This could be real bad!..http://blog.al.com/live/2010/04/deepwate....

oh ****. I'm no bleeding heart tree hugger but those are some staggering numbers. Can't imagine the damage to teh ecosystem. damnit !

someting seems "fishy" about this to me...

From the Oil Drum:

A reader who is an engineer of considerable experience says watch this one evolve carefully because it is destined to continue to grow and he shares this long (but worthy explanation why:

"Heard your mention of the oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico this morning, and you (and most everyone else except maybe George Noory) are totally missing the boat on how big and bad of a disaster this is.

First fact, the original estimate was about 5,000 gallons of oil a day spilling into the ocean. Now they're saying 200,000 gallons a day. That's over a million gallons of crude oil a week!

I'm engineer with 25 years of experience. I've worked on some big projects with big machines. Maybe that's why this mess is so clear to me.

First, the BP platform was drilling for what they call deep oil. They go out where the ocean is about 5,000 feet deep and drill another 30,000 feet into the crust of the earth. This it right on the edge of what human technology can do. Well, this time they hit a pocket of oil at such high pressure that it burst all of their safety valves all the way up to the drilling rig and then caused the rig to explode and sink. Take a moment to grasp the import of that. The pressure behind this oil is so high that it destroyed the maximum effort of human science to contain it.

When the rig sank it flipped over and landed on top of the drill hole some 5,000 feet under the ocean.

Now they've got a hole in the ocean floor, 5,000 feet down with a wrecked oil drilling rig sitting on top of is spewing 200,000 barrels of oil a day into the ocean. Take a moment and consider that, will you!

First they have to get the oil rig off the hole to get at it in order to try to cap it. Do you know the level of effort it will take to move that wrecked oil rig, sitting under 5,000 feet of water? That operation alone would take years and hundreds of millions to accomplish. Then, how do you cap that hole in the muddy ocean floor? There just is no way. No way.

The only piece of human technology that might address this is a nuclear bomb. I'm not kidding. If they put a nuke down there in the right spot it might seal up the hole. Nothing short of that will work.

If we can't cap that hole that oil is going to destroy the oceans of the world. It only takes one quart of motor oil to make 250,000 gallons of ocean water toxic to wildlife. Are you starting to get the magnitude of this?

We're so used to our politicians creating false crises to forward their criminal agendas that we aren't recognizing that we're staring straight into possibly the greatest disaster mankind will ever see. Imagine what happens if that oil keeps flowing until it destroys all life in the oceans of this planet. Who knows how big of a reservoir of oil is down there.

Not to mention that the oceans are critical to maintaining the proper oxygen level in the atmosphere for human life.

We're humped. Unless God steps in and fixes this. No human can. You can be sure of that.
------------

Revelation 16:3 And the second angel poured out his vial upon the sea; and it became as the blood of a dead man: and every living soul died in the sea.

B.S. The oil rig is 1,300 feet away from the well. I'm an engineer as well, but that doesn't make me an expert on deep ocean drilling.

Total tinfoil crap. Oil Drum has become a tin haven and is >< from the blacklist around here.

From the al.com article:

Quote:

A confidential government report on the unfolding spill disaster in the Gulf makes clear the Coast Guard now fears the well could become an unchecked gusher shooting millions of gallons of oil per day into the Gulf.

"The following is not public," reads the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Emergency Response document dated April 28. "Two additional release points were found today in the tangled riser. If the riser pipe deteriorates further, the flow could become unchecked resulting in a release volume an order of magnitude higher than previously thought."

Asked Friday to comment on the document, NOAA spokesman Scott Smullen said that the additional leaks described were reported to the public late Wednesday night. Regarding the possibility of the spill becoming an order of magnitude larger, Smullen said, "I'm letting the document you have speak for itself."

In scientific circles, an order of magnitude means something is 10 times larger. In this case, an order of magnitude higher would mean the volume of oil coming from the well could be 10 times higher than the 5,000 barrels a day coming out now. That would mean 50,000 barrels a day, or 2.1 million gallons a day. It appears the new leaks mentioned in the Wednesday release are the leaks reported to the public late Wednesday night.

"There is no official change in the volume released but the USCG is no longer stating that the release rate is 1,000 barrels a day," continues the document, referred to as report No. 12. "Instead they are saying that they are preparing for a worst-case release and bringing all assets to bear."

The emergency document also states that the spill has grown in size so quickly that only 1 to 2 percent of it has been sprayed with dispersants.

The Press-Register obtained the emergency report from a government official. The White House, NOAA, the Coast Guard and BP Plc did not immediately return calls for comment made early this morning.

The worst-case scenario for the broken and leaking well pouring oil into the Gulf of Mexico would be the loss of the wellhead and kinked piping currently restricting the flow to 5,000 barrels -- or 210,000 gallons -- per day.

If the wellhead is lost, oil could leave the well at a much greater rate.

"Typically, a very good well in the Gulf can produce 30,000 barrels a day, but that's under control. I have no idea what an uncontrolled release could be," said Stephen Sears, chairman of the petroleum engineering department at Louisiana State University.

On Thursday, federal officials said they were preparing for the worst-case scenario but didn't elaborate.

That's ****ing, *****ing* bad.

Immense havoc wreaked on our coastline.

POSSIBLE scenarios don't mean PROBABLE scenarios.

Yes, it's POSSIBLE the wellhead could become detached. If it does, yes, that's ****ING BAD.

Let's tone down the tin here eh? I live here and frankly, this is a risk of such ventures and always has been.

The 1979-80 10-month Pemex gusher pumped 30K barrels a day into the Gulf.

-- This is not unprecedented.

Quote:

The 1979-80 10-month Pemex gusher pumped 30K barrels a day into the Gulf.

-- This is not unprecedented.

Exactly what I was about to post.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ixtoc_I

Also Iraq dumped 8 million barrels of oil into the Persian Gulf during the first war.

I hope this time it doesn't go over our heads. We really shouldn't mess with nature just so we can selfishly maintain some lifestyle. We can still live comfortably with less energy (solar power)

No we can't, and this sort of utter horse**** is how one leaves Tickerforum.

If you want to live with less energy, go for it. Don't use the socialist "we" when expressing your desire to live like a caveman.

Adding renewables to the energy mix is noble, but they they still don't make up much of our total production. Coal and oil are not going away anytime soon, get used to it.

It's flammable, right? Can't we just burn the ****? Seriously.

It can be combusted, but the by-product ain't exactly Febreze.

Quote:

Vast quantities of black smoke can be produced from in-situ burning. Following an accidental fire on board the CASTILLO DE BELLVER (South Africa, 1983), clouds of black smoke resulted in an oily rain falling on farms up to 80km inland contaminating sheep and wheat. Fortunately, most of this residue was subsequently washed away. The accidental ignition of the cargo on board the AEGEAN SEA (Spain, 1992) caused dense clouds of black smoke to threaten the town of La Coruņa leading to temporary mass evacuation. In addition, black soot coated several buildings which required cleaning.

Although both incidents are not examples of an intentional in-situ burn, they illustrate the possible consequences of burning oil when the smoke will be carried across inhabited areas. Health and airborne pollution concerns could prove to be a major obstacle in gaining permission to employ the technique in an actual spill and alternative methods of clean-up may be more appropriate.

http://www.itopf.com/spill-response/clea....

In that article it states "The US had TWO MONTHS to prepare booms to protect major inlets".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ixtoc_I


Well not this time.

Very very bad scenario unfolding here.

Guys,

I'm in Mobile, at the center of this disaster, and I can tell you that "unified command" is a total cluster-****. Many local agencies are being told that they can't prepare for the slick because all of the volunteers would have to take a 4-hour course beforehand. Many are not getting permission and are preparing without their blessing...

I'll keep you posted...

http://www.facebook.com/DeepwaterHorizon....

If the worst-case occurs, I am wondering if it may be necessary to evacuate a large portion of the gulf coast for several months.

There are a lot of vapors released from the evaporating organic chemicals. H2S and Benzene concentrations in particular could reach unhealthy levels.

Interesting paper discusses here: http://www.iosc.org/papers/01266.pdf

Has there ever been a prolonged spill of the type this close to major population centers?

Zara, is there anything those of us north of the salt line can do to help (other than prayer)?

Snow,

There isn't much we are being allowed to do down here because of the bureaucratic red-tape. I'll pass any info I have along on this thread. I have a buddy that is conversing with "UC," but he's getting frustrated.

For me, i'm going to eat several dozen raw oysters tonight at a local seafood restaurant a block away. The damage to the oyster crop could be catastrophic. We're hearing 20-years(WCS) from the head of one our local conservation agencies..

There ain't **** you can do about it down here - I live near Destin and the fishing folks (including me) are freaking about the possible damage, but you can't do a damn thing to help.

Either the wind and luck cooperate on keeping the **** away and they get it capped, or they don't.

I don't mind admitting that this one has me quite freeking worried.

There's never a good time for something like this, but it's a peak time for most of the gulf coast. I have a pal in Seaside, FL, who rents his house out. He's getting lots of cancellation requests. He claims that 50-80% of homeowners rent their homes along that (VERY scenic) area of the coast. No doubt they have already spent whatever deposits have come in paying mort pmts in arrears; unless they are truly wealthy and need not make anything from renting a second home.

My point is that this is going to lead to fair numbers of foreclosures from folks who *need* to rent out their homes to make mort pmts, so add that to shrimping and fishing and recreation and restaurants and beach burger joints that are likely to get smacked. Thing is, this could be quite longlasting. I pray it doesn't turn into more of a disaster than it already is.

Amen, Gen. Go and eat some good seafood tonight, my friend..

Gamma, my family makes the pilgrimage to 30A about twice a year on average. In fact, we often visit Destin Commons where KD always does his quasi-scientific 'consumer surveys'. (If I ever see KD there I'll ask for an autograph!) :)

We have a trip planned to our favorite condo in Seagrove Beach the weekend of May 12th. By G-d, we'll be there if we have to swim in the pool the whole time. Actually, I would like to see what a real tar ball is (other than something from unix).

Tell your friend I'm interested if he has any cancellation in the Fall. Seriously. PM me.