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| 1%: the interest rate on IBM\222s most recent three-year bon in forum [Credit]
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Throxxofvron
Posts: 10448
Incept: 2009-02-17
Hyper-Speculative Psycho-Facsistic Parabolic Blow-Off
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http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/08/0....Quote:1%: the interest rate on IBM’s most recent three-year bond.
This week, IBM set a sort of milestone in the bond market’s recovery from crisis: The iconic computer company borrowed $1.5 billion at the bargain-basement interest rate of only 1%.
IBM’s cheap money, though, exemplifies the costly trade-offs involved as the Federal Reserve seeks to nurse the economy back to health.
With markets expecting the Fed to keep its target rate somewhere between zero and 1% for at least the next two years, borrowing for short and long periods is extremely cheap. That’s great for big companies and banks, but it’s coming at the expense of savers — a group whom, in the longer term, the U.S. needs to encourage.
U.S. corporations have taken full advantage of low interest rates, going on a bond-issuing binge that has left them with tons of cash, which they appear to be holding largely as insurance against a new bout of financial turmoil, rather than spending on new hires. Nonfinancial companies were sitting on about $8.4 trillion in cash as of the end of March, or about 7% of all company assets, the highest level since 1963. Even before its bond issue, IBM had $12.3 billion in cash and short-term investments, which accounted for about 12% of all its assets.
Big banks, for their part, are seeing bumper earnings as they make use of cheap money and help companies issue all those bonds. Even as their lending continued to shrink, they generated more profits in the first quarter of 2010 than they have since before the recession, according to the latest data from the Commerce Department.
Meanwhile, though, savers are seeing some of the worst nominal returns in decades. As of June, the weighted average interest rate on deposits, money-market funds and other highly liquid investments stood at only 0.29%. Returns on riskier investments aren’t great, either: The average yield on near-junk bonds with maturities close to 30 years stood at about 5.9% this week.
-snip-
If the economy is still struggling, it can’t risk raising rates. But in the debate over whether the economy should be supported through further government stimulus or Fed easing, it’s useful to remember that low interest rates aren’t cost-free, great as they may be for the folks at IBM.
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DIONYSUS: " Thou hast no knowledge of the life thou art leading; thy very existence is now a mystery to thee. " -from 'The Bacchantes' By Euripides “During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” -George Orwell
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Zappafan
Posts: 1817
Incept: 2007-11-30
Atlanta
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With the U.S. 2-year note yielding only .54, it kind of makes sense that an AA rated bond from a stable big cap like IBM would not yield much more. How much more risk is there in IBM vs. Uncle Sam? You might argue that IBM is safer. What seems to be going on is an insane chase for yield. As short term rates collapse to essentially zero, money gets deployed further and further out the curve in terms of both duration and risk. It's virtually impossible to find anything yielding much over 5%, even junk bonds are trading @ rididulous price/yields. We all know this can't end well. But when will it end? Even munis are seeing a buying panic: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=mubYet many states and cities are insolvent. The day of reckoning is when they no longer can service their own debt, and those coupon payments stop coming. But the ass-clowns keep kicking the can down the road; it may be another 5 years until this plays out, but it will eventually.
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The alternative to not borrowing from a counterfeiting cartel is to be priced out by those who do
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Fatso
Posts: 3239
Incept: 2008-02-03
Mars Hotel
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Will this end shortly after the equities market reaches some new, shocking low?
I would think that, at that point, people will perceive that equities are indeed at something like a 75 year low (for example) and there is no more downside. Soon thereafter, money will start rushing out of bonds and into stocks, and that will be the turning point.
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Zappafan
Posts: 1817
Incept: 2007-11-30
Atlanta
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Daneric over at http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com.... has some good thoughts on how the bond market 30 year rally might end. One thought I had today is that money market funds must be having problems with these extended zero short term rates. Many are waiving their usual fees in order to avoid "breaking the buck". But that can't go on forever, these guys are not charity workers. I don't see how you can run a money market fund and not lose money in this environment. Unless they are doing something stupid like taking the money and putting it in higher risk investments.
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The alternative to not borrowing from a counterfeiting cartel is to be priced out by those who do
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Imaboomerdropout
Posts: 305
Incept: 2009-09-13
NY
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IBM can get finanacing at 1% but the IRS says I have to charge my son 3.75% for a loan.
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