This is August -- there is no dry or cold air anywhere on the southeastern seaboard, the disruptive influence of troughs tends to be slight, and no autumn cold fronts have yet chilled the water near the coast. In August, the primary impediment to hurricanes is the tropospheric cap -- which means you have to be particularly apprehensive regarding any apparently uninhibited cyclone in August. Every category 5 hurricane to hit the US did so in the two-week stretch of central August to Labor Day, and two of them were southern Florida strikes.

Imagine this lasting for fifteen hours instead of fifteen minutes:

They have a couple planes looking at this thing and the NHC sent up a bunch of weather balloons this afternoon across the eastern 1/4 of the country. The timing of highs & trofs is going to determine if she visits the Carolinas or just scrapes the coast.
Gonna be a storm to watch, regardless.

Quote:

So what are the chances this ends up nailing DC at full power?

Right now, doubtful.
Wall Street might get a little somethin' somethin' though.

Them sending up those balloons is a tacit admission that they do not trust the models, and need more data to feed into them. (Both Katrina and Andrew were expected to move northwest while in the Bahamas, and instead jogged southwest and entered the Gulf.)

- - - -

The noise of Hugo: http://www.ultimatechase.com/Video_Libra....

I think if I lived on the eastern seaboard, especially the Florida area, I would be following bezzles advice. His weather warnings have been uncannily accurate.

Jesus H Christ Bez that noise scared the hell out of me. I did not know it was playing till I scrolled down to your comment. Keep the comments coming as we watch this baby gear up.

Good luck to all in the storm's path!

Short of the year material:
http://tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-w....

@cnnbrk: #Hurricane #Irene strengthens to Category 2 storm with winds of 100 mph http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/americas/0....

******nit... just as I'm about to head to the beach on Friday.

As long as this hits south of the Outer Banks, I should be OK in the Ocean City, MD area. I would really prefer if this baby turns Northeast and provides me with some wonderful swell though.

Do it for me, baby.

Wow that's an impressive burst of convection in the last frames of the loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flas....

Wouldn't surprise me if that thing is at Cat-3 by the morning.

Ob: Is, isn't it? Almost looks like a second circulation on the other side of the island. I'm sure it's not and is just a cloud density thing, but looks odd.

Asi, your NOT seeing things.One huge Cape V cane did just that, (the name escapes Me atm), spun off another "Vortex" that was a Storm w/in a storm, so to speak..

00Z runs should be intersting to say the least...
latest recon...

1st vortex, 981 mb, max FL winds 107 kts.
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 0:49:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°49'N 68°51'W (19.8167N 68.85W)
B. Center Fix Location: 115 miles (185 km) to the NE (36°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,944m (9,659ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 92 nautical miles (106 statute miles) to the W (269°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 329° at 60kts (From the NNW at ~ 69.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WSW/W (259°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 981mb (28.97 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 107kts (~ 123.1mph) in the northwest quadrant at 23:30:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 17°C (63°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the W (266°) from the flight level center

Updated vortex:

L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)

GFS still has this thing raking the entire eastern seaboard:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg....

Thought i'd provide a break before, Late-night Tomorrows Runs & Forcast..
This is good, i posted it once before years ago here..
God Bless those guys, "Riders on The Storm"
AKA RECON:
Hurricane Hunters..
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters in Felix (Cat 5)

Quote:

Another worthy note from Hurricane Felix, the flight just prior to the one above was in a NOAA P-3 Orion Hurricane Hunter airplane N42RF (AKA "The Princess"). It had a wild ride in Hurricane Felix on September 2 as it intensified into a Category 5 storm. The airplane hit what the Hurricane Hunters fear most, a powerful updraft followed a few seconds later by an equally powerful downdraft. The resulting extreme turbulence and wind shear likely made the aircraft impossible to control. This very likely pushed the aircraft to its limits. The aircraft commander wisely aborted the mission and returned safely to their base in St. Croix, US Virgin Islands.The airplane was out of commission for the next day, however, the aircraft later passed a detailed six-hour inspection to look for damage, and has been cleared to fly again.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZ0FplFrI....

Party time! Post the famous before and after Camille 'apartment picture'...

Blame Sonny Eliot for my fascination with weather...

Good idea, dakine:

http://www.weathernotebook.org/transcrip....

I like this one from Andrew, too:

And this one just boggles the mind. Also caused by Andrew:

Quote:

One woman at the party was swept more than 12 miles inland.

Wow.

[Edit: Mo's link.]

Family lives on Topsail Is. --- look out!

GM, Folks... Whoa!
What the Model Runs have done over night...
REMEMBER

Live by the Models Die By the Models...

BEZ, I CALL!

So now We have, of course, me and some points South, still with-in the Cone of uncertainty...
Even a MHC hit or just maybe, maybe a OBX Hit, or.....
A BIG FISH! one that got away....

Karl & most TF'ers might be happy with this part....
Models forcast, a Wallop on LI/NJ/Ri as a 992 millibar cane, CRAWLING...
Meh...Wait on the next run...

Latest discussion from NHC suggests a better comfort level with the models after loading the data from last night's upper-air soundings:

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

SMOOTHING THROUGH ALL OF THE AIRCRAFT FIXES SINCE IRENE MOVED OFF
THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO MORE THAN 18 HOURS AGO YIELDS A LONG TERM
MOTION OF 295/10 KT...WHICH IS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. THE
23/00Z G-IV JET AIRCRAFT AND AIR FORCE C-130 DROPSONDE DATA APPEAR
TO HAVE SETTLED DOWN THE MODELS...AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLY LESS
DIFFERENCE AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW. THE OVERWHELMING
CONSENSUS IS THAT IRENE WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 2-3 DAYS AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH A DEVELOPING BREAK IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
LIES VERY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.

AN EARLIER RECON FLIGHT INDICATED THE PRESSURE HAD ONLY FALLEN BY 2
MB DOWN TO 978 MB...AND THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AS A RESULT...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 85 KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS.
IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SSTS NEAR 30C. THAT COMBINATION...ALONG WITH
EXPANDING OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...SHOULD ALLOW FOR IRENE TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ONCE THE CYCLONE
CLEARS THE EFFECTS OF HISPANIOLA...AND PROBABLY MAINTAIN MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE 5-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL MODEL INTENSITY
FORECASTS...AND CONVERSION OF THE SURFACE PRESSURES DEPICTED IN THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED BASED ON A BLEND OF RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS...SFMR WINDS...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

IRENE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A LARGER THAN AVERAGE HURRICANE. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO REMIND USERS NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR
AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...
RESPECTIVELY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 20.3N 70.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 20.9N 71.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 21.7N 73.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 22.9N 74.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 24.3N 76.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 28.0N 78.0W 115 KT 135 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 31.5N 78.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 35.0N 78.0W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

@BigJoeBastardi
Florida spared direct hit.No changes Carolinas north. Floydian path.. cat 3-4 in NC to cat 1-2New England. Multi billion dollar hit

Looks like its shifted more north east....taking some of the pressure off of me. Though I am ready to go now, evac or bunker. I am not in the best spot being on a island and surrounded by huge trees.