Wish all prognosticators reviewed their work!!! Thanks Gen, and Happy Memorial Day

Great Work and report KD! I'll make a donation to the VFW today in your honor.
http://www.vfw.org/

BTW, the Gold Star Video's are worth more than $150, so actually I'm only donating what you left on the table! Happy Memorial Day

This might be the wrong place for this comment. However, Fridays ticker video was bloody fantastic!! Your anaylsis was spot on and will eventually be proved to be correct when we do hit that 1070. Worth every penny of donation. good job K. have a good weekend.

pretty good predictions, I think you might be early on a couple as well, ad a few will not come to pass possibly, but not bad at all, and still time for a few of those to come true...some of the energy rant and the "speaking german or japanese" line I think is way off, personally, but that is neither here nor there.

Great ticker! Thanks!

Isn't there some urban language that German was one vote from becoming the official language in the US?

I'm still not convinced, however, that the munis will continue without some more damage.

"If we don't get our act together, the American Dream isn't going to be there for our kids" - Pete Peterson

..this might be one of the last pleasant Memorial Day weekends we have.. enjoy it folks

Peterson was appointed by Rockefeller in 1969 to run the CFR.

He is one of the biggest players in this fleecing of the U.S. middle class that has ever lived.

Now he feels guilty because he realizes how bad he ****ed over his grandkids and shows up on cnbc acting like a concerned citizen?

I wonder how much Walker got paid to join this billion dollar tax write-off?

After his earlier exposure, probably a decent chunk to tow the line for Blackstone and the rest of the corporate mob.

I liked the ticker as always but Peterson profited off this debacle and his squickbox appearance with Walker was just one more finger in the eye.

Careful what you say about "greenies" -- we market bears are in fact the "greenies" of the financial world.

Yes.

Fundamentally, both bears and environmentalists share a deep desire for sustainable practices and the balanced world that derives from them.

We bears know that unsustainable financial adventures create imbalances that WILL eventually resolve, and in unhappy ways. We are poised to profit from those corrections but would far rather the unsustainable financial practices had been contained before disaster became inevitable.

Likewise, environmentalists know that unsustainable land and water management creates imbalances that WILL eventually resolve, and again, typically in unhappy ways. Like a market bear, the environmentalist wants to see unsustainable practices stopped BEFORE a disaster. Like a market bear, this attitude garners a lot of anger especially when things do start to go wrong.

I believe mainstream environmentalists are open to persuasion. Focus on what is the most sustainable and balanced energy policy, exactly the way you focus on what are the most sustainable and balanced monetary and fiscal policies, and I believe you will move the mainstream environmentalist base. Ridicule them all as "greenies" and blame America's lack of a coherent energy policy on them and you won't. And that would be a shame, because I think your ideas are right.

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I believe mainstream environmentalists are open to persuasion. Focus on what is the most sustainable and balanced energy policy, exactly the way you focus on what are the most sustainable and balanced monetary and fiscal policies, and I believe you will move the mainstream environmentalist base.

There are very few "mainstream" environmentalists.

Nearly all have at their core a desire for us to contract energy consumption.

The problem is that doing so causes contraction of GDP, and they don't mention that little "side effect", but it is part and parcel of what they REALLY want to see happen.

KD, good review ticker. I have no doubt all of the stated predictions will pass, the only question is how soon and the magnitude of the impact of the prediction. They are all sound and based on solid common sense, good economics and valid historical perspective.

The times of reckoning and accounting for the sins of greed are soon upon us. I am bailing from my life as a "corporate techie" and completing my "financial bunker" and other facilities needed to ride the times ahead.

Let me propose a hypothesis: The generation that will be most adversely affected with this mess will be the boomers. They will soon realize that their savings are gone, their homes worthless, no medical facilities and healthcare for old age, and their retirements stolen. In other words, financially and socially they are back to the 60's.

This generation has a confirmed history of civil disobedience and resistance against government and corporate tyranny. In the 80's they lost their way and many of the boomers joined an unwholesome pact with the devil inside every greedy company and government in an effort to make money, but they are gaining the right perspective. "Since I've lost it all, why not change it all since we have nothing to lose?"

Can we predict the return to the "good times of youth" by boomers with some civil disobedience, the return of the credo of hippies and communes, drugs and a new generation which purposely loses its way? If you can't win, why not just tune out and dropout?

No ****ing way.

The boomers will whine and cry but they won't get off their ass. They've been de-nutted.

If I'm wrong on this then I am, but I don't see it happening. Hell, I'd love to see some real freedom come back to this country, but historically it doesn't happen that way - we are fated to go through some nasty times first.

That's just how its likely to be.

The Boomers won't attempt to fight city hall - as the largest demographic bloc, they ARE city hall.

Instead they'll try, with moderate success, to force younger generations to pay for their desired lifestyle.

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Nearly all have at their core a desire for us to contract energy consumption...contraction of GDP...is part and parcel of what they REALLY want to see happen.

You may be giving the hard-liners too much weight. I think there must be a silent mainstream base, because otherwise the hard-liners would have no support.

I don't give a fig how much energy people consume, just like I don't care how much debt people consume. What I DO care about is whether that energy -- or debt -- is being consumed in an unsustainable way. If either one is consumed unsustainably on a large scale then we and our kids ALL pay a price.

To put it another way, I could claim that nearly all market bears want to contract debt consumption while their hidden agenda is to destroy GDP. But as bears we know that misstates our case. We don't want to stop debt consumption, we just want to stop unsustainable debt consumption.

Stopping unsustainable debt consumption or unsustainable energy consumption WILL hit GDP. But by definition "unsustainable" means it WILL stop eventually whether we want it to or not.

I am completely open to discussion of whether or not our current decisions about energy consumption -- on both the individual and governmental levels -- are sustainable. If I were persuaded that Americans' use of energy, particularly gas, is balanced and sustainable then I would lose all interest in the matter. More Hummers! But if our use of energy is not sustainable then why should we treat it any differently than unsustainable dependence on debt? The first thing to do when you have an unsustainable dependence on debt is to try to use it more wisely. Why should energy be any different?

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If I were persuaded that Americans' use of energy, particularly gas, is balanced and sustainable then I would lose all interest in the matter.

But Americans', or the world's, use of petroleum, (or other fossil fuels), and their use of energy, are two related but separate things.

The use of fossil fuels is COMPLETELY unsustainable, but so what ?
Our use of all energy IS sustainable, although the costs will rise and ebb, as various future technologies and efficiencies are established.

The world has already been through "peak firewood" and "peak whale oil", with absolutely no lasting ill effects.

So for awhile we'll pay more for fossil fuels, and then we'll be using something else, as KD has laid out. All he's saying is that one cannot both block exploitation of known reserves of fossil fuels, AND whine about high fuel costs. One or the other, take yer pick.

Did Dick Bove print a similar prediction list for this year?

What a great Ticker for Sunday. Unfortunately, I know three people that have dug themselves a ditch by their shelter choices. One in particular really stands out. D & M in Arizona. I think they have a 1st, 2nd, and HELOC. Apparently, their combined monthly is $3500. They don't have it. Yet they still strive to get to the so-called "restructure date" in July. Meanwhile, beautiful TV, but no cable or satellite service. No propane means no hot water. This is not a joke; it is reality in May 2008.

Gen,

Great Ticker once again.

If my history is correct (which i hope it is but am not positive...):

1. a few hundred years ago there was quite a successful "cornering" of the gold market where apparently the pig men bought up all the gold, then hoarded it, and because everything was tied to the gold standard they were able to "create" recessions, booms and busts etc. - similar to the kind of damage that some feel the worlds central banks are able to cause these days.

2. I think we can also go back to the buying up and dismantling of public transportation by the big car companies (in LA and so MANY of our cities accross the country) , the crushing of the electric car and numerous other ideas, inventions etc. along with MANY other disasterous victories by major Car manufacturers and Big Oil which have contributed to the mess we are in with oil, gas, emissions, and more...........

Tiberius,

Totally agree with you. There will be a transition from an oil based economy to something else. The transition from wood and coal to oil was relatively smooth, historically speaking.

However, there are still some questions. Could it be that for the first time in history we fully move to a power source that can be produced from a variety of fuels, electricity? Probably so. This may make future transitions smoother since the power generation system (electricity) can be changed without affecting the consumer's investment (i.e., do you know or could you tell whether the electricity powering your home comes from a hydroelectric or fossil plant?) in power consuming products.

Unless they go away from oil ASAP big American car companies will go the way of the horse buggy. Saturday I was picking up my daughter's 2001 Honda Civic from the repair shop at the dealer when I was approached by an upset man. He'd just found out that his big 2007 Ford SUV had lost 30K in value. The dealer wouldn't give him more in a trade. In desperation he asked me if I wanted to trade right then and there my daughters Civic (he didn't know it wasn't mine) for the Ford. He brandished his title to show he was serious. He was almost crying.

I think the biggest casualty of this era will be the American psyche. For once, Americans will have to learn that dominance in foreign policy and rugged individualism at home cannot continue. This will trickle into business as well. The days of the dominant and egotistical American cowboy in business may also be near the end as well.

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However, there are still some questions. Could it be that for the first time in history we fully move to a power source that can be produced from a variety of fuels, electricity? Probably so.

No.

And if you really are a nuke engineer, you understand why.

Your thesis that Obama wins in '08 and the Democrats win a substantial majority in Congress is in conflict with the one where 'Greenies' are held accountable for their shut-down of any movement forward on the energy front.

Obama is likely to put someone like RFK Jr in charge of the EPA and I believe they'll raise gasoline taxes in line with Europe's.

There won't be any nuclear plants built, no drilling off the coasts and no development of any alternative sources.

These people WANT the American economy to contract.

What they'll do to mute protest is call said protest 'racist' and 'hate speech'.

Be careful what you wish for.

No its not.

One comes before the other Mo.

Great Ticker KD!!! Thanks. Happy Memorial day.

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The generation that will be most adversely affected with this mess will be the boomers.

WTF?! What about the youngins' like myself who have no real savings, no debts, no home, no retirement, and stuck in a classroom watching the economy deteriorate to top it all off? Think it's fun wondering if your even going to have a future the day you graduate?

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This generation has a confirmed history of civil disobedience and resistance against government and corporate tyranny. In the 80's they lost their way and many of the boomers joined an unwholesome pact with the devil inside every greedy company and government in an effort to make money, but they are gaining the right perspective. "Since I've lost it all, why not change it all since we have nothing to lose?"

Can we predict the return to the "good times of youth" by boomers with some civil disobedience, the return of the credo of hippies and communes, drugs and a new generation which purposely loses its way? If you can't win, why not just tune out and dropout?

WTF DO YOU THINK IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW...

If you really think a bunch of old lazy leech****s are going to get off their ass and help, you are sadly mistaken. It might take some time, but when/if my generation finally wakes up, all hell will break loose. However, seeing as how most are mimicking their parents, my faith continues to dwindle..

There is one piece of the puzzle that is often overlooked... music. The boomers had the support of so many great musicians. We have nothing

KD,

You Republicans are all alike, dialing back the clock to the good old days of Barry Goldwater, before we wasted all of our OWN oil on Vietnam.

If we really wanted to get through this cheap energy crisis, we should take our stakes to the hearts of the Generals (and Admirals) in the Pentagon. DOD is the largest user (and polluter) of oil in the world, not some Sierra Club type liberals.

You, like the Prez sez, is addicted to oil. Don't confuse your wish to continue for your massive house/car/boat lifestyle with the engineering impossibility of an electric lifestyle, like Nuke-engineer advocates.

I am doing some work on Solar energy now, and with CONSERVATION, greater efficiencies and electric engines, we can get all the juice we need from the grid to do all of our energy and transportation needs, if supplemented with solar. We can't live idiot NASCAR lifestyles anymore.

Your numbers are NO better than anyone else's on this issue.