I'm sure everyone saw the geopolitics thread about North Korea,,,,,

If not http://tickerforum.org/akcs-www?post=188....

Something smells fishy with the number of acres of corn planted.

That's what drove it LLD yesterday, and damn close to it today too.

The meats are notorious for changing numbers and expectations, the FDA almost never gets it wrong. It's this admin and the bull#### they have going on.

NOAA predicts continued flooding, above-normal rainfall in upper Midwest
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Jul. 6, 2011 3:14pm

NOAA's National Weather Service reports that the upper Midwest and Northern Plains will see a high threat of continued flooding through the summer. Rivers are full and the soil is saturated so any additional rain has no where to go but out of the river banks.

f you farm in the upper Midwest or northern Plains, the chance of more rivers flooding is very high this summer. NOAA’s National Weather Service issued a warning today that rivers in these areas are at high risk for flooding throughout the summer.

Rivers are running at high levels and soils are completely saturated. Just a small amount of rain will trigger more flooding, including areas that have already been flooded, NOAA says.

Above-normal rain is being forecast in these vulnerable areas during the next couple weeks by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Continued above-normal rain also fills the forecast for the one- and three-month outlooks. In addition, higher temperatures in the Rockies will melt more snowpack and release more water.

“The sponge is fully saturated – there is nowhere for any additional water to go,” said Jack Hayes, NOAA’s National Weather Service director. “While unusual for this time of year, all signs point to the flood threat continuing through summer.”

As a result, forecasters suggest that this season will rival the great flood of 1993 when the upper Midwest endured persistent, record-breaking floods. More than nine states sustained $25 billion in flood damage (adjusted for inflation).

Throughout the rest of the summer, the highest flood risk areas include:

* Souris River in North Dakota

* Red River in North Dakota and Minnesota

* Minnesota River in Minnesota

* Upper Mississippi River in Minnesota and Iowa

* Des Moines River in Iowa

* Lower Missouri River in South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas and Missouri

* James and Big Sioux Rivers in North Dakota

* Lower Ohio River Valley including the White, Wabash and lower Ohio Rivers

* North Platte River in Colorado, Wyoming and Nebraska

* Yellowstone River in Wyoming and Montana

* Utah and Colorado

http://farmindustrynews.com/seed/noaa-pr....

"Something smells fishy with the number of acres of corn planted."

My bil who farms and grows corn among other things had a good chuckle when I brought this up to him the other day. He called it BS although he liked getting locked in at over $7 a bushel, his highest of all time. It was down about a buck a few days later.

I am long waiting to get longer. I am looking at this as a cup and handle at the bottom of the daily wheat chart on the break out. At the very least it looks to be bottoming big time.

Quote:

Padrino may like this, or has already seen it. I think this is a cup and handle at the bottom of the daily wheat chart. disc: already long - if it breaks out will get longer. will cross post to softs also

nice chart

something like this, a little bit more trading range below 714/718 then next leg up

I agree. Sideways longer and the move up will be better. Like Crude. Which is actually leading your wheat chart.

Anecdotal: Heavy rains in East Central ND are not helping the crops any, wish we could ship some water down south. What crops that got planted this spring looked good (new challenges - disease), challenge now will be to get to them (everything is surrounded by water) for harvest. My boss figures he's at 80% losses for the year. Insurance covers 65% of your last 10 year average so its not a complete loss but is going to hurt. He said this will impact next year as well as the ground is not getting a chance to dry out. We are being warned of another chance at 1-3 inches of rain this weekend. Oh and flood outlook for next spring is expect another high one.

Grand Forks, Fargo, Valley City are all going back to flood stage on the Sheyenne and Red Rivers. Im thinking they should have left their dikes up.

Bsax Thanks/ Anecdotal stuff all adds up Am long Wheat about to be stopped out on the dollar strength, but we'll see.

Nov beans trading around the 200 day moving avg......

Funny you point that out.... look where its trading in relation to its triangle pattern.

There is no way the crops in the northern hemisphere have made or will make the stated/expected production this year. The numbers are so far out of whack (from everyone, can't just pick on the USDA, they are stuck in this quagmire like everyone else) that we are going to get a rather large surprise at some point in time. When will this surprise be revealed? I have no idea. If history is any guide it will be after christmas sometime. I am expecting a greater spread from mgex to chicago on this one.

UHH...Take a gander at /OJ September futures chart

I'd love some informed commentary on this post. Altho the guy was talking about 2010, it seems to me it applies just as much to 2011. Where was he wrong ?

http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/12/20....

Quote:

These designations are based on the criteria of a minimum of 30 percent loss in the value of at least one crop in the county.

Many times that one crop can be pasture due to drought. In my case the crop can be tomatos /peppers due to a freeze that may not hurt the citrus or the sugar cane. In light of the economic situation, the USDA is quick to declare disasters as a kind of insurance. We've seen this since 2008. My local bank says the only thing keeping them going is Agriculture.

Total acreage of wheat planted in Montana is down by 600,000 from last year. And wheat production is expected to be around 180 million bushels which is 35 million bushels less than last year.

I would gladly send water south if I could. We got dumped on last Thurs/Friday again. Some places getting 5+ inches. I heard the other day a town west of me about 45 miles has had something like 4X the average rainfall for the entire year already. The wheat is ready to come off all around me but as you look down the fields all you see is water standing (under the heads, but in places entire fields are under water). I hear rumors of lots of track systems and rear assists being purchased and installed for combines due to anticipation of being stuck. The road restrictions will go on fast too so it's going to be very interesting how the crops will come off. The county/township roads are already pretty soft and or have water over them. I hate to think what a loaded semi or tractor + grain cart will do to them. Ugly doesn't begin to describe it.

Nov beans, Dec corn and wheat all have bullish engulfing candles. I think a little weather volatility may be in order. Also, at this point shouldn't private surveys of crop quality be starting to come out. I think we are going to start a bumpy ride. The only concern I actually have is that comparatively beans aren't as high price wise. Disclosure, long all three.

Well we had dry week, still seeing lots of stuck equipment. The harvest that has been done Im hearing yields are way down. Normal year barley runs 50-60 bushels per acre. I am hearing they are getting 15-20 bpa and quality is down.

A buddy just described his barley crop as "having the mange."

A patch of great crops in the province, a huge swath of **** crops. Going to be lots of "black pepper" canola this year.

Goodlander et al.. I always follow this thread, I know how important it is. What is "black pepper" canola?

Anecdotal,but we drove through central Illinois and there was just a lot of shabby corn and areas of ponding visible. Beans were hard to tell much about, but they looked short so probably lower yields, not sure at all about that.

learn: There were 100 degree temperatures during the flowering stage of a lot of the canola. When this occurs two things happen. 1) the plants flower for only a couple of days. As each flower is a pod there are going to be less pods which = less yield. 2) usually the pods that are formed do not produce big round seed, instead there are tiny shrivelled seeds that have no weight and very little oil content. The canola seed looks like ground black pepper. This makes combining difficult as you end up throwing a lot of the seed over the back of the combine. Canola is a cool season crop which is why the it is mostly seen in the northern regions.

#1 is a given, this is what always happens with too much heat at flowering. #2 usually happens with the heat however occasionally you will still get decent seed quality. Shrivelled seed also results in serious downward revisions 11 months into the future as the 10,000 bushel bin of canola that is reported to the statistics people weighs the same as a 7,000 bushel bin in a normal year. It also increases total bushel usage by the crushers due to decreased oil content. As with the rest of the grains quality impacts end user volumes and this is another reason for the revisions that are often made 11 months after a crop is harvested.

Does that explain it?

Very well, thank you.
Canola oil will be more expensive. No? It does have a shelf life about 2 years. Stock up on some now. You could barter it before it goes bad. Whole wheat bread requires oil. Bread will go up..along with anything else you need to use oil for. Does that conclusion make sense?