How do they get YOY numbers for August and we're not through with the month yet?

ETA: And no comment on the AFL-CIO guy named to head the NY Fed?

J

No need to worry about bankrupt consumers, Bernanke has the Keynesian bazookas locked and loaded for another term.

The consumers wallet has been clamped shut, it has been taken away. I am seeing the same thing.


What we used to call disposable income is now gone, hours are being cut back furloughs are now common place and there is nothing left to cut except more jobs. Cutting more jobs of course will lead to just another step down on this descending death spiral.

And the high frequency data I am hearing goes along the lines of "I'd love to but just don't have the money, and I might lose my job".

100% agreement and spot on as usual. Christmas is going to suck.

People are putting school supplies on layaway (and layaways has it's roots in the Great Depression).

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32541689/ns/....

Also, rail traffic continues at about -18% YOY.

http://railfax.transmatch.com/

Redbook has been remarkably consistent unlike some other indicators which tend to fluctuate all over the place. Doesn't matter now though. Mr. Market wants to fill the Oct 2008 gaps and is going to fill them. I have seen the light. I am sitting it out until we fill those gaps. Then, I suspect, we will correct and correct hard. We shall see.

Stock market get it? Nah. Not today anyway...dollar just dipped below 78 again at 10 this monring, so, up up and away!

How come we are seeing 4% YOY decline but we are also seeing 30% in export/import rail cart traffic etc... Why is there such a difference ? are most good manufactured locally ?

"Yaldor" wrote..

How come we are seeing 4% YOY decline but we are also seeing 30% in export/import rail cart traffic etc... Why is there such a difference ?

I've been wondering this as well. Of course a lot that gets moved by rail and ship is not consumer goods that is sold in stores. Auto shipments are down much more than 4%, for example.

Also possible that stores have jacked prices up on reduced volume.

I will add that there is also some used dog food on the dry, brown, stinky tumbleweeds.

I was at a Sears Hardware last night. I was only making a small purchase since I am trying to starve the beast. There were several displays advertising the layaway program. I have not seen that advertised like that in years if ever??

What comes after layaways? Smash and grab?

Back to school shopping?

Doesn't layaway get booked only at the end of the transaction?

http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/ak....

Maybe there'll be green sharts when folks drop that final installment?

Maybe everyone is putting school supplies on layaway so they can get their kid the latest iPod, iPhone, etc.

One of the few things you're wrong about. It is about lack of desire to shop. Many have seen the error of their ways. It is also about lack of ability.

Deleted.

I started seeing layaway displays at the Walmart nearest my house last summer & fall, actually. I remember, because I thought it was interesting to see that relic from my childhood again.

Gen, tumbleweeds are a perfect metaphor for this mess, and they dovetail nicely with the "green shoots" lie. Tumbleweeds take root, somehow suck moisture out of dusty, brown earth and hot, dry air, and grow as fast as lightning for a brief period. Then they shrivel up and turn ash colored just as quickly, dislodge themselves, and roll away. After that, they pile up in ugly pyramids, providing cover for rattlesnakes and scorpions and other ****ty little creatures. The best way to get rid of them is to light the entire pile on fire.

Possible that people are saving up for Christmas this year and will spend nothing until then - resulting in a good retail number at that point (for whatever businesses are still in business by then)

I am actually surprised the decline is not greater. Very few people at the outdoor outlet mall the weekend before school starts. Most cases we were the only ones in any given store and lots of discounted prices.

Doing our best to starve the beast but the kids keep growing. Many of the stores would have 4 or 5 clerks standing around talking with NO other customers in sight so I can imagine we will still see further cuts in labor force. I talked to most of the clerks in the stores we visited to ask if it was unusually slow and they all replied that it's usually dead but they like it because it's less work for them. I was amazed at how often I got the same response.

Aja: saving for Xmas? ****, everyday was Christmas in the US of A in recent years. Spend, spend spend, 24/7 365. Maybe now Christmas will again become that one time of the year when folks spend with $$ they've saved. We'll see.

The only times I ever used layaway was for a pair of stereo speakers from a pawn shop and a guitar from a musical shop when I was a young teenager in the early/mid 1980's with little money and a job at a car wash and as a construction helper. I have not seen a layaway sign in a store in quite a while.

We have lots of tumbleweeds around here. My back fence runs perpendicular to a mile plus long alley that runs east-west and during the fall months we have a lot of strong westerly winds and I literally have hundreds of tumbleweeds that stick there. I hate the damn stickery things! lots of them to burn (on a non windy day of course). what an inferno that creates! it is a great analogy.

They do come in handy during hunting season, though. I pile them up around me to create a makeshift hunting blind. Tasty animals don't usually anticipate a human hiding in a pile of weeds piled up at the edge of the woods!

Quote:

One of the few things you're wrong about. It is about lack of desire to shop

This was my thought by I did not wrote it because I have no way of having data on it.

Karl,

This is the key key issue: Has the US consumer lost it's appetite and increase it's saving (even beyond paying down debt) We are talking here about electing to do so - not being forced to do so.

My guess is that there are many people who still have a job or a biz but they are shifting their view of the world and realize the need to save (and that "saving is not done by spending a $1 on super-size super save fries and coke) saving is about not using all the money you bring home - do people think about the future ?

This is the key issue and this is the one thing I would like to measure: How did consumer change their elective behavior ?

I don't believe the huge increase in Garage Sales in my area are being driven by people's desire to make room to buy more ****.

Layaway was popular before the days of credit cards. Credit is being yanked backed from the middle class, thus the re-emergence of layaway plans.

JLK: it sure was more popular. I used layaway plans to buy my first high end rifle and all my scuba equipment back in the early-mid 80s. Kept going back every payday with a few more $$$ until it was paid for. Credit sure does make for better retailer cash flow.

If lay-away is structured like it used to be years ago then you have a limited number of months during which you must redeem the item. Some stores set minimum payments to be made or it was lost. The usual agreement was that an unclaimed item or one on which the minimum payments were not made was forfeited with no cash back owed. It only made sense when the item was on sale or stock was limited.

On an normal year, how does consumer spending in August compare to July? It seems to me that August *should* go up. Vacations and back to school shopping should almost guarantee that August should be higher than July. For me the month over month numbers in this report are even more significant than the year over year numbers.