Iran prepares bill to bar foreign warships from Persian Gulf

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/midd....

Iran has a nuke. No other reason to so aggressively confront our navy. They truly believe they have the upper hand in a confrontation.

Most likely they intend to detonate it near a carrier in the straight. Most likely they'll load it on a fast patrol boat and get within 500 yards (like they frequently do) and then boom...the biggest sucker punch ever recorded.

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Most likely they'll load it on a fast patrol boat and get within 500 yards (like they frequently do) and then boom...the biggest sucker punch ever recorded.

...and then Tehran would be sawdust. They don't do that.

Gold breaking out

Yep, Tehran would be a glass bowl if they did that.

I do think they're responding exactly the way the power elite wants them to to get the war they want.

I do not believe that the current cic (not capitalized for a reason) is way too much of a puss to ever retaliate by nuking Terhain (sp?) if they nuked a carrier. But I believe that you are correct that it would be the opening that they want for a long costly land war to keep the MIC humming along (disclosure, I do work for the MIC).

Folks, the mullahs are not going to nuke a carrier.

If they were to do something like that they would nuke the oil ports and facilities of SA or nuke somewhere in Israel.

Think about the outcome of nuking a carrier. 5000+ (minimum) american soliders dead. That is all. (yes horrible but ...)

SA oil facilities and ports nuked - Every person in the west would be very, very, very negatively affected for more than just a day or two to say the least.

If Israel is hit all (ok a great percentage of) the muslims in the world will rejoice and you will have possibly millions dead/dying in Israel.

If I know that by doing something I will be essientially commiting (national) suicide I will want to do the thing that does the most damage to my enemy.

Nuking even an entire US carrier battle group is not it.

You can't nuke a city of civilians in retaliation for the nuking of a purely military target like a carrier at sea. Well, you can, but it means the enemy now has carte blanche to open up with any crazy **** you or they can imagine. It takes a lot of crazy **** to equal even one nuked city full of civilians and there isn't really a statute of limitations on revenge for genocide-level collateral damage. It's cool and all to show the whites of our eyes, flare our nostrils, and say we'll go bat**** crazy with no thought to consequences if challenged in that manner, but the consequences will still be there. Let's hope everything stays conventional.

Iran has mentioned hitting 30+ bases within range if problems start. That's their only medium-term survival option assuming they make it through the short term- try to badly damage the US's ability to project force into the theatre of operations. Long-term? Eh the US can go on rationing, build as many ships as needed and project the desired force. Japan got to see how that worked out.

Much of industry was in place then but is now in china ,mexico

scrap metal going out also,this is internal to break america

congress and senate as fools do nothing thinking they are protected

The Japanese were warned by their military commanders that Perl Harbor meant the destruction of their country...they proceeded anyway. They lost every major city in their country and millions of lives...they proceeded anyway.

Russia had to invade Manchuria and two cities vaporized before they reluctantly surrendered. It took the emperor's intervention to stop the (quite successful) guerrilla resistance to our occupation.

Do NOT underestimate fanatics.

Iran WANTS this confrontation to escalate. Thus they feel they have a superior position. If they didn't feel this way, they would go back to their fake negotiation and stalling tactics. This is not occuring. Dialog is NOT being pursued.

Their conventional forces are no match for our own so the logical deduction is that they have and are willing to use nuclear weapons. Or that they have superior conventional forces that we are unaware of.

Nuking a carrier would be an awesome show of strength. Iran would instantly have the "Arab street" on their side. It's possible that invading Iranian soldiers would even be welcomed in many countries (Qatar, Saudi Arabia, etc.)

And they might calculate that since their oil is embargoed that losing the processing plants is not a big deal...especially if they can launch an overland thrust into Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia Perhaps clearing the way with chemical attacks?

I feel we're backing an opponent into a corner and underestimating their ability to cross certain moral boundaries.

Chemical, Nuclear, Human waves, anything goes..no concern for their own losses. Countries that send kids running though minefields so soldiers don't have to waste time clearing them do NOT fret over civilian casualties.

Missile barrages into Israel (gonna lose Syria might as well use those chemical weapons they've got).

We need to be extremely careful and instead we're being very arrogant. I hope our planners understand exactly what they're about to get themselves into.

If Iran has one or more nukes they WILL first strike with them. How about Turkey, will that Muslim country turn on us and invade Greece / attack Cyprus? Could we handle an invasion of Southern Europe? It's a ripe target as Libya has exposed.

Things could unravel quickly if we lose a large portion of the 5th fleet. We are in a very bad position in that we have a lot of smaller enemies waiting for a sign of weakness, like a lion surrounded by Hyenas.

Several fronts at once would break our ability to contain things...Russia invading Georgia, Serbia settling old scores, China vs. Vietnam / Taiwan, N Korea invading S. Korea...if we're perceived as taking major losses in the Persian Gulf the possibilities are almost endless.

Kind of like our financial situation. By trying to prevent ANY conflicts we've set the stage for MASSIVE conflicts.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/219346.html

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The US military is preparing a massive military campaign against Iran, sending thousands of American troops, warships and weaponry to Israel.

An unnamed source said the military deployment of US anti-missile ships and accompanying support personnel will occur in January and later this spring, Global Research reported.

Commander of the US Third Air Force based in Germany Lt.-Gen Frank Gorenc said it is not just an "exercise," but a "deployment," The Jerusalem Post said.

Washington and Tel Aviv have planned to hold what they call the largest-ever joint military exercise this spring.

The accuracy of the article isn't important, that PressTV is running it is IMHO.

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Do NOT underestimate fanatics.

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Dialog is NOT being pursued.

Fanatics? Iran could be making a hell out of Iraq, Afghanistan, Isreal in terms of asymmetric warfare/insugency. Instead, they've kept things at a steady simmer. Fanatics WANT things to escalate to some apocalyptic pitch. They appear to have been pursuing a measured policy. Hostile, clearly. Fanatic? No, they aren't flailing around like that.

No dialogue? ALL of their recent moves have been communication. This IS the dialogue. They didn't freak out and kamikaze attack the 5th fleet, they ran fleet exercises.

As far as dialogue goes, they assisted us in Afghanistan after 911 and put EVERYTHING on the table for negotiation with us including the nuke program... we responded by announcing they were part of the "axis of evil".

They're clearly on the other side of the chess board from us, but the one thing I see is patience, not fanaticism. Mind you patience can be more dangerous.

Oh they are fanatic alright. Rdytmire, I think your observations are spot on. They aren't flailing. They are patient fanatics. They will wait until they are sure they can really do some damage, then they will proceed. When Iamanutjob insists he will wipe Israel off the map, he means it. When they have the means to do it, they will act. Maybe they are just pushing the envelope right now, just to see how far they can go.

"Dialogue" from them has been insane rants on par with Hitler.

I've been reading "The Tehran Initiative". I feel like I'm watching a novel play out in real time. Scary.

I dunno guys and dolls.... I have an old friend of mine who is from Iran. Literally.....

All is not as it seems in either direction.

Is anything ever as it seems?

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It's possible that invading Iranian soldiers would even be welcomed in many countries (Qatar, Saudi Arabia, etc.)

Not in a million years.

Americans, and actually the whole western world, are soooo literally "prepared" for war with Iran...

Naturally the "fanatics" are on the other side...obivously...

Quote:

"...Well, for one, we are hard-wired not to kill our fellow human beings. At least not those who are posing no threat to us whatsoever.

However, introduce some mechanics in between us and murder, and all of a sudden our frame of mind changes. People who would never be able to kill with their bare hands are willing to drop bombs on civilians and pull levers leading to the death of a bystander..."

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/12/....

Why it could easily kick off

no one is going to nuke a carrier. the Iranian bill is toilet paper. they aren't doing anything. they can barely keep their lights on at home. if they close the strait they slit their own throat and they know it. they need the strait for their tankers to go to china and india as well. they need the money so they will keep whoring out the strait don't worry about that. all they wnat to do is to make a nuke. full stop. they will press on for that. in the meantime they crow like a cock because what else can they do. they don't have a nuke (yet). once they get even closer, mossad will know. then once the israelis pull the trigger and make their first air raid, doing some light damage and losing some aircraft, then the iranian proxy Hezbollah will start dropping missiles on israel. iranian agents around the world (france, europe, US) will blow up some people and freak everyone out. israel will think they are living in the book of job there will be so many missiles. Hamas will join the dogpile. every ****ing fanatic from the middle east will start heading for israel and to make jihad. lebanon and israel will go to war again. beirut will turn into a ****hole (again). but soon israel will be on the ropes very quickly. then israel will pick up the phone, call obama and bibi will say, 'unless the US bails us out, we are using tactical nukes. so, bail us out' obama will hang up the phone and put their war plan into action. then the US will start leveling iran with airstrikes. we will clean iranian clock in a matter of weeks with an airstrike. the world will go ****ing wild for about 2 months and then lady gaga will release a new record and everyone will forget.

after the iranian regime is buried in their bunkers a new regime will be installed. maybe someone learned a lesson from iraq and this show will have a better ending.

the question is timing.

the other option is to let Iran have a nuke. then will pretty much take over the middle east starting with bahrain and then qatar and ending with KSA. if iran gets the nuke, the persian empire will rule the middle east again except this time with some fundamentalist running it and they will make north korea look like pikers when it comes to screwing with America and Europe.

christ i miss eisenhower.

+1 DF, although word that the Persians had successfully tested a nuke would not surprise me if it appeared on tonight's news. Even if the only delivery systems they have are planes, boats and trucks, they will become much safer and bolder.

The truth related to the recent downing of our RQ-170 drone is also a significant wildcard, especially wrt Russia's role and objectives.

The Persians want to appear to their neighbors both as the only ones powerful enough to oppose the US within the Gulf region, and crazy enough to actually do something about it. But imho they don't want or need actual conflict. And they are NOT crazy.

Once Iraq is their new Syria, (I give it a year), they will have Kuwait, Bahrain and the KSA in a real pickle. They all know that the West will not be going back to war there to protect them. If they can make Kuwait and Bahrain throw out US bases, that is pretty much the ball game.

Sure wish we had spent all that money on alternate energy research. But blowing **** up is so much cooler!

Iran has reason to be confident if they know an attack on Iran means Turkey will switch sides, Russia cuts off energy to Europe, and China halts exports of military components, invades Taiwan, etc.

Good chance Iran already has if not a working bomb, significant Russian and Paki nuclear tech that is being copied.

Iran is a large country with hostile terrain. No ability to roll tanks straight to the capital like in Iraq. A land invasion would have high US casualties and would be far more difficult to subdue than Iraq or Afgh. US air superiority can take out Iran's air force, "navy" and missile launchers, but the costs would be high even if few planes are lost. The kill rate against Iranian targets would likely be much lower than Iraq and Afgh, and we would expend huge amounts of expensive ordinance, weakening our ability to respond to threats in other theaters. No doubt Iran's allies China, Russia, and possibly Turkey would be content to see US wear itself down attacking Iran, before undertaking military operations against targets they desire such as Taiwan.

Best option is to let them have their nuke. They still can't invade other countries without their attacking forces being decimated by US air power. Park boomers off the Iranian coast and announce any ballistic missiles leaving Iranian airspace will result in immediate massive nuclear retaliation.

I think that may be the only real answer.

Make very public and clear announcements that should any ballistic device leave Iranian airspace it will be assumed to be a nuclear-tipped missile and the result will be the nation will be reduced to glass.

It's about the only thing we can do that doesn't require either immediate (and illegal, plus expensive either in money, lives or both) belligerent action or something that is arguably an act of war (e.g. a blockade.)

They are most likely a year or two from a missile-mounted device, (unless somebody gives it to them). That approach sounds a lot like a No-Fly zone, which would have to be some sort of multinational/UN action. (Or a unilateral Israeli thing, which is probably already their position.)

The Russians and/or Chinese would never allow it through the Security Council. Or worse, would back Iran outright.

Too bad the Persians don't have to worry about Saddam anymore.

Pooches were screwed.

Best assessment I've heard, Tallystick.

THE WAR ON IRAN: The Deployment of Thousands of US Troops to Israel, The Integration of US-Israeli Command Structures

by Michel Chossudovsky

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?c....

The Islamic Republic of Iran has been threatened with military action by the US and its allies for the last eight years.

Iran has been involved in war games in the Persian Gulf. The US Navy is deployed. Iran's naval exercises which commenced on December 24th were conducted in an area which is patrolled by the US Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain.

Meanwhile, a new round of economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran has been unleashed, largely targeting Iran's Central Bank, leading to a dramatic plunge of Iran's currency.

Reacting to US threats, Iran declared that it would consider blocking the shipment of oil through the Strait of Hormuz:

"Roughly 40 percent of the world's oil tanker shipments transit the strait daily, carrying 15.5 million barrels of Saudi, Iraqi, Iranian, Kuwaiti, Bahraini, Qatari and United Arab Emirates crude oil, leading the United States Energy Information Administration to label the Strait of Hormuz "the world's most important oil chokepoint." (John C.K. Daly, War Imminent in Strait of Hormuz? $200 a Barrel Oil? Global Research, January 3, 2012)

The Globalization of War and the Demise of the American Republic

There is a symbiotic relationship between War and the Economic Crisis.

The planning of the Iran war is being carried out at the crossroads of a worldwide economic depression, which is conducive to widening social inequalities, mass unemployment and the impoverishment of large sectors of the world population.

Crushing social movements on the domestic front --including all forms of resistance to America's military agenda and its neoliberal economic policies-- is an integral part of the United States' hegemonic role Worldwide.

Does Constitutional Government in the eyes of the Obama Administration constitute an encroachment to "The Globalization of War"?

History tells us that an Empire cannot be built on the political foundations of a Republic.

In this regard, it should come as no surprise that the new Iran sanctions regime adopted by the US Congress became law on New Year's Eve, December 31st, on the same day Obama signed into law the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA 2012), which suspends civil liberties and allows for the "Indefinite Detention of Americans". (See Michel Chossudovsky, The Inauguration of Police State USA 2012. Obama Signs the “National Defense Authorization Act ", Global Research, January 1, 2012)

The Obama administration is intent upon crushing both social dissent as well as antiwar protest. The American Republic is incompatible with America's "long war". What is required is the instatement of a "democratic dictatorship", a de facto military rule in civilian cloths.

Thousands of Troops to Israel

Advanced war preparations are ongoing. Barely mentioned by the Western media, although confirmed by Israeli press reports, the Pentagon is preparing to send several thousand US troops to Israel.

In the context of ongoing war preparations, these troops are slated to participate in joint US-Israeli military maneuvers in Spring 2012, described by the Jerusalem Post as "the largest-ever missile defense exercise in [Israel's] history." (emphasis added)

Last week [11-18 December], Lt.-Gen. Frank Gorenc, commander of the US’s Third Air Force based in Germany, visited Israel to finalize plans for the upcoming drill, expected to see the deployment of several thousand American soldiers in Israel. (US commander visits Israel to finalize missile... Jerusalem Post December 21, 2011 emphasis added)

These war games involve the testing of Israel's air defense system, which is now fully integrated into the US global missile detection system, following the installation (December 2008) of a new sophisticated X-band early warning radar system. (See www.defense.gov/news/, December 30, 2011, .See also Sen. Joseph Azzolina, Protecting Israel from Iran's missiles, Bayshore News, December 26, 2008).

The US global missile detection system includes satellites, Aegis ships in the Mediterranean, Persian Gulf and Red Sea as well as land-based Patriot radars and interceptors. In the context of planning the US-Israel Spring war games:

"The US will also bring its THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) and shipbased Aegis ballistic missile defense systems to Israel to simulate the interception of missile salvos against Israel.

The American systems will work in conjunction with Israel’s missile defense systems – the Arrow, Patriot and Iron Dome.

Gorenc came to Israel for talks with Brig.-Gen. Doron Gavish, commander of the Air Force’s Air Defense Division.

He toured one of the Iron Dome batteries in the South and the Israel Test Bed lab in Holon where the IAF holds its interception simulation exercises.

The IAF is planning to deploy a fourth battery of the Iron Dome counter-rocket system in the coming months and is mulling the possibility of stationing it in Haifa to protect oil refineries located there.

The Defense Ministry has allocated a budget to manufacture an additional three Iron Dome batteries by the end of 2012. IAF operational requirements call for the deployment of about a dozen batteries along Israel’s northern and southern borders.

The IAF is also moving forward with plans to deploy Rafael’s David’s Sling missile defense system, which is designed to defend against medium-range rockets and cruise missiles. Rafael recently completed a series of successful navigation and flight tests of the David’s Sling’s interceptor and plans to hold the first interception test by mid-2012. US commander visits Israel to finalize missile... Jerusalem Post December 21, 2011)

Integrated US-NATO-Israel Command Structures

Pursuant to these joint US-Israel games, there are indications that the US is also planning to increase the number of American troops stationed in Israel.

Moreover, these military exercises planned for next Spring are accompanied by a fundamental shift in US-NATO-Israel command structures.

What is now unfolding at Washington's behest is an integration of US-Israel military command structures.

Washington is not a reluctant partner, as some observers have suggested, "with the Obama administration attempting to distance itself" from an Israeli sponsored war on Iran. Quite the opposite!

Given the integration of Israel's air defense system into that of the US, Israel cannot, under any circumstances, wage a war on Iran without the US. Moreover, since mid-2005, following the signing of a protacol between NATO and Tel Aviv, Israel has beocme a de facto member of the Atlantic Alliance.

The Pentagon calls the shots. The planned deployment of US troops in Israel is part and parcel of a US sponsored war.

In the context of the Spring 2012 military drills, the United States military will establish Command Posts in Israel. In turn, Israel's IDF will establish Command Posts at United States European Command headquarters (EUCOM), in Stuttgart, Germany. (Ibid).

The ultimate objective of these command posts is to establish "joint [US-Israeli] task forces in the event of a large-scale conflict in the Middle East", (Ibid). In other words, these task forces will be involved in planning the deployment of troops and weapons systems directed against Iran, with Israel playing an important role as a launchpad for military action.

What these developments suggest is that the war on Iran --which has been on the drawing board of the Pentagon since 2003-- will involve the direct participation of Israel under a unified US military command.

The people of Israel are the unspoken victims of America's global military agenda as well their own government's war plans directed against Iran.

They are led to believe that Iran possesses nuclear weapons when in fact Israel possesses an advanced nuclear arsenal, which is directed against Iran.

The people of Israel as well as Western public opinion, more generally, are also led to believe that Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wants "to Wipe Israel off the Map", when in fact this statement was concocted by the Western media, as a means of demonizing the Iranian head of state as well as presenting Iran as a threat to the security of Israel:

"Across the world, a dangerous rumor has spread that could have catastrophic implications. According to legend, Iran's President has threatened to destroy Israel, or, to quote the misquote, "Israel must be wiped off the map". Contrary to popular belief, this statement was never made"

(See Arash Norouzi, Israel: "Wiped off The Map". The Rumor of the Century, Fabricated by the US Media to Justify An All out War on Iran, Global Research, January 20, 2007)

Who wants to "wipe Israel off the Map"? Tehran or Washington? Ahmadinejad or Obama?

In actual fact, the Obama administration as well as the Netanyahu government indelibly constitute a threat to the people of Israel.

Tehran has since 2005 warned that it will retaliate if attacked, in the form of ballistic missile strikes directed against Israel as well as against US military facilities in the Persian Gulf, which would immediately lead us into a scenario of military escalation.

This war would engulf a region extending from the Mediterranean to the heartland of Central Asia. It would have devastating consequences, resulting in a massive loss of life.

It would precipitate humanity into a World War III scenario.