Anyone know how reliable/reputable this guy is?

DOCUMENTS RAISE AWKWARD QUESTIONS FOR WASHINGTON, IMF & BERLIN
A written document giving firm dates and detailed actions for a planned Greek default has been in the possession of two top Wall Street bank currency trading bosses since the second week in January. The Slog has separate but corroborative sources affirming the existence of the document, and a conviction among senior bank staff that – at least at the time – the plan represented “a timetable, not a contingency”. The plan gives a firm date of March 23rd for default to be announced after the close of business.

Senior bankers on Wall Street have been given detailed documentation setting out a timetable to Greek default, including firm dates and technical ‘orders’ about last use of the euro as a currency there. The revelation arrived at Slogger’s Roost last Monday, since when I have been trying to obtain corroboration. This arrived in the early hours of today (Thursday). One of the banks is Barclays Capital (Barcap) run by controversial figure Bob Diamond. The other must remain anonymous for the time being, in order to protect sources.

The document asserts that Greece will officially be declared in default by all the ratings agencies after the close of business on Friday march 23rd . At the weekend all Greek bank accounts will be frozen, with emergency measures detailed to prevent the flight of capital. Included in the paperwork is a list of very limited exceptions to the ‘no withdrawals’ order. All major banks ‘are instructed not to deal with euro exchange as of open of business in Greece on Monday 25th march. All Greek markets will close for one day ‘at least’.

As yet, I have been unable to establish the source of the documents. But one of my informants admitted, “I have strongly suggested to Greek business friends and clients that they sell up fast, do a sale and leaseback on property, empty bank accounts, and change to a hard currency.”

http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/

I did a little digging. He seems legit.

How can it be March 23rd ? The bond rollover date is March 20th.

Simple. March 23 is Friday. All important **** must happen when the weekend starts so the sticksave can happen by the Monday open.

zara wrote..

Anyone know how reliable/reputable this guy is?

I only started following him a month or two ago.

My undocumented guess is that he is for real.

I have him set as one of my browsers opening pages.

He seems to be one of the very best unvarnished Euro zone sources.

I wouldn't bet the farm on that specific date, though. That was a projection made earlier - lots of things can change to move the date

This news seems to have put a bid under a number of financials:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-16....

Partial quote:

Quote:

European governments are considering cutting interest rates on emergency loans to Greece and using contributions from the European Central Bank to plug a new financing gap in the second bailout program for Athens, two people familiar with the discussions said.

And check out the sense of humor on those central bankers!

Quote:

. . . central bankers have indicated that the ECB could funnel future profits from its Greek bond holdings to national governments and on into the crisis program.

Greek far-right LAOS party will not commit to austerity package by parliament, according to senior LAOS lawmaker

From Graham Summers at Phoenix Capital Research:

February 16, 2012

Greece is Not Lehman 2.0... As I'll Show You, It's Far Far Worse...

Investors simply do not understand the significance of Greece. Comparisons are being made to Lehman, but these comparisons are moot for the following reason: Greece is a country not a private institution.

This is not a subtle difference. True, Lehman's derivatives were spread throughout the global financial system just as Greek sovereign debt is. However, investors are missing the true scope of the fall-out a Greek default would create.

First, let's think about Lehman. When Lehman went under, half of the other institutions that were in trouble had already been merged with larger entities (Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch) or had been nationalized (Fannie and Freddie). Those that were still standing after Lehman went under, changed to bank holding companies (Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs) in order to receive special access to Fed lending or were nationalized (AIG).

None of these options exist regarding the sovereign crisis in Europe today. If Greece defaults, Portugal can't merge with Spain. And Italy can't be nationalized by Germany or suddenly change itself to a new type of country that gets special treatment from the ECB (it's already getting special treatment from the ECB by the way).

This cuts to the core issues for sovereign defaults in the EU. Here are the facts regarding those EU countries on the verge of collapse:

1) You cannot solve a debt problem with more debt

2) Austerity measures slow economic growth which in turn makes it harder to meet debt payments

This is simple basic common sense. But these are the policies being promoted by EU leaders: we'll give you more money if you implement more austerity measures to get your finances in order.

The fact of the matter is that there is simply no way on earth that Greece can get its finances in order (short of a massive default). Greece has terrible age demographics, a lack of economic growth, and cultural issues (e.g. paying taxes is for suckers) that make it impossible for the country to solve its financial problems.

In plain terms, Greece racked up too big of a tab and simply doesn't have the means of paying it. End of story. The world needs to realize this. Because Greece will default and it will default in a big way,

The impact of this will be tremendous. For one thing, pretty much everyone is lying about their exposure to Greece. Consider Germany for instance. According to the Bank of International Settlements German bank exposure to Greece is only $3.9 billion (though they state this is only on an immediate borrower basis).

This is a bit odd as according to The Guardian German banks have nearly 8 billion Euros' worth of exposure to Greek debt. And they only include 11 German banks in their analysis. However, of those 11 banks, THREE of them have Greek exposure equal to more than 10% of their total outstanding equity.

But even these numbers are far below the mark. By my own analysis, which I recently shared with subscribers of Private Wealth Advisory one of the "strongest" banks in Germany alone, by its own admission, has twice the exposure to Greece that the Guardian claims. And this is one of the strongest banks in Germany.

So, when Greece defaults, the fall-out will be much, much larger than people expect simply by virtue of the fact that everyone is lying about their exposure to Greece.

Secondly, when Greece defaults, the other PIIGS (Italy, Ireland, Spain, and Portugal) will have to ask themselves... "do we opt for austerity measures and more debt which obviously didn't work for Greece and will only stifle our economies more? Or do we also default?"

That's a very tough question to answer. But I'd wager more than one of them will opt for default. And if you think European bank exposure to Greece is understated, you don't even want to know how bad exposure to Italy and Spain is (to give you an idea, the German bank I referred to earlier, again by its own admission, has total PIIGS exposure equal to 60% of its equity).

Folks, the European banking system is literally on the edge of the abyss. This won't be Lehman 2.0. This is going to be something far, far worse. Some of these countries are already sporting unemployment of 20%. What happens when their largest banks go under?

Also, remember that the EU is:

1) The single largest economy in the world ($16.28 trillion)

2) China's largest trade partner

3) Accounts for 21% of US exports

4) Accounts for $121 billion worth of exports for South America

The global impact of an EU banking Crisis will be tremendous. And it's clear the EU is already heading into a recession without a banking crisis hitting. What do you think will be the impact when Europe as a whole experiences its own "2008" only on a sovereign level?

The answer is: we are literally on the eve of a Crisis that will make 2008 look like a picnic.

On that note, if you have not already taken steps to prepare for the next round of the Crisis now is the time to do so while the system is still holding together.

I understand NOT wanting to be Europe's bitch nor beholden to the banking clan, but do the people of Greece understand what will happen if they DON'T get the funny money? The austerity they're being told to undertake is bad, but there could be an all-out collapse of pensions, pay checks and govt cheese across the board if Europe doesn't give them more cash.

I really just wonder if they realize how ****ed they are, in either event?

Agree Frat, austerity is coming to Greece in one form or another.

Update...

Just to update folks, my first source for today’s earlier posting is now happy for me to name another US bank working to the March 23rd Greek default schedule as JP Morgan. This is based on the reality that dozens of people have now come forward to confirm Morgan the Pirate as one of the recipients.

I have not as yet received any confirmation that eurobanks are in this loop. I must therefore conclude that the ‘default schema’ is US Fed-led, with Mr Timothy Geithner perhaps in a leading role

During the day, emails have dribbled in here supporting the story from a professional standpoint. (For those who don’t already know it, the email address for Slog editorial contact is jawslog@gmail.com). One such is particularly interesting, I think:

‘Congratulations on getting this out there. You need to look more closely at Deutsche [Bank] and Commerzbank. Key people in Bankfurt are fully aware of this.’

This in turn would suggest joint Washington-Berlin cooperation. At the moment, I’m unable to reach The Slog’s Bankfurt Maulwurf for confirmation or denial of that.

The likelihood, of course, is that these revelations will act as a self-denying prophecy. That is to say, if the story continues to hold up, the Troika-Berlin axis will now have to look for another schedule – purely for the purposes of denial.

Meanwhile, Wolfgang ‘Strangelove’ Schauble (top right) continues to supply the World with hard evidence that he has gone more than slightly off his trolley. The German finance minister is now pressing for Greece’s April elections to be put off for a year – and the replacement of elected politicians with more Montis and Papademoses. I can do no better than commend to you Ambrose Evans-Pritchard’s piece in the Daily Telegraph this afternoon…with this extract in particular:

‘His [Schauble's] apparent demand that Greece postpone elections scheduled for April, and impose a technocrat junta (a l’Italiana) for another year without PASOK and New Democracy, takes your breath away. Is this really the position of the German government? Greek democracy be damned?’
http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/

Intriguing stuff, not sure what to make of it. With (yet another) deal supposedly to be done this weekend, I wonder what it could be that allows for a March 23rd default - or is the default date being moved up? Or does the EU think that it can keep promising a "solution" until March 23rd? Or perhaps this guy has it all wrong? Or perhaps the document is sooooo yesterday, replaced by one he doesn't know about?

Quote:

His [Schauble's] apparent demand that Greece postpone elections scheduled for April...for another year...

Imagine how we would feel if another country tried to postpone our elections for a full year, while trying to squeeze us dry?

This is going to get very interesting.

Um, we already have postponed elections - every time I go I see the same ****heads on the ballot.

So if this happens what would have happened to MF Glob bets and anyone else holding similar svrgn bets?

Zara, or whoever first linked to the Slog blog.

thanks, it's a great read. Some hilarious ****. Some of the eurozoners are way out there. If any of them read the stuff here they might think we're pretty much nuts too.

I feel that slog blog will add a lot of color to the EU situation we'd never get.

Harrisonact--my pleasure! I only stumbled across it a few weeks ago myself. That's the reason I wanted feedback concerning the reliability of the info...

Greek culture minister Yeroulanos resigns

Interesting story behind that...

Quote:

Greek authorities say armed robbers have seized dozens of items on display at the museum in Ancient Olympia, the birthplace of the Olympics in southern Greece, after tying up an employee.

Greece’s Culture Minister Pavlos Geroulanos submitted his resignation after the robbery took place Friday morning.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/worl....

Yeroulanos, Geroulanos... same d00d

LOL. This could've been written by yours truly....it's only missing the rally monkey!

Submitted by Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

Do They Or Don't They? Will They Or Won't They?

It’s hard to believe that here we are again trying to figure out what Europe will do over the weekend. In our case a long weekend.

In spite of the fact that the Greek story has been out there for almost 2 years now, it still drives the market. Virtually all of the big moves this week came on the back of Greek headlines so it is impossible to argue that it is “priced in”. My best guess is that a resolution (which the market believes is most likely) sparks a 2%-4% rally. A default (which I think is most likely) sparks a 5%-10% decline. So at these levels I will be short as I think the most likely move is lower, and the move lower is likely to be bigger. With the market being choppy, being nimble remains a key.

Yesterday was one of the bigger swings we’ve had. The S&P moved almost 2% and is starting to feel like it did last fall – either extremely well bid with no sellers, or feeling ugly with no buyers and almost no middle ground. Be careful about high yield. Everyone is still talking about the “flows” but although JNK has been able to attract some new money, HYG has not added a single share this week. HY may be cheap, but if the new flows dry up, it will struggle from here.

The CPI data is also important. The fed has set a 2% “target” and talks and acts like we are running below that rate, when in reality, inflation is above their target. An upside surprise here would be bad for the markets as it would be yet another argument against QE. The economic data has been good (though I believe influenced by unseasonably good weather), but the market is impacted by the hopes of QE, so asides from Greece, that is the other big story to watch.

The market has a tendency to do well after the credit guys leave on holiday shortened trading days. So with the desire to believe that Europe will not let Greece default (in spite of evidence to the contrary) the markets may remain in rally mode for the day because no one wants to miss the imminent resolution of the crisis. I am far more convinced that we will get some very disappointing headlines because the situation really doesn’t work, and the tone of Europe has switched from “No Default” to “No Disorderly Default”.

I think Greece and Iran are providing the perfect magicians sleight of hand diversions.

They can use Greece or Iran to divert our attention to what they want us to watch at the moment. Pretty clever. Greece blows, start something in the ME to divert all eyes.

If the ME blows drop Greece like a diseased ***** because she doesn't matter anymore, not even a zillionith of a ****.

The latest...

Via Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors,



Bailout somehow seems too nice of a word. It implies working together, giving a helping hand, making a real effort to help someone out. As I read the headlines coming out of Greece for the past 2 weeks, all I can think of is, how do you say “squeal like a pig” in German.



The market is happy because it looks like PSI will go through and that in theory will be enough to convince the Troika to send money to Greece, so long as they live by the latest austerity package. That all seems fine, I guess, but looking beneath the headlines, it seems far worse than that.



The ECB is getting special treatment on their bond holdings. They will not participate in PSI, in fact it looks like they are just going to change the bonds they own to identical bonds that aren’t subject to retroactive collective action clauses. This may help the current situation, where bonds are already trading at 20% of par, but the implications for the market as a whole aren’t so good. All none ECB holders are subordinated. Period, end of story. Right now as the markets are in a period of calm, that can be ignored, but it will come up again. Possibly the moment the ink is dry and Portugal and Ireland want new deals.



Then there is the retroactive collective action clause. On the bright side, triggering that will actually allow a Credit Event to be declared. On a scarier note, is the fact that not only are the rules changing, but investors are being told they have been changed as though they were always in place. That is about as Orwellian as you get. The message should be clear – once the entire economic system functions on printed money and government programs, they will treat the system like they own it – since they do. So far investors are buying into the idea that this is a unique situation and a one-time thing. But this seems like an incredibly slippery slope – a government, with the blessing of the ECB, is changing bond laws after the fact and forcing investors to deal with that new law as though it had always been in place. Once this tactic has been used, it will be tempting to use again when it suits them – and them being any government, not just the Greek government.



And the Greek government has been a complete failure. They are represented in these negotiations who owes his job to the people he is negotiating with. His job was not to represent the Greek people, but to force a deal down their throats. No work was done on alternatives to the bailout (until recently). He didn’t explore what options Greece had other than the bailout. All he did was create fear that without a bailout Greece would fall into total chaos and used that to get his job done – passing austerity measures imposed on the people by the Troika. The situation in Greece seems awful. The economy is collapsing. The human toll is growing, yet the puppet didn’t spend time looking for alternatives, looking for paths that might be good for Greece, but instead tried to promote irrational fear and get his job done.

Any attempt by Greeks to explore alternatives has been shut down. Remember when the last Greek leader had the silly idea of a referendum? Samaras mentioned that the April elections could change things, which led to some demands that the elections be changed, but ended (so far) with him just groveling for forgiveness. And that is a trend that is growing. This is no longer any attempt by one nation to help another, this is now about creating a pecking order. Too many things have been said that cannot be unsaid that hurt the dignity of the Greeks. If they had a leadership that had worked on alternatives to the bailout, maybe the PSI talks would already be over. Instead, there is a real risk they accept a deal and allow their dignity and sovereignty to be stripped away, all for a deal that probably isn’t in their best interests. The deal is in the best interest of the Troika – not Greece.



The worst part is that all these talks go on while in the background everyone is acknowledging that this deal won’t even work anymore. That level of denial is scary.



The one element not being addressed by this Greek default, is what happens to all the bonds they guaranteed? Are those guarantees still “good” in the eyes of the ECB? That is the only way Greek banks are funding. But yes, in this world, if the ECB decides they are valid guarantees, they can fund the banks based on those guarantees, in spite of the fact that they are worthless.