How about a new thread for a new year. New highs seem likely across the CME board. Oil higher, floods in Australia and the ongoing La Nina. High debt, high unemployment, and a Worldwide Gov't perspective that they aren't doing enough to redistribute to the poor. We are so screwed.

Watch your capital and ride the trend.

I think we are only one big miss by a major producer from governments becoming involved and everyone should be able to figure out how that is going to play.

It is already looking like like a **** show here in western canada. Soils are supersaturated from eastern manitoba to the rockies with a pile of snow on the ground. Flooding will be an issue and unless the moisture stops for the next five months there will be unseeded acres.

This will be a waiting game to see what Australia brings in for a crop and how much damage there is. I feel for the auzie farmers, finally what seemed like a good crop then this happens. Total volume of grains produced by Australia may not seem that high however they export a lot of what they produce.

2011 should be rather sporting in the grains arena.

On the bearish, keep the price in check side the crops in India are benefiting from very cold temperatures. Crops are in tillering stage, reported to be in good/excellent condition. For once I actually believe them. This should help reign in some of the crazy food inflation occurring right now, assuming they can get onions from somewhere else.

India is however still caught in the catch 22 of export/don't export. With prices where they are I am sure there is getting to be a lot of people thinking about the $ available on the markets right now.

Still snowing up here, flooding is now a given across much/most of western Canada. Does not bode well for HRSW and Canola production.

India's cool weather is getting a bit carried away now. People dying of exposure. Those crops are going to need some heat soon. Cold and wet has a tendency to cause problems with root fungus and other assorted nastiness. China's weather is all over the place in the growing areas, not ideal conditions.

A lot of eyes are going to be on northern hemisphere crops this year. Anything less than record production in the American midwest, europe and russia in the summer of 11 and our stocks will get scary close to negative. As I have said before the black swan in all of this could turn out to be a farm raised animal.

I'm long H wheat and looking now at the new crop futures. I normally wait till closer to seeding but things seem to be moving faster than normal. Acreage per product will be a huge factor this year and I think more of a wild card- but I may be wrong on that.

Just throwing thoughts out but from the prices I would not be surprised to see an increase in bean and corn acres this year at the expense of wheat. Winter wheat did not go into the winter in great shape but there is still time for that to turn around. With these prices questionable winter crops may be torn out for reseeding as well. I think you are on the right track liver.

Dec wheat is much stronger momentum wise than March. I missed the good long there and I think it says you are right about the shift to beans and corn.

Small crops get smaller.

India banning sale of wheat products to curb inflation. We know that 60% of the wheat stocks are not fit for human consumption. Do the math on their stated stocks and you get 8.6 which is just above their 8.2 target.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busines....

Still a "dirty" number, I think. Thanks, Goodlander.

Good look here.

corn, corn ethanol, brazil argentina, winter wheat condition, etc.

One thing in this market that has me a bit concerned is the size of some of the players hands. I see the grains as being priced within reason considering all the factors, maybe a bit high, but nothing outrageous. My concerns stems from the risk of the big hands all bailing at once.

A bit off topic however was at a big farm show today and looked at some of the advertised spot prices. They were all pretty damn close to where the markets are +/- a few bips. What I was impressed with was the spot flax. $16+/bu FOB farmgate. October delivery canola was $11.80/bu. Top of the line air drill and tractor $1,000,000.00 to put the high crop prices in perspective.

^ Dude, I have no Idea what that means. Meanwhile, I did get whacked in Beans and Corn on the big breaks.

Never followed Flax or Canola. I have in the past looked at substituted acres. Are you saying there will be a shift in planting or just for now they look good?

TIA

The part that interested me was that there were no huge negative basis off what the price on the exchanges was. Mostly just interest on my part as there have been some pretty big negative spreads between the exchange and spot in the past. I am not reading too much into it at this time. I did note that there was lots of interest in locking in canola acres (not bu due to present conditions) for fall delivery.

was that what you were asking about liver? The tractor part is for all the people cheering for twenty five cent /bu wheat.

$1 million for a tractor ? It's got a solid gold steering wheel, 1000 channel cable with a 62" widescreen and ... what

Last time I looked, (quite a while ago) the bigger tractors were only a quarter million or so.

Price is for a top of the line tractor with a 60' air drill and multi chamber air tank. After taxes it comes out very close to the million mark. It was fun wandering the equipment. Saw a grain cart with 500bu/min unloading capacity. Good thing there was not a fire, at least fifty million would have gone up in smoke. 35,000+ went through the doors in three days, pretty good for a city of 50,000.

Bacteria bigger threat to citrus than cold weather

VERO BEACH, Fla. (AP) — While Florida farmers have lost much of their crop to cold weather for the second year in a row, they say a fast-spreading, incurable bacteria presents a greater threat to their trees and the citrus industry.

Citrus greening has destroyed groves in the U.S., Brazil, Asia and Africa. Detected in Florida in 2005, it leaves fruit sour, malformed and unusable. Eventually, it kills the tree.

The disease has been particularly devastating because it takes years for citrus trees to reach peak production, and the disease targets young trees, making it difficult for growers to replace those that have been lost.

"It's probably is one of the biggest negative impacts in Florida today, short of the housing collapse," said Louis Schacht, a Vero Beach farmer whose family has grown oranges for 60 years.

more at: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/arti....

Goodlander, thanks for the clarification, good point but possibly too early in the cycle. I agree if it stays that tight, though.

Lplate, Thanks for the China look. Fidgit, Can Florida move to other off season crops? This has been going on for 3-4 years. The writing may be on the wall-- as they say.

Florida citrus growers are taxing themselves and spending about $20,000,000/year on research against this disease. We have made tons of progress on fundamental basic research over the last 4 years. Just last week we announced mapping the citrus genome. My expectation is we will find a solution over the next five years.

The disease is a slow wasting type of disease; not a sudden death. Controlling the insect vector has rapidly slowed the rate of new infection. The basic reasearch is allowing us to delay the severity of disease and this buys us the time to develop either a cure or a method of containment that is economically viable.

However; that said, there has been a push for alternative crops such as blueberries and peaches but these can never replace the scope of the citrus market.

Cocoa very strong early this morning, with cotton LLU again for a while.

How do you explain that the March 2011 futures contract has a 1-year range of
72 to 173 ?????? (each $1 increase is $500, right?)

Good thread here http://tickerforum.org/akcs-www?post=178....

More support Goodlander, for you world calorie count.......