see attached. On the daily charts, Wednesday is (so far) an inside bar of Tuesday, which is an inside bar of Monday, so it's a cool pattern.

I personally wouldn't go short a southward break of it (which is the direction it will most likely break), as the 100 DMA is pretty close.

Broke north out of the triangle, but the breakout is rubbish so far, and needs to make headway further north, or else it will have to be re-classified as some kind of a bullish wedge/bearish flag.

Hopefully Bernanke can break us out (somewhere, anywhere, I don't care) tomorrow.

Retest of the busted triangle trend line and a blast north - that's more like it, you little tease.

Was anyone else thinking that the dollar would be going after the March lows with all this talk of GSE failures? I'm thinking I'm missing something on why the dollar has shown so much strength to a lot of the major currencies the last few weeks!

EUR/USD weekly candle should be a very nice bullish engulfing one....unless Bernanke/Paulson can perform a Friday miracle.

The channel is broken and it's not showing any signs of recovery. I am truly worried now.

Well this has been a nice little earner. Now we are in potential double-top territory though, so it's a time to tighten stops and no toilet breaks.

No-one else in the FX world seems to agree with me, but I see a good chance of this being a double top on EUR/USD, or at least an expanded (153-160) range.

I agree Clarence! :) ......seriously I do.

The European banks really started getting grumpy last time the EUR.USD approached 160. There will be political pressure not to let it get too much higher than here in my opinion.

I actually think that somewhere in this range will be a very long-term top. Perhaps after a big spike or two higher though.

John

Thanks John!

Looks like today's candle could close as a shooting star.

Yep, shooting star and possible double top? I still think that the EUR.USD tests 148 again in the not too too distant future.

John

Shooting star on the weekly as well now. Although it's only Wednesday. AND I think I see some kind of H & S forming on the hourlies. But I won't post a chart, as it looks a little bit rubbish.

Most of the tech recommendations I have been reading see 1.58 as being a buy zone. But I think the picture turns quite bearish if it gets that far.

Oil is down and sinking. Any thoughts how this affects eur/dollar?

I'm long dollars and think that is the place to be at least longer term, since europe is already following US in recession. The bigger picture IMO is saying euro is overvalued. Other opinions?

Hyvaa paivaa, Finn.

I have been quite surprised that the EUR/USD has held up so well as it has with this dip in oil; recently they have correlated very tightly. Presumably, EUR/USD has been lent support by the sharp reversal in EUR/JPY.

I think if you aren't leveraged, then it's good to have some USD as part of your portfolio. As a leveraged idiot, I am flat this pair, pending confirmation of this being a double top.

So, thanks to MER and GOOG, it looks like we will end up with a green day. I like a break of 1.59 to get me all bullish again. That would open up a run at the 1.60's, and you know what they say about treble tops.

beautiful short on the Euro here... I'm short an assload of Euro from 1.5870. We've got a double top at 1.6 and now a downward channel... now we are overbought on the Euro on short-term indicators. Stop 1.5955, target 1.5700 or lower.

that was an impressive dump in the Euro. Closed half my position for 88 pips to the good, leaving other half open, moved stop down. Still looking at 1.57 or lower before we reverse.

Good play, Ramthebulls! I went long from Monday's break over 1.59, stopped out yesterday under 1.5830.

flipped around at 1.5698 and going long euro now. This bailout nonsense has to hurt the dollar at some point. Now the Euro is oversold, looks like a solid set-up for a bounce, particularly if the bailout news hits bucky. Stop 1.5630 target 1.5850 or 1.59

Ramthebulls, your stop loss placement is superb! Both times now on this pair the price has come to within a RCH of triggering your stop, then it reverses to your favor.

Well done, mate

I take off my stops while I'm watching my screen as my broker has a tendency to run physical stops... luckily I was making lunch when the bogus run to 1.5628 occured so I didn't get hit. I'm not sure this trade is going to work though, the Euro should have been up much more with our market acting this weak. I've pulled the stop up to 1.5660 and entered it physically as I'm heading out for the afternoon, so it is quite likely that this trade is going to be a loser. However, the bank off the last one was pretty good, so I can get hit a few times before another winner. My luck with stops is not usually this good, so I wouldn't be surprised if I have a few losers in a row now.

Clarence, what's your intermediate view of the EUR/USD pair? I'm thinking the 1.60 area is the top, but this is more a gut feeling than anything concrete I can quantify.

Great insights in this exchange, thanks for sharing. I'm gonna get my gold star...

Hello Ram! Glad you managed to stick with the trade from that stop run.

Today is suddenly threatening to print a bullish daily candlestick, bouncing off the 100 DMA (so in a prime position for a reversal north). Pretty amazing, when you think back just a few short hours to where the price was.

Well, I have to respect such price action, so I will be buying a break of today's high (1.5715), and be aiming for another run at 1.60. But if today's low gets taken out, then the situation becomes very bearish for me, so I will sell a break of that for a run at the bottom of the range (1.53 area). And if 1.5280 is broken convincingly, then we have a double top!

Please also note that I have had a negative Midas touch lately, and fading my trades over the last few weeks would have been very profitable

There is also a trendline on the daily chart that goes back to August, that could provide support on a break of today's low. Not many analysts out there seem to have spotted this yet, which surprises me, because it looks a biggie to me.

So, I hope tomorrow breaks north out of today's range, as there is less in the way of resistance above.

Let's hope so. I have a policy of not closing out trades until I hit a stop or a limit, but I'm sick of this trade. Two near stop runs... missed my 1.5660 stop by 0.0003... I don't get why we aren't going higher. I hope your trendline is right.