More than any other reason these type of tickers is why MT is my favorite website. No where else is it easy to get QUALITY analysis of important numbers this quickly.

Pshaw Gen. This is the TRUTH right here:

"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods rose more than expected in July, posting their biggest gain in two years, according to a government report on Wednesday that offered more evidence a modest economic recovery was probably starting to take shape.

Durable goods orders jumped 4.9 percent, the largest advance since July 2007, after falling by a revised 1.3 percent in June, previously reported as a 2.2 percent drop, the Commerce Department said.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast orders rising 3 percent in July. However, compared to the same period last year, new orders were still down 25.8 percent.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)"

"reporting"

gotta love that one.

Wake me up when the KD thinking is the norm and guys like us don't feel like we're Jack Nicholson in One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest.

July 2009 SA shipments are down 21 percent from July 2008, spare me the Kool-Aid.

Karl, correct me if I am wrong, but don't they ADD aircraft merely when ORDERED and never SUBTRACT when the order is cancelled?

Of course Glock. Same with Machinery, which is IMHO a bigger deal.

I truly hope that the "gains" do turn out to be ephemeral and short-lived. Why? Not because I want the entire shebang to come crashing down to dust but because I fear what happens if gains feed gains and things actually do start to look better and sustainable (for a while at any rate). THIS, in turn, would inevitably lead to pats on the back all around the Fed, Treasury, GS, BoA, etc. THIS would inevitably lead to all the wind going out of whatever is left of any sails for reform, regulation (and enforcement!), trials and convictions.

They would all claim publicly and amongst themselves that they "fixed" everything and that there is no reason to change a damn thing - all is well. The GS robber barons, the BoA robber barons, and their best buds at the Fed and Treasury would get together in one of their special clubs to gladhand each other and smoke their stogies and laugh at the little people who were successfully bilked and milked and, "Who's up for another round of bonuses? HAHAHA!" would result.

I don't want any green sharts to turn into green shoots until AFTER there has been REAL reform and, one way or another, real culpability is determined and ALL who have been stealing and cheating the US public have been brought out and hung from street lamps (Mussolini style)...and ALL their personal assets seized and redistributed back to the people that they have stolen from (that would be us).

No green shoots until reform and justice is FORCED.

I love reading first the MSM spin on economic data, then coming here for the real analysis. Thanks Gen.
One note on semicomductors: I work in a chip FAB plant and we have been at capacity for the last few months. Most of the orders are from China's stimulus $$-upgrading their wireless networks...

Does anybody have anecdotal evidence on car sales since Monday? I'm guessing that once CFC stopped, car sales became almost non-existent.

Mondo- here's your answer: Toyota is now cutting capacity 10%; before monday they received about 20% of CFC orders...

Quote:

Defense orders are up 14.8%, again putting a fork in the Democrat/Liberal dreams of Obama pulling back on the military. Nope. This is a consistent trend since the beginning of his administration - he's a big-military guy folks, despite what you may have wished. Welcome to reality; defense was the only year/over/year positive change.

I dont know if this is a just a liberal thing to want to quit policing the world and nation building but I think I understand what you are saying :-) That being said, yes, the welfare recipients aka the military industrial complex wins again. 60 years of perpetual war and the cost of trillions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of lives. I'm glad Obama sees this and is going to quit this nation building and quit policing the world. Err wait a minute HE"S EXPANDING ON IT!!!! Heh thanks for pointing out the true scope behind the numbers. Like others have said its funny looking at the big headlines on places like CNBS and then coming over here and getting the true story.

I am thinking the CFC really screwed the suppliers. It distorted their forecasts so they scrambled to meet the short term blip in demand which lowered their profitability (i.e. it cost more to re-start production lines).

Now that all the demand was pulled forward, their Q3&Q4 projections are too high and they are going to have to shut down more production than they did in Q1 & Q2.

CFC was a really really stupid program.

TJ:
First rule of a developing dictatorship... Keep the military fed & happy so they stay on your side. Just sayin'...

Praedor, there is nothing to drive recovery. Whatever engine would drive recovery, will take years to build up, to reverse our momentum.

At this time, our economy is falling off a steep slope and the cheerleaders go crazy every time we smack something that slows our fall a little, for a moment.

You don't have to worry about recovery while this administration is at the helm, and likely not with the next one.

What I worry about is how far this administration will go to deflect attention. the entire health care reform fiasco was conveniently timed. How many J6Ps are watching the Fed, while the new shiny toy of health care reform is being dangled?

As it get's worse, other shiny toys will have to be conjured to keep J6P distracted. A new war would do it.

Note about those military spending numbers:

The reason they are so high now is because come October 1st, most units are going to have their budgets slashed by close to 50%, because starting 1 October funding operations in Iraq and Afghanistan comes out of internal DoD funding, not supplemental appropriations like we've been doing up through this FY.

We who do all the purchasing for our units are spending like mad buying stuff this year for use for the next few years, because we won't have the money for it next year.

My budget is getting slashed in half. It will barely cover my fixed costs.

Did anyone hear CNBC talk about the ex-transpo number coming in lower than expected? I only heard them touting the topline number. Shameful if they did not talk about that. Credit to Bloomberg radio for giving the ex-transpo number in their news flash.

My call - a mildly positive 3Q09 GDP due to lower imports and vastly higher goobermint spending.

Champagne corks and banker bonuses will be flying like confetti...

Typo alert - "weekly supportive" should be "weakly supportive" (I assume).

defense spending = freedom.

Key issue is still saving.

real saving not just debt repayment.

what do we know about J6P and Ms. Suburbia: Are they starting to save for a rainy day ?

Need evidence stats and ancedotal

Karl, I noticed your mention of a Back to School flop. I just saw this:
http://www.businessinsider.com/back-to-s....

Really sad :(

Hp12c: "I love reading first the MSM spin on economic data, then coming here for the real analysis. Thanks Gen."

USA ToutDay Money page Headlines:

In screaming bold, at the top:

New home sales surge 9.6%, mortgage applications up!

sidebar left: Index sees U-shaped recovery, growth starting in September (Forecast, Jan 2010 - 2.2%!!!)
"top four" box:

1> Durable goods orders up 4.9% in July, biggest gain in 2 years

2> Appliances get their own recycled clunkers programs

3> Stocks keep gaining, but several things could trip them up

4> Survey: 53% of employers plan to hire in next 12 months

=================================================================

WAY down at the bottom:

Power is shut off as bills pile up

"Last holiday, shoppers were in shock" with worry from the financial meltdown. This year customers' problems are more concrete: job losses, reduced hours and reduced or unavailable credit. "This holiday, they're facing the reality."

They should've said "last holiday shoppers were in shock"...."this holiday shoppers are going to be catatonic."

Everyone needs to read the article Tdray posted.

We need an updated, reliable measurement of how much GDP improves per dollar of new debt issued by the government. That will go a long way in determining how much time we have left.

Any ideas how to measure this?