http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/im....

2100 UTC Thu Aug 02 2012

changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

the government of Barbados has changed the tropical storm watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados...St. Vincent and The
Grenadines...and Dominica.

The government of St. Lucia has changed the tropical storm watch to
a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia.

The government of France has changed the tropical storm watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning for Martinique and Guadeloupe.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados...St. Vincent and The Grenadines...and Dominica
* St. Lucia
* Martinique and Guadeloupe

Read more at http://www.wunderground.comd.com/tropica....

Do not like

That is the track of a storm that ends up in the gulf where landfall is the only way out. Btw, most early season storms that hit the US do so in the gulf.

Flap

Great, another new moon summer washout dead ahead. Im never gonna finish my messier photography pin.

Best scenario for it punching into the GOM is to for a weakness to develop between the two ridges that connect from TX to the Atlantic, but the storm would have to be fairly "deep" to "feel" the weakness and slip into the central Gulf.

Distinct possibility.

Oh, and check out the SSTs in the norwestern Caribbean... it hits that and it'll be juicing on steroids.

Yep...

antennae officially up now... though I'm nowhere near panic mode...

intensifying
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/f....

Ernie..

No no no.... do NOT shoot the slot....

GFDL and HWRF models take it to the central Gulf, the other major models take it into the Yucatan... I trust the GFDL model more than the others, so yeah, I'm keeping a closer eye now, though it doesn't look like it will bother me... NOLA and Karl, OTOH, might have to start thinking about their plans for next Thursday...

Also read the latest update, Ernesto sounds like he's getting his act together (50 knots conservatively) I usually read skeetobiteweather.com, they're pretty good on getting NWS updates posted quickly.

The GFDL is incredibly unreliable as a track forecasting tool... and only somewhat reliable in forecasting intensity - although, forecasting intensity is always a WAG.

With such divergence in models, NHC is playing it safe and just going with the TVCN consensus. I don't really blame them, cause this is a bit of a head-scratcher right now.

Check out the latest visible satellite shot... this system is by no means struggling, and appears to be intensifying. It ingested an area of dry air and spit it out like it was nothing.

If it remains at current intensity or Cat 1... my bet is on the central Yucatan. If it intensifies or bombs out in the western Caribbean - which I think is highly likely - then look out gulf coast.

Certainly getting "that look".

Nice southerly and easterly inflow and plenty of convection in the core.

Dry air intrusion tore Ernesto apart and is forcing the system southward; it appears the system lost the bet on being able to get strong enough to "win" and shoot the slot. It has also sped up quite a bit which hurts its ability to intensify. Best guess is that it goes into the Belize/Mexico area as a moderate tropical storm.

However, I do not like what I'm seeing forming in the gulf. Ernesto will likely prevent this from turning into a big problem but wrapped convection is starting to show up in the last few frames of this image, and I'm going to keep a CLOSE eye on it -- SSTs are very warm in the gulf this year....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/l....

Convection's re-firing, although Ernesto looked to be on life support through most of the day.

Probably finding some warmer water, although I'll be surprised if it makes landfall north of the Belize/Mexico border.

If it were not for the deep convection, I'd swear it's degenerated into a tropical wave at this point.

That's an open wave guys and dolls - convention depth does not define a cyclone. The ULL in the gulf killed it.

If that thing in the gulf manages to stack a low under it we're ****ed -- let's hope it doesn't.

Karl I agree. and forget about the NGOM.... it's too far west.

Strange things happen, but this system, if you can even call it that at this point, has degenerated to the point where I simply don't see how it could turn. The subtropical ridge to the north has not weakened as was expected, which would pretty much be the only "open door", and then only for a deep, robust system. Ernesto, in his current form, is not organized enough to "feel" any weakness and turn north. If such a weakness existed, some of the larger pockets of energy might find their way north, but that's it. I really don't even know why it's still a named storm.

Too much land interaction to the south and dry air ingestion are doing it in. I'm frankly surprised it lasted as long as it did, given the fact that it was blasting through the dry air environment yesterday. I guess these things take time to manifest themselves.

And the steering currents in the Bay of Campeche, if it makes it that far, are not favorable to a northerly turn.

This thing is going to bury itself in central Mexico. We'll see how Florence holds up. And the models are calling for the development of another Cape Verde wave after Florence.

Another year of watching the tropical Atlantic.

Since we're getting into hurricane season, I thought I'd refresh everybody's memory about these pages:

http://spaghettimodels.com/
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Couple of my personal faves:

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/home/
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewalltrop....

Well, it's definitely a closed system... with winds up to 64mph. Latest VORTEX message from the recon aircraft:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 12:38Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 12:13:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°34'N 79°59'W (15.5667N 79.9833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 270 miles (434 km) to the SW (232°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,412m (4,633ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 170° at 55kts (From the S at ~ 63.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the E (100°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,469m (4,820ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the east quadrant at 12:05:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the east quadrant at 12:14:30Z
Radar Signature: Good

Oh, I can't believe I forgot this one:

http://www.tropicwx.com/

Takes a long time to load, it's a collection of maps from all over the place.

Yep -- it wrapped back up overnight.

That ULL in the gulf remains pretty-much stationary. So long as it does not stack a surface low under it -- and that appears reasonably unlikely -- then it will serve to block anything from coming into the gulf (good) and just fire off thunderstorms on the periphery (that is, it will get me wet on a daily basis, but that's all)

IF, however, it stacks then things get very interesting VERY fast.

GFS is sniffing out another possible Cape Verde...