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|User Info||Anybody Like the Agriculture EFT (DBA) Here ?; entered at 2009-07-09 19:25:10|
Registered: 2007-10-02 winnipeg
The USDA has let it be known by their last reports that they are going to be bearish towards the commodities for the time being. Like cat said the cheap food policy is back on. After the last series of reports I expect some magical numbers to appear for yields and acreage totals. So I am not expecting DBA to be making any new highs in the next while. This is barring a frost, flood, meteorite, alien invasion or GS being long the market before the end of the crop year.|
Our next likely potential for a run up will be November when all stocks on hand are counted up (if not fudged) with the start of the chinese and indian crop year. There could be a lot of surprises between now and then but I am not putting a big play on the table for it. That being said in this arena with the stocks still being relatively tight there is potential for upward movement. However continued bearish press coming out also gives room for more downside to come.
Basically right now I am saying I don't have any idea in hell where the prices are going. If I knew where GS and the like were placing their trades I would be able to tell you with a fair degree of accuracy; I think they get their hands on the reports before the release date. Someone was short that market and it did not seem to be the people who had done their own research.
As far as the ABC's I am not a good enough EW guy to respond to that question, someone else here likely is. It is a good idea to look at the charts of the underlying as well as the DBA charts.