Well, here we are. I know many on this forum said we could never get here, wouldn't happen couldn't happen. The US wouldnt try to nationalize the losses because they couldn't. Look at the math I was told, it's below zero so it cant be done. Well here we are.

Hopefully I can ask this question and not be tarr'd and feather'd by the forum community for daring to doubt the shared wisdom of the group. I simply think for myself and what I'm seeing and what I'm reading dont jive. It doesn't jive from Paulson, from CNBC, or quite frankly even from here.

First, lets talk TNX. I'v been watching the TNX, the TLT, the IRX and nothing really seems that out of line. In fact, if you look at the [url=http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?i....ATR] [/url] for TNX you'll see its 0.952 today... which is not much volatility. In fact back in March it was above 1.25. We are not seeing a drastic surge in long bonds in the past few days that is anything out of character with the recent rally in the markets.

Now, maybe bond vigilantes. The wisdom here was that the US governent would not nationalize because they were afraid of the repercussions. Do you think the financial community. (THE VERY ONES BEING BAILED OUT) are going to rock the boat and sink this ship? Perhaps this just wont happen to government debt as everyone here is soo sure.

Here's another one, lets talk dollar. If were looking at taking on 800billion in debt to our tapped out taxpayers our dollar should be CRATERING right? We cant debase our currency and keep gaining. Please, please explain this phenomenon. It's gone up for nearly 5 days straight. On what, a FNM/FRE bailout?

Next, I just want to re-iterate a point I made before. The reason many people do not attend the rallies (myself included) is because you have lost much credibility with constant and incessant "this is it" nuclear bomb dropping "its now or never" and yet the world keeps turning. Your the proverbial boy who cried wolf.. only you did it in a drunken sailor swearing rant every day for a year. Its no surprise you won't have 5,000 people at your rallies, or even 500 for that matter. You refuse logical questions instead insist on attacking anyone who you feel threatens you. The real*****er is I think you understand many many problems. Your right alot, you just completely refuse to accept any possibility other than your own.

12

You can't see the forest for the trees.

Your mistake is thinking that there is no intervention. The central banks all but telegraphed that they were going to prop up the dollar two months ago with coordinated intervention. The ECB was even talking about the need for stability with the dollar.

The bond market? Ten year rates have moved up from 3.8 to almost 4.2 in the space of two weeks, although falling today. But I agree, the lack of bond market panic is surprising, though I think it is around the corner. There are only so many bailouts that can be engineered without dislocation.

You OBVIOUSLY haven't been around any drunken sailors if you think this site uses foul language....****ing tell him RJ !

If you'd grow a pair, maybe you too could be bear, but I doubt it, since "potty Words" make your vagina itch...You sound like a recently converted bull....**** off with your PC bull****.

moabb - I am not saying there is not intervention. I am saying it was spelled out clearly that offsetting or intervening could not be done. It was impossible to stop the effect. Of course there is intervention to stabilize the system, it was cratering - and likely still will. The point I am making is that no one should just expect the financial world or sovereign wealth funds, or the treasury, and central banks to just pack up their bags, say we lost and go home.

Bear - I appreciate the comment, I really do. I don't care about being a bear, or a bull. I am neither, I visit this site to get insight into tradable equities and commodities. I want to be right, not to be a bear. How did TLT puts do today? You gotta play what your given and not what you want to see happen.

Etz - I may be blind here. But come on, to say something cannot happen and watch it happen. To say something cannot be stopped to watch it stopped. To say the repercussions will be violent and swift and see them non-existent I gotta say what the **** mate?

Yes.. we are in the midst of a huge global problem. No, nothing has been fixed with the recent events in house bill, nor the ctfc words, or last weeks dx reversal. But did you guys really not see this coming? As has been said countless times on this forum, there will be no decoupling. Yes do expect to see interventions and the "were in this together mindset" (until someone ****s us that is).

one thesis floating around is that flows from petro dollar recycling initiated by the FCBs greatly outnumber the bond market vigilites - hence the seeming lack of response - this was bandied around wall street examiner so take a look at doc's blog entries if you want to get more detail.

As for the USD become less relevant - this is already happening but is alliviated by there being no viable alternative - take a look at the following article - Das is

http://www.eurointelligence.com/article.....

and mate, dont worry too much about what other ppl think on an internet forum - as your account is green thats all that matters. Green you win, red you lose.

Anything else is just noise.

12 - let me nutshell it for you-

Gen (& others) are critiquing a movie (eerily similar they say) to one they have seen before (ca., 1929), you see what by comparison is a flicker on the screen as you pass by the door to watch Mama Mia (or some ****), who's review would you rather read?

Also, it';s a blog (not GE's NBC) so read a number of 'reviews' and conclude, then trade, pretty simple **** really. (sorry for the language).

ps., that they/he saw it a year ago is bonus points not wrong answers meathead..

since I did a search on my first posts to the forum today, and this seems just as relevant to me today as it it was then, I'm bumping it.