Im getting my info from a bunch of pro mets who are looking at the output of the models right now..last hour or so. Also..latest recon has tweeted that the center may be a bit south of where the models are initiating it. Small changes in position here may mean some fairly significant differences down the road. That plus the less interaction it has with the higher terrain in Cuba means it has more time to gain a proper stacked structure before crossing Cuba.

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The big problem right now is that the models are literally all over but none of them have the synoptic data collected today.

Which is why I really just prefer to watch the trending on the TVCN consensus guidance... a good statistical blend...which has been trending further and further west with each successive run.

Latest consensus takes it right between NOLA and Gulfport.

Four Corners = Citrus Ridge

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citrus_Rid....

Pilot, the only 00Z model runs I have at present are the Canadian clipper (which ends offshore Tampa ~60 miles) and the non-synoptics along with the CMC which rakes the Tampa area. The other synoptic-aware models are still 1800Z runs from what I can find.

Pilot, in this particular case, the higher terrain of Cuba could actually help organize the system once it exits the northern coast.

Well, you're free to do that but the reason they set the path where they are is that when they have an outlier or two like this and the rest are yet to run they want to keep the possibilities they have in the cone if possible.

That doesn't give you probabilities. Wait for the 00Z runs to show up as those are the first ones with synoptic data in them. TVCN right now goes up NOLA's ******* and yet I have no confidence in it with the HWRF and GFDL plus others still sitting with the old init data while the two runs that have current init data (most particularly the CMC which is now showing 00Z solutions) are showing a rake of Tampa.

I frequent the American Weather boards and the guys who interpret these models are presently discussing what some of the number crunching is showing. Nothing official yet. I know that this afternoon/evening the P3 and G4 did some upper atmospheric sampling for synoptics so these latest runs should be getting more accurate. I think its still problematic though with center position, system is still "tilted" and its tough to pinpoint the center for initialization.

Yep -- if you're off a few miles on the center at this time out you're off by hundreds of miles a week later.

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Well, you're free to do that but the reason they set the path where they are is that when they have an outlier or two like this and the rest are yet to run they want to keep the possibilities they have in the cone if possible.

They generally follow the TVCN as the center of their guidance envelope. Only reason they haven't hugged it very tightly in the last couple of days is because NHC prefers to hedge by making very gradual changes with the cone.

But as stated above, I'm with you... with the new and accurate upper air data collected today by both of the NOAA aircraft along with balloon soundings, the models will have some real-world information to work with. Looking forward to the output.

BTW looking at the visual plus latest vortex it looks like we may be off on the init position materially northward. That displaces the storm's impact WEST, possibly by quite a bit.

Last dropsonde reported 51 mph winds near the surface. Could be gaining some intensity this evening.

BTW if it REALLY goes over the eastern part of Cuba AND Hispaniola it'll be lucky if it's got any sort of vertical organization left when it gets into the gulf. That combination has literally torn well-organized storms into pieces -- and this one isn't well-organized as of yet.

Wow.

Karl, I don't fully understand the dynamics of it, but I've been told that poorly-organized storms actually hold together better over higher terrain than well-organized, intense storms... the convective energy survives intact and re-consolidates once back over open water. In this particular case, the higher terrain might be what's needed to clean up Issac's multiple vortices/centers. Basically break it down into a blob of energy that could possibly go ape**** once it emerges from the northern coast of Cuber.

I can't buying that LS. I've watched too many storms that looked like they could bomb up big get torn to pieces by those mountains.

We shall see. I still think there's a decent chance the center is further south than where they think it is given what Recon is reporting, and if I'm right on that then there's a chance this thing doesn't go over Cuba until it's well west of the eastern ranges.

That would be BAD, as in addition to displacing the storm west it would take the path over the warm eddy in the Gulf -- that's a nightmare scenario if the storm is vertically-stacked and has a good outflow channel when it gets there.

The GFS is showing more storms coming down hurricane alley in the next week or so.

I hear what you're saying , even though there have been quite a few storms survive the higher terrain of Cuba and Hispaniola to become majors (see graphic).

Recon just found an extrapolated surface pressure of 1001.

GFS should be out in the next 35 minutes or so... Euro output usually tails by a couple of hours. This'll be interesting.

Actually Karl, the metro guys who know this stuff are saying what LS is. That climatology says the less organized it is, the less "damage" that can be done. What it needs on the other side of Cuba is all there. Little shear, favorable upper levels and hot water.

I doubt any intensification will occur until it passes over Cuba anyway. Its an interesting problem at the moment for forecasters due to the lack of certainty on the low level circulation. System is still pretty messy really.

Follow up to my earlier post....

Looking at some of the satellite and ir loops, it looks as if the storm is starting to clear the upper level wind shear that was coming from the north, and also keeping the storm from forming a classic vortex and strengthening. In the last few shots of the satellite loops you can see what appears to be a vortex beginning to form. This would fit with the slightly higher wind speeds and lower pressures identified in the most recent Recon readings.

Earlier I had said the storm could crossover eastern Cuba, in a more steep northerly direction as I believed the storm would continue west further than the models were indicating this AM. With the passage of time as well as some of the new sat loops and recon I believe the storm may travel further west than I had thought this am and actually cross Cuba on the western end of the island in a fairly northerly direction. I am still skeptical of the NW track most of the models are indicating as the storm enters the gulf region as of now for a few reasons. First the upper level high here in the Midwest is moving quick. It will pull east north east tomorrow mid morning I believe. Second. The gap in Florida as Karl was calling it in an earlier post is going to open. I just believe it is a small window and due to the New ridge forming and coming out of Texas is not going to allow for a B-line straight shot to the coast as many of the models are indicating. While not a strong ridge it should cause some wobbling at minimum. Also the tropical depression that fizzled out in the Atlantic today is pushing the wind shear that has been keeping intensification down all day south at a fairly decent rate of speed. This will act to speed Isaac up as a storm as well as aid in core formation and sustained wind speeds within the storm. Those observations as well as the High in the Midwest pulling east north east that It looks to me like the storm will curve back a bit to the north north west in the northern gulf as a Cat 3 or 4 with the eastern eye slamming Niceville and then riding up the Appalachian mountains. I think it will be to the eastern side of the range, but we'll see.

Or it hits the mountains of Cuba and fizzles into a disorganized TS as it hits the southern west coast of Florida.

My uneducated 2 cents.

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RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA.RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA.

Good grief, just what these people living in tents need.

Well, well... hello there, hot towers. White=busting right through the tropopause. D-Max kicking in a bit early, perhaps.

00Z GFS - Western FLA panhandle in 5 days: