I'm not sure whether this list was released so I made my own. Only CA and FL right now, it takes time to type this stuff into Excel from Bankrate.com

I easily found about 7 banks that are in as bad or worse (FAR worse in some cases) shape as Indymac a quarter before closure. I used my own ratio that combines the Texas Ratio and Equity/Asset ratio to make a rough estimate of what the bank's equity ratio would look like if non-performing assets are recovered at 50%. Seems to correlate nicely with the most recently failed banks.

Anyone think this list would be a good idea to publish? I mean, I don't want to incite a general bank run but seriously, I don't see how these banks don't fail.

Edit: Here as the lists, generated from FDIC data. There is the troubled list of course, and two lists of well capitalized banks with few bad assets for a safer place for your money. The nice bank list is broken up into two lists by state to reduce the file size of each list.

Troubled: http://www.geocities.com/tubeguy@rogers.....
Safer (AL to MS): http://www.geocities.com/tubeguy@rogers.....
Safer (MT to WY): http://www.geocities.com/tubeguy@rogers.....

Do it.

Its based on your analysis - it is perfectly valid to publish your analysis.

OK I made a web page out of that Excel file.

http://www.geocities.com/tubeguy@rogers.....

Thanks Obseedian.

Those in Red and Orange are the 7 you're highlighting? How about those with NPA:A ratios not highlighted and higher than those 7?

Much thanks

Yes the red and orange ones are the most likely to fail.

The list is sorted according to effective equity/assets, you have to scroll over to the right to see it.

Some have high NPA/A but also have higher equity/Assets so they can withstand higher writeoffs. Of course I only used Bankrate's Equity/Assets column, some of these banks have much lower tangible equity/tangible assets ratios. But it's unclear whether the equity/assets column uses tangible equity or total equity.

So take it with a grain of salt.

Looks like I'm gonna run into my hourly 4.2MB data transfer limit

Well it's a free GeoCities account, what can I expect?

Updated the list with banks from NV and a few from OH and AZ.

A bank from Scottsdale makes the red list. What a shock!

Thanks obs

Good Lord I just found out my parents have 400k in FED!!!!!

It's in a trust account owned by 7 people (I being one) and is FDIC covered up to 700k. I told my mom on Friday to go get 10k in cash (I didn't know their bank was was FED).

Hopefully since FED is probably one of the next to go under, the FDIC will be able to cover it.

Great job!
Wow, I thought Fremont would have succumbed by now.

Updated again with some NY and MI banks. Sheesh, lot's of rancid banks in Michigan, including a fairly sizable one. Sorry, Steph!

Fremont got acquired so their data is probably not relevant. Maybe relevant for CapitalSource!

Nice work, thank you for post, but I have a question:

I am having trouble identifying a bank on Bankrate.com. Family member has a CD from "Guaranty Bank" (that's the name on the building anyway). Bankrate shows about a dozen banks with "Guaranty" in the name but none of them are listed in this town. Grandma says "some of the paperwork says something about Texas" the one in TX is rated at the bottom of the scale... Does the FDIC have a site with more thorough bank names/addresses?

Guaranty Bank of Texas has the worst CAEL rating and worst "star" rating, yet it didnt make your list, am I missing something?



--Irony, definition: Andrew Jackson's portrait on an FRN

Thank you Obs..

Your chart makes it much easier for me to send to family and friends when they ask me which bank is safe.

Friar

The list is not exhaustive, I only did a few states. I didn't do Texas. I have to do this manually. If someone knows where I can download the raw data that would be AWESOME!

Guaranty Bank does seem to be under-capitalized. I just included it for you on the list.

Thank you, I think I understand the distinction now. (Your list specifies the state in which the bank is chartered, not necessarily including banks operating in states out side their charter/home office location?)

Yes the state you see is where they are chartered/hq'd.

However there are so many of them I just don't have time to enter them all. For example the list for GA is big, I haven't really looked at it. No time.

Great chart, Obs...thanks for publishing it!

To look up your banks info go here:


http://www.bankrate.com/brm/safesound/se....

I know this web site updates without notice. Check it often.

Great work Obseedian - thanks!!!

I assume you guys know about the "Texas Ratio"

http://www.snlcenter.com/bandt.asp

Quote:

The term "Texas Ratio" was coined by RBC Capital Markets analyst Gerard Cassidy and others at the firm's equity research teams, who used the ratio to identify potential bank failures when covering banks in Texas during the 1980s.The Texas ratio is calculated by taking total nonperforming assets, including loans 90 or more days delinquent, and dividing them by tangible total equity plus loan loss reserves."

Anyway this is an example from Chicago.

Of course Georgia banks are in a completely different class.

National rank	                               Assets*	        Texas ratio(%)

1. Integrity Bancshares, Alpharetta	       $1.21 Billion 	372
4. Triangle Financial Group (The Community   
     Bank), Loganville	                        $625 million 	246
8. FirstCity Bank, Stockbridge	                $255 million 	211
11. First Georgia Community Corp., Jackson	$293 million 	182
14. Omni Financial Services (Omni National 
      Bank), Atlanta	                        $997 million 	178
19. First Security National Bank, Norcross	$140 million 	154
20. Southern Community Bank, Fayetteville	$372 million 	147
23. FirstBank Financial Services, McDonough	$432 million 	144
25. Newnan-Coweta Bancshares, Newnan	        $240 million 	130

Thanks OBS. Nice work.

I bet First Fed shoots up into the red soon once they disclose the NPA's come earnings on 7/25. They have gone parabolic like Downey.

Hey, Obs, nice work. Think about Bankrate (RATE) to short! Not too many remaining advertising sponsors.

Good job!