Two huge convective complexes dancing around each other... with some hot towers firing off in the eastern complex. If this thing ever consolidates, it has the potential to be quite large.

Latest cone... RNC still gets the dirty side.

Karl, I'd ask if you're prepped but I know better .

Even if it's just a minimal hurricane, if it comes anywhere near Tampa next week, the media talking heads will squeal like stuck pigs.

Mo, Cantore will be there freshly roided out and Geraldo will be parachuting in from a WC-130 from the 53d Weather Recon Squadron.

Recon is in right now and finding multiple centers of circulation. This system is still clearly in early developmental stages, and don't be surprised if the cone doesn't shift significantly west.

Recon has a Twitter feed - https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA

Drench, LMAO.

Pressure measured at 1003. Dropping, despite the messy look on satellite. IR can be so deceiving... will have to wait patiently for visible.

Often, street protesters, of whom there should be plenty for the RNC as there have been for all the presidential nomination conventions, make up catchy protest phrases on the fly.

For the Tampa Convention I can hear it now...

CALL IT OFF AND DON'T COME BACK!!

CALL IT OFF AND DON'T COME BACK!!

CALL IT OFF AND DOOOON'TTTT COME BACK!!

(repeat forever...)

Quote:

Mayor: ‘Absolutely Prepared To Call Off’ GOP Convention If Isaac Threatens Tampa http://tampa.cbslocal.com/2012/08/22/may....

Latest cone. Further shift west.

I'm still going with my hunch that the Euro has sniffed this one out, which would be its first win for the season.

The subtropical ridge is stronger than expected, and despite the northeast trough digging in and acting as a weakening mechanism, the turn to the north is not going to be quite as sharp as first thought. That's just my hunch.

NOAA Gulfstream jet will be taking measurements in the ridge tomorrow, and multiple NWS sites along the ridge axis will be launching balloons tomorrow. We'll have a much better picture once this data gets fed into the models.

Seems to be consolidating:

Moving West...

Nothing has changed in my thinking overnight given the evolution of the upper-air pattern. The leftward shift is still within the error margin on my original look at this.

I still see the leftward margin for the potential strike zone at Appalachicola, but being that's the leftward margin the odds are only around 10-20% and it's much more likely that area gets the "clean" side of the storm. A rake offshore ~30 miles or so makes a hell of a mess all the way up the left coast but probably avoids most (but not all) of the surge issues, although it would **** up places like Steinhatchee REALLY badly.

Will take a look again later today; we should have better initialization data into the models today from the periphery and other NOAA missions. Pay attention to the ridging -- an expected weakness is what brings this storm north but what's showing up right now is the same stationary boundary that's been ****ing with us for the last few weeks here although it has shifted south and begun to lift NE a bit.

More as my thought process evolves on this one....

Hits Hispaniola - does 1/2 billion in improvements...

Eur 30 Aug

Hey Dakine, what's your link for that Euro graphic? I'd like to bookmark it.

00Z GFS - FLA panhandle in 6 days. Top off the tanks, Karl.

I'm ready, but I don't think it's coming here.

00Z Canadian - Miami on Monday.

Hope you're right.

Navy's KNOWCRAPS, just for fun - Keys and south FLA on Monday:

GFS has been crap for the last four or five years. It was "best we had" a number of years ago, but was never worth a **** beyond 72 hours.

I'm just hoping there's not another storm that lines up behind it to hit Florida again...we're taking our son to Disney World/Legoland for his 8th birthday the 3rd week of September!

Quote:

GFS has been crap for the last four or five years. It was "best we had" a number of years ago, but was never worth a **** beyond 72 hours.

Yep, but it's outperformed the Euro in the tropics quite consistently this season. Interesting that the Euro and GFS are starting to find some common ground in their landfall solution with this storm.

Nice looking system. Finally has a good central dense overcast going, which will aid in warming the core... and good upper level outflow.



Nice consolidated core convection... but somthing I just noticed is that it's definitely reformed to the south. The center of the storm is going to miss the next forecast position by at least 1 degree, which is going to make a significant difference down the road.