraid of the repercussions. Do you think the financial community. (THE VERY ONES BEING BAILED OUT) are going to rock the boat and sink this ship? Perhaps this just wont happen to government debt as everyone here is soo sure.
Here's another one, lets talk dollar. If were looking at taking on 800billion in debt to our tapped out taxpayers our dollar should be CRATERING right? We cant debase our currency and keep gaining. Please, please explain this phenomenon. It's gone up for nearly 5 days straight. On what, a FNM/FRE bailout?
Next, I just want to re-iterate a point I made before. The reason many people do not attend the rallies (myself included) is because you have lost much credibility with constant and incessant "this is it" nuclear bomb dropping "its now or never" and yet the world keeps turning. Your the proverbial boy who cried wolf.. only you did it in a drunken sailor swearing rant every day for a year. Its no surprise you won't have 5,000 people at your rallies, or even 500 for that matter. You refuse logical questions instead insist on attacking anyone who you feel threatens you. The real*****er is I think you understand many many problems. Your right alot, you just completely refuse to accept any possibility other than your own.