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User Info	AUD in forum [FX]
Lowpdop Posts: 281 Incept: 2008-01-18	Starting to break down against dollar and yen...even though USD weak....maybe setting up for the big AUD flush soon, which coincides with many calls for near S&P correction......very short AUD Good analysis 6 minutes to the end of video with AUD crosses as well as S&P and exactly my view of the chart; same bet I have been buying/seeing develop over the same week at the very least for a hedge over next 4 weeks...S&P corrects AUD is set up for free fall IMO. http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/techn.... Last modified: 2011-01-21 21:17:43 by lowpdop 2011-01-21 21:05:25 Permalink
Downside Posts: 1797 Incept: 2007-12-16 Left Coast	Commodity/Stock/FX/Gold/BRIC/Derivative/Bond/Beanie Baby deflation imminent! ---------- “Sometimes a concept is baffling not because it is profound but because it's wrong.” - Edward O. Wilson "Hardly anyone will understand a genuinely novel idea and no one will believe it works." "After home prices go down to one-tenth of the highest price homeowners paid, then buy." - Sir John Templeton 2011-01-21 22:36:14 From PDA Permalink
Iflyjetzzz Posts: 8876 Incept: 2007-07-29 Tucson, AZ	I've been long AUD for a couple of weeks. What a rocket ride! I wouldn't be surprised to see it break 1.10 soon. I'll just keep riding the wave. You can't do technical analysis worth a crap on the AUDUSD pair though, as it's at levels that haven't been seen in 30 years. http://monexbandung.blogspot.com/2011/04.... ---------- When the facts change, I change my mind, sir. What do you do? 2011-04-26 23:02:09 Permalink
Riceball Posts: 2263 Incept: 2008-03-20 Palo Alto, CA	AUD is in no-man's land right now, because it was only floated since 1983 (so I tend to ignore pre-1983 pegged rates). Right now we are already at historical high ever for AUD the freely floated currency. 2011-04-27 01:30:27 Permalink
Iflyjetzzz Posts: 8876 Incept: 2007-07-29 Tucson, AZ	I just sold out my position. I'm going into the Fed minutes + Bernanke conference flat. Riceball, I look at this trade as being driven by the USD. The AUD seems to be stable compared to other currency crosses. I chose the AUD for the positive carry and I prefer the AUD over the EUR. ---------- When the facts change, I change my mind, sir. What do you do? 2011-04-27 11:34:03 Permalink
Kelly Posts: 474 Incept: 2007-07-23 Seattle, WA	Ifly, the correlation between the AUD/USD and the S&P is at all time highs. It isn't tied to fundamentals anymore and acts as the USD/JPY once did as a proxy for risk aversion. K ---------- It wouldn't be any fun without a crisis. 2011-04-27 13:07:24 Permalink
Asimov Posts: 103872 Incept: 2007-08-26 East Tennessee Eastern Time	USD short carry is just about as strong as the yen short carry. ---------- It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity. If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente. 2011-04-27 13:14:21 Permalink
Riceball Posts: 2263 Incept: 2008-03-20 Palo Alto, CA	Ifly, http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/hist-ex.... here the data from RBA of AUD dating back to when it started floating in 1983, the cross rates between AUD and other major currencies changed a LOT (except CAD, which is also a commodity-based currency) Right now it is at almost an all-time high vs lots of currencies. I am thinking of taking profit, but I need to see if RBA will raise rates, which will provide further support. 2011-04-27 16:46:03 Permalink
Provocateur Posts: 651 Incept: 2007-09-06 Melbourne, Australia	You guys are playing with fire, methinks. 2011-04-27 21:17:59 Permalink
Norman Posts: 13 Incept: 2010-05-27 Australia	I think at least 1 or 2 rate rises would be already priced in to the Aussie, but I'm not so sure they will come. The state of WA, the major commodity producer in the country, is in a technical recession. Queensland, the other big mining state is not looking too good either. With the right setup it could be a great short. 2011-04-27 23:44:29 Permalink
Iflyjetzzz Posts: 8876 Incept: 2007-07-29 Tucson, AZ	I'm on the sidelines right now. Too much of a runup in a short time. I'd like to see it back around 1.08. ---------- When the facts change, I change my mind, sir. What do you do? 2011-04-28 08:45:38 Permalink
Kelly Posts: 474 Incept: 2007-07-23 Seattle, WA	The question is: is there a technical correction coming in the USD? I think so, but ****** I can't think of any fundamental support for the FRN. K ---------- It wouldn't be any fun without a crisis. 2011-04-28 17:41:33 Permalink
Iflyjetzzz Posts: 8876 Incept: 2007-07-29 Tucson, AZ	I waded back in early today and am now back to trading around a core position. ---------- When the facts change, I change my mind, sir. What do you do? 2011-04-28 23:13:39 Permalink