And this is just the ****ing beginning.

The FRB doesn't have the updated Excel file out yet. I already know what my previous graphs are going to look like without them, but you will be STUNNED when they get that out and I transplant those charts over to the new data.

Referring to your weekend chart:

When debt loads correct (vs income levels) we should expect them to initially "overshoot" to levels well below the trendline, correct?

Can't wait to see the updated charts.

You have credit contracting like no tomorrow. Even if people wanted credit their credit is destroyed and the people who have good credit cant get approved or just plain does not want to take any risks. This is deflationary. However the government will not allow this, they will try to monetize all of this debt which will cause BIG problems down the road. China is telling their citizens to buy gold. They have also said screw you on any losing derivatives contracts. I think China knows something we dont or that we dont want to know and they are preparing. Preparing for what? The bankruptcy of our nation. This is some scary ****.

Karl

Does it look like we are going headlong into a "deflationary spiral"?

Soon?

Yavole.

Yikes!!

Thanks for replying

Look forward to updated charts too.

So, speculating here, will this contraction cause enough of a downdraft to offset the .gov stimulus spending such that GDP 3Q09 will be < the 3% "they" are expecting ?

I'm not looking forward to the updated charts. They'll look like a ******n cliff, kinda like a plot of gravitational pull while approaching a black hole's singularity. We've passed the event horizon. "*******n you all to hell!"

Typo alert - Jawohl.

Yup, as in, "Jawohl, mein Führer! Sieg Heil!" Practice it in English.

Actually we need to practice it in Chinese. It will be they we will be swearing our oath to....

是我的赫斯 There you go :)

Tesla, this is what I expected; in fact, it is EXACTLY what I was expecting.

We'll see how long it takes for the market to figure it out. This much I'm certain of - we're ****ed, and hard.

I assumed he spelled "yavole" that way for effect.

Indeed.

Not to get technical but I believe it is actually two words as in Ja wohl.

And this from Rosenberg via Zero Hedge: "Excess Liquidity Game Coming To An End"

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/excess-....

Basically: "...M1, M2 and MZM have commenced contracting at an alarming rate..." Is this the liquidity drain that Karl has been warning about?

Quote:

I think China knows something we dont or that we dont want to know and they are preparing. Preparing for what? The bankruptcy of our nation

I dont think China "knows anything" so to speak. We dont fly officials over here and open our books to them so they can salivate running through them.

They do, however, have economic theories, historical trends, published data, etc etc they they ARE using. My guess is China, like anyone else, has various scenarios played out and planned for and they will execute whatever it is, that is in their best interest. At the time they think is best. Same goes for America too.

True black swan events are never known. When, where, what...that makes them hard to prepare exactly for. And even though I doubt it, it's possible we have some great trick up our sleeves or the cure for cancer waiting or something. Nothing can be counted out from any country, anytime. No one can predict the future, unless you have the Delorean however not enough windmills to generate 1.21 Gigawatts. Gotta go to Iran and use their new nuke plant to get that.

God F*$%King Dammit! This is going to suck.

@ Laserman

If you dont think our FED bank is talking to other central banks including China then I have a bridge to sell you. China knows what is going on and I feel and have felt and am on record saying that I feel we are going through a controlled demolition. Other countries are throwing money at us for the time being so we can go bankrupt in an "organized fashion". Organized in that it is without a massive French Style revolution where we chop heads off and then take our angers out on countries and banks in collusion with our fraudulent government. Then again maybe Im just a little to tin foil. :)

Quote:

Consumers are unable and unwilling to borrow.

Gee I wonder if it might also have something to do with 30%+ CC interest rates and doubling of minimum payments.

.................

Nolite Bastardes Carborundum

Hmmmm...I wonder what the upcoming Xmas shopping season is going to look like.

C'mon guys, you keep forgetting.. The day ends in a Y _and_ the month has a vowel in it, therefore markets must rally higher!

As Ron Burgundy would say, "It's science."

ps: I _love_ how the Chinese official in this article quotes Benjamin Franklin:

Quote:

Mr Cheng said the root cause of global imbalances is spending patterns in US (and UK) and China.

"The US spends tomorrow's money today," he said. "We Chinese spend today's money tomorrow. That's why we have this financial crisis."

Yet the consequences are not symmetric.

"He who goes borrowing, goes sorrowing," said Mr Cheng.

It was a quote from US founding father Benjamin Franklin.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econo....

What kind of world is it when a "commie" is quoting American founding fathers back to us?