May as well start the thread on a big news day. Low and behold they found stocks in corn and beans. Expectations are for sharply lower, possibly LLD in beans and corn. Disc, gonna get my you know what handed to me on the open- long since a little before Christmas.

It's not like the FDA to be so far off stocks. Obama's admin on purpose??
Tin foil maybe. Meat numbers have been off all the time, but grains not so much.

Let's see what the next growing season has in mind for us.

Unexpected natural corn and beans or did some Monsanto lab suddenly unleash them?

Well, they gave me a good chance to get out, so we'll see.

Drench, they have been losoing and finding crap for two years now. Bank traders need to get out, apparently./sarc

LLD on Corn now and they are really piled up on the sell side..... 150k to sell!
Mortimer!

Corn and Wheat(July) LLD, beans trading.

Biggest news so far, of course, are the new grain trading hours. In competition with ICE we now trade pretty much around the clock. The most interesting thing to me is now they are open during the actual FDA releases. The worry is volatility.

Quote:

For the first time, CME grain markets will be open when price-sensitive reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture reports are issued, which some analysts said could favor high frequency traders able to crunch the data more quickly.

It will be like Unemployment Friday every time.


http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/b....

Thanks for starting this, Livermore.

Wonder what happened to Goodlander? He always had some interesting data to contribute.

All I have is the drought index from noaa.gov

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/res....

Sorry, I'm no good at posting the chart. That's Bez's area. Wonder what happened to him?

Anyways, I can tell you my area shows as midrange. WTF? We haven't had any moisture to speak of all winter and it's getting worse. Big cracks in the ground and we have to sell our calf and heifer, since no grass is growing. We have a steer about ready to butcher. Won't be buying anymore cattle after that.

Loves2, I don't know what to think except the grains all seem to be a dollar related trade. Dollar up softs down. The dollar here has a lot of upside possible but corn is down to where it is a tough short. Wheat, overall, seems the strongest price-wise. Beans look to me like they could see an 11 handle, but what do I know.

disc.- short a bean contract.

I don't have a dog in this hunt but maybe this will help?

USDA agency reports:

http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/usda/usda....

Agricultural prices:

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda....

Crop progress:

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda....

USDA weather and cliamte:

http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/ind....

The National Agricultural Statistics Service(Charts and maps to the left):

http://www.nass.usda.gov/

All I know is the some of the grain markets have taken on an "HFT" like personality. If you look at Corn and Wheat, the charts look like they are on meth. Huge moves either direction on any given day... they used to trend much better (pre 10')and have much more "stable" ranges. Either they are infected with HFT or we are working out much bigger chart pattern corrections(monthly,etc).

Corn is down $2 YOY. The $8,000 per acre Iowa cornland prices will not hold up.

April and May auction results in Iowa ranged from $4300/acre to $11,300/acre depending upon the CSR. Several auctions coming up this month. The weather always plays major role. Guess we'll wait to see if it rains.

This isn't good: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pr....

I'm not big into charts, but CZ12 is looking a lot more like CZ10 back in June-July 2010. Ag resource said this morning 154-156 BPA and potentially <150 if no rain shows up. 14 day forecast is dry. Not the best start to pollination.

No position.

Corn limit up on weather forecasts...

Short version (it is late).

Eastern Europe is having issues, beyond the usual issues that go on there. Russia and Ukraine crops downgraded again, Russia more than the Ukraine. I don't remember the numbers but they were significant. Western Europe was upgraded, was not a great start to the season in a lot of areas. North America seems to be a mixed bag. Lots of diferences in crops in short distances. Some concerns with tasseling during the heat in some areas. Not enough Canola went in this year, trading at $14/bu right now. China supposedly having a good year for it's corn as is India. Next question for India is where are you going to put it? all the storage is full of other grains. Maybe they will take a page out of Romania's book and shovel it into the ganges once it has become completely rotted?

Wheat stockpiles expected to be the lowest in four years, this is without taking the 14+% off for the rotted grain in Inda alone.

Thx, Goodlander. Long version in a couple weeks or whenever you have time? We should all have a good idea of what is to come by fall.

Quote:

Next question for India is where are you going to put it?

There's some dry ground over there and we've got some tarps....

Price of Corn
Corn price per bushel



708.50 cents per bushel

Daily change of +34.00 ( +5.04% )

Corn Quote Updated Jul-05-12 4:53 PM

Some nasty weather in Western Canada over the past few days. Canola now trading just short of $15.50/bu. Completely uncharted territory.


https://www.theice.com/productguide/Prod....

Drove cross country from SE SD to Charlotte, NC and back last week. I thought we looked "tough' here but got progressively worse as we drove east. Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio look just, plain fugly. Corn? I saw field after field of what appeared to be pineapple plants (kidding). It was firing, curled, and losing color.

Rick Santelli said before I left for work this a.m. that 33% of Indiana's (5th largest producer by state) corn is beyond hope. He didn't cite his source.

A friend's brother who raises and trains horses in eastern Wyoming called him asking for hay sources as there is NO hay for sale from Pierre, SD west. Every single acre plus every road ditch that can be hayed is being hayed.

A reliable source said that 1st cutting alfalfa in large square bales is selling for up to $365/ton in NW Iowa.

Locally, farmers and ranchers are culling deep and a lot of cows are going to the sale barn. I understand this is pretty wide spread. With already high beef prices these cows will go, for the most part, to kill further reducing the breeding herd. This should insure high beef prices for years to come.

Beef, pork, poultry, and dairy all need corn. Look for skyrocketing protein prices.

How do you think commodity and food inflation due to drought alone might affect The Benank's QE3 trigger-finger?

QE3 would only drive them higher.

With an average of <10% of household income spent on food I don't think it will be a stumbling block. Also a double edged sword. The USA is the largest exporter of grains in the world. Higher prices = more income from foreign sources, improving, or at least holding the balance of trade. In this situation the .gov would likely just offset the prices with increased EBT (food stamps or whatever they are called). I don't expect the US government to do anything really foolish like export curbs or other knee jerk reactions, there are enough smart people that would understand the consequences for this to get quashed before it was any more than a thought. I do not have the same optimism for many other countries though. Curbs could easily come back on in many other nations before this is all over.

Quote:

I don't expect the US government to do anything really foolish like export curbs or other knee jerk reactions

I think you have more faith in the US Gov than we do, but I hope you're right.

Interesting report - http://.............../node/23310
Mexico is also in a world of hurt, apparently.

Wheat, also - http://.............../node/23296

Those links are toast, Tesla.