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User Info Economic impact of japanese disaster. in forum [General]
Particenens
Posts: 9669
Incept: 2008-01-16
Gold
Peak Bund
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last update

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A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining, but wants it back the minute it begins to rain
Asimov
Posts: 103906
Incept: 2007-08-26
Gold
East Tennessee Eastern Time
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Japan supply paralysis spreads as firms cut output: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/03/22....

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Particenens
Posts: 9669
Incept: 2008-01-16
Gold
Peak Bund
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A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining, but wants it back the minute it begins to rain
Asimov
Posts: 103906
Incept: 2007-08-26
Gold
East Tennessee Eastern Time
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Wow, thanks for that padrino. Good read.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Argos
Posts: 6312
Incept: 2008-03-23
Gold
The Green Mountain State
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http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=....

Partial quote:

Quote:
Japan’s government estimated the damage from this month’s record earthquake and tsunami at as much as 25 trillion yen ($309 billion), . . .

. . . The destruction will push down gross domestic product by as much as 2.75 trillion yen for the year starting April 1, today’s report showed. The figure, about 0.5 percent of the 530 trillion yen economy, reflects a decline in production from supply disruptions and damage to corporate facilities without taking into account the effects of possible power outages.
Bogey
Posts: 1302
Incept: 2008-03-12
Green
Montana
Banned
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When you factor in the printing, seems like they come out ahead. Whaddya know!

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I don't mind Obama so much. It's the people in power that I can't stand.
Particenens
Posts: 9669
Incept: 2008-01-16
Gold
Peak Bund
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Platts oil
ExxonMobil restored all four of its Japan Group refineries to full ops, and units are running over & above normal rates to meet high demand.

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A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining, but wants it back the minute it begins to rain
Patmcgroin
Posts: 8219
Incept: 2007-09-12

Chicago
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This is not priced in. Had another conversation today with a Chicago hi-tech manufacturer- they'll be idled next week (optimistically) for six weeks to two months. Kanban hurt them. And they're not the kind of inputs you just 'go have made in China'.

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"I know a few arcane, obscure financial acronyms that the general public doesn't know and that's about it."
Mo
Posts: 12158
Incept: 2007-06-26
Silver
Pa.
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What's to price in? The stock market is totally disconnected from the economy and Ben will just print up some more money for the bankers and hedge funds to speculate.

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Welcome to Pottersville
Patmcgroin
Posts: 8219
Incept: 2007-09-12

Chicago
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Fair point.

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"I know a few arcane, obscure financial acronyms that the general public doesn't know and that's about it."
Argos
Posts: 6312
Incept: 2008-03-23
Gold
The Green Mountain State
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Toyota Motor advises plants in the US, "prepare to shut down":

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Toyota-tel....


Asimov
Posts: 103906
Incept: 2007-08-26
Gold
East Tennessee Eastern Time
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Over 3/4 of factories in japan effected by disaster.

33.1% building damage
29.5% unable to do business
17% (I think) affected by lack of utilities

Reported on NHK.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.

Rvacha
Posts: 8295
Incept: 2008-10-03
Gold
Cleveland
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Quote:
This is not priced in. Had another conversation today with a Chicago hi-tech manufacturer- they'll be idled next week (optimistically) for six weeks to two months. Kanban hurt them. And they're not the kind of inputs you just 'go have made in China'.

It is absolutely not priced in. My company which I am sure is typical of other semiconductor companies is seeing lots of our customers doing panic buying and we don't even have facilities in Japan. The shortages and long leadtimes are real in several areas, but customers are panic buying even from suppliers like us that have little to no exposure. Some of this stuff simply cannot be transferred elsewhere in the short term. For example TI's sole DLP factory was in Japan. It utilizes special fabrication techniques and has 100% unique electrooptical test equipment and procedures. It's not moving anywhere. In other more commodity areas, such as NAND memory that is quite transferable from the customer perspective, the problem is limited supply globally

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"I suggest you panic." - Hugh Hendry

Rvacha
Posts: 8295
Incept: 2008-10-03
Gold
Cleveland
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Kyodo: NEWS ADVISORY: 8 Japan automakers unable to produce 356,600 cars after quake

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"I suggest you panic." - Hugh Hendry
End_the_bubbles
Posts: 9519
Incept: 2009-03-25
Green
The New 3rd World
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Here are eyewitness photos of the devastation in Shichigahama, shot by Rod Thomas:

http://rodthomas.drivehq.com/mission/Tsu....



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In the long run even the most despotic governments with all their brutality and cruelty are no match for ideas. Eventually the ideology that has won the support of the majority will prevail and cut the ground from under the tyrant's feet and rise in rebellion to overthrow their masters.
Johnny_crab
Posts: 1936
Incept: 2008-10-09
Gold
Boonieland south Texas
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Economic fallout locally as one of the investors is now BK.
The existing plant is about a 30 minute ride from here.

Quote:
In October 2010, the South Texas Project announced that the Tokyo Electric Power Company, or TEPCO, had entered into an agreement with Nuclear Innovation North America (a joint venture between the reactor manufacturer, Toshiba, and plant partner NRG Energy) which was the largest of the two stakeholders in the proposed reactors, to purchase an initial 9.2375% stake in the expansion for $125 Million, and $30 Million for an option to purchase an additional stake in the new units for $125 Million more (resulting in approximately 18% ownership by TEPCO, or 500MW of generation capacity).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Texas....

Local papers ran this yesterday saying STP may have to look for other investors if TEPCO cannot follow through. My guess is STP is SOL unless TEPCO already parked those millions somewhere untouchable by Japanese courts.

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If you want to know truth, start by turning off your television.

"They didn't just***** in the coffee, they took a **** on the hood of a '73 Eldo, let it bake in the DC sun, ground it up and sold it to us as coffee."--Duc888
Mo
Posts: 12158
Incept: 2007-06-26
Silver
Pa.
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March 25, 2011, 4:18 p.m. EDT
Japan reinsurance prices may surge 50%
Industry contacts expect a 20% increase, but analyst sees bigger jump
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch

Quote:
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — The cost of reinsurance in Japan could surge 50% or more after losses from the March 11 earthquake drain capital from this part of the industry, Barclays Capital insurance analyst Jay Gelb said Friday.

The global property-casualty insurance industry has likely suffered about $50 billion of insured losses from a spate of big natural disasters since the third quarter of last year, Gelb estimated in a note to investors.


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/japan-r....


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Welcome to Pottersville
Nuke_engineer
Posts: 2698
Incept: 2007-08-19
Green
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Now here's a wild theoretical for you folks.

The IAEA calls up the UN and says: "If we can't get this radioactive material in a safe place packed in safe containers the entire Pacific rim could eventually be contaminated. The only place known that could store this stuff is Yucca Flats."

The UN calls up the IMF. IMF calls our Teleprompter in Chief:

"Teleprompter in Chief, we have a multinational economic and political problem. Japan, China, the US and Latin America along with Indonesia will take a heavy hit unless you get that radioactive waste out of Fukushima, pack it up nice and store it deep in Yucca Flats. How about helping us out here?"

To which Teleprompter in Chief responds:

"Guys, I'm all willing to help, but I have a major problem with this idiot the Bernank and his buddy Paulson who sold their souls to the banksters, and I can't cover for them much longer. He has screwed up things royally from an economic point of view. I'm too busy and the American people don't want to be charitable and use Yucca Flats to fix a Jap problem."

To which the IMF says:

"Teleprompter in Chief, will maybe 4 Trillion plus expenses of operation cover the inconvenience and political exposure of moving this waste to Yucca Flats and saving the Pacific Rim? You're the only country that has such a massive facility with plenty of studies, etc. The Swedes could do it, but we can't bribe them since their banksters were kept at bay, unfortunately."

To which the Teleprompter in Chief says:

"Let me call Hillary and Boehner, seems like we have a good base for negotiations to the start to a wonderful new globalist solution to our problem! Could we call it the Obama Nuclear Reparations Plan like the Marshall War Reparations Plan for posterity?"

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Trading and investing is understanding about people, emotions and corruption of government, corporations, banks and people using propaganda, lies, mathematics and bankster logic working against you.

Ben
Posts: 6194
Incept: 2009-10-09
Silver
The Distant, Glorious, Past
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@Nuke_E.

Damn. Clever Trevor.

Current Tsy Holdings:
China, Mainland 1154.7
Japan 885.9


2.04 Trillion

+135 for that post.

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"Why are you going to learn French?"
"Because I'm going to France," says Joe.
"I'm from the future. You should go to China."

Drench
Posts: 28631
Incept: 2009-11-10
Green
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Quote:
Japanese automakers will consider running their factories in rotation to help cut the industry's electricity consumption amid power shortages created by a quake-crippled nuclear plant, sources familiar with the matter said Saturday.

Rotating production has been proposed as the carmakers want to avoid power being rationed to the industry by utility companies, as scheduled blackouts would significantly lower efficiency at their factories, the sources said.

Rather than experiencing scheduled power outages, the manufacturers want to secure stable electricity supplies for their factories in exchange for cutting the industry's overall power consumption by rotating production, they said.

The automakers are expected to hold a consultative meeting shortly at the office of the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association to agree a rotational schedule, they said.

Other industrial sectors could follow suit as they are also facing electricity rationing in some parts of the country following a series of explosions and fires at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant operated by Tokyo Electric Power Co.

Within the auto industry, metal-casting facilities are especially affected by scheduled blackouts, as they need considerable time to boot up after an outage halts their operations, they said. A blackout lasting three hours would lead to the suspension of operations at such a facility of nine hours.

In addition, the production of semiconductor chips for use in automobiles is viewed as effectively impossible without a stable power supply.
http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03....
Marc2mrkt
Posts: 369
Incept: 2008-04-12
Green
Taipei
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@Nuke, Because Japan is a Rockefeller/Trilateral Commission member, I would think Obama's mentor Brzezinski is already working on some deal.

Anyway, here are a couple of interesting podcasts about the economic effects on Japan. The first one is by a Hong Kong Analyst with close Japanese ties. He also discusses inflation and the social unrest factor in China.

http://www.financialsense.com/financial-....
mp3: http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fs....

Also Jim Willie's take on Japan:
mp3: http://www.contraryinvestorscafe.com/wp-....

Lastly an article about the recovery of the Japanese rice fields:
http://taipeitimes.com/News/world/archiv....
Abn0rmal
Posts: 9261
Incept: 2009-01-10
Green A True American Patriot!
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I like to put amounts of energy in perspective by comparing it to physical exertion.

Japan is missing 11 GW of electrical capacity, which is about as much sustained power 350 million people could produce via manual labor.

So if you imagine how much physical work the entire population of the US could do the equivalent of that is now unavailable to the Japanese economy until that electrical capacity is replaced.
Edn
Posts: 314
Incept: 2009-01-13

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The odds of Tokyo having to be evacuated continues to increase. It will only take a wind shift in the wrong direction with the breached reactor cores spewing nasty stuff to make this necessary.

And in that scenario, anybody with ties to the Japanese economy or their massive debt is going to be adversely affected. It was just a few weeks ago there was discussion about what currencies would make sense in a basket to form the IMF SDR's. Right now, nobody would think of including the Japanese Yen until this mess is sorted out and resolved.

Given TEPCO's deliberate withholding of information and down playing of this and that... I'm thinking it is more and more likely there is going to be an emergency scramble to get people out of Tokyo. Governments need to learn that with the internet, people can figure out when they are lying. The people may not know the exact details of the situation, but eventually, the people figure out they can't trust the government.

I think we are now at that point in Japan. It is now clear that 'they' know stuff that they do not want the population to know.

I'm guessing with the facts we do know now there is a 5% chance Tokyo will need to be evacuated, and if that happens, it will leave a big smoking hole in the global economy.

What are other people's thinking on this? Is my 5% gut hunch too high? Am I over estimating Tokyo's importance to the Japanese economy?




Particenens
Posts: 9669
Incept: 2008-01-16
Gold
Peak Bund
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A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining, but wants it back the minute it begins to rain
Asimov
Posts: 103906
Incept: 2007-08-26
Gold
East Tennessee Eastern Time
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Pigment Shortage Hits Auto Makers

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424....

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
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