25% decline is huge... A flock of black swans, if true.

My spending was down from $1500ish last BF to $103 (and change) this year.

The number I'm waiting for is the sales tax receipts.

John

Sales tax will probably be down quite a bit.

Since most places match discounts people would tend to shop at the ones that do not collect sales tax for a particular state.

The no change compared to the prior week is probably not that significant because for most of the big ticket items they already had the discounts in all their "black friday a week early" deals.

My spending is down 100% because the few things I was interested in were not discounted enough and as time passes the interest is fading.
Most of the clothing and shoes in stores is of extraordinarily poor quality or way overpriced for what it is. Price may be low, but value is close to zero.

Our overall christmas spending (2 parents, 2 kids and 3 grandparents) is about 1/10th what it was last year and about 1/2 to 2/3 was already spent a month ago.

I just got back from the local shopping mall.

It was D-E-A-D.

Yes Rico, KABOOM!

I've told friends and family to watch what happens after Christmas to the end of the year. Why, the fun is just beginning!

After New Year's, the reality and throbbing pain will begin, then the lull until Q4 results break their backs.

-25%? How is that possible with Redbook and ICSC coming in today at 3.8% and 3.1% YOY resp.?

Don't worry - "online Monday" will save the day.

Or maybe "I just could not get out and I will buy on Wednesday"

And then "Holy cow, it is Saturday already I need to shop day"

Things are going gang busters here. It's remarkable what a 3 Billion $ stimulus pump will do in a population of only 250K. (Hanford, WA)

Most retailers were advertising 50 – 70% off sales MONTHS before BF. I cannot see how some of these retailers will survive after 1/1/10. There is lots of traffic in the malls but no one is buying. The only ones making money right now are Goodwill, the Salvation Army, and dollar stores.

Most of these retailers are going to start showing their track marks in desperation so people will take pity on them and give them enough for their next fix. With credit card rates jacked up to the eff ewe mark, no one is going to take pity on them. Pick a number 7, 11, 13 and watch the CRE market detonate in a megaton extravaganza.

The -25% number was per day, if that makes any more sense....

Quote:

Consumer Spending was unchanged during Thanksgiving week, as self-reported daily spending in stores, restaurants, gas stations, and online averaged $69 -- the same as the prior week and not much different than a month ago ($67). The flat consumer spending for the Thanksgiving holiday week compared to the prior week is in itself disappointing, but is even more so given the context of last year's comparables. Even as the financial crisis deepened in 2008, consumers found a way to increase their Thanksgiving week spending to an average of $92 per day. This year's results -- 25% below that spending level -- failed to match last year's holiday week spending surge. While spending last week probably suffered to some extent from the absence of a paycheck, the same was true a year ago. A more detailed look at just Friday/Saturday spending shows a decline of 8.6% compared to a year ago.

Just got home after taking the two little ones to McDonald's for an ice cream cone to kill time while Mommy helped my oldest get a pair of shoes for a holiday school event. Multi-building shopping place...department store, Wal-Mart, auto dealer, bank, oil change place, you get the idea.

6:45pm guys. No one in the McDonald's. The three of us were it. Before we left at 7:20, just two couples had come in.

...and get this...just one drive-thru customer. While I was ordering the ice cream cones, the customer came to the single drive-thru window; didn't have enough money for everything ordered and gave back the 'McCafe' drink (!)

The drive-thru girl walked over bewildered to the counter manager who was ringing me up, and asked what to do with the rejected item. 'I don't know, throw it away.' She did.

The Dollar Tree lot was packed though - cash and debit cards only there...

My personal anecdote, we're certainly not spending anywhere NEAR what we normally do on Christmas. Nobody in my family is.

CNBS = ****-a-Noodle Bull S---.....Funny Karl, TKS for the laugh

Yesterday my wife went shopping at the dollar store. She said it was pretty crowded. Tonight, we just got back from a major outlet mall here in central New York. My wife and I were the only customers in some of the stores. The other stores had some customers, but nothing what you would expect 25 days before Christmas. There was some very low prices in some of the stores.
After looking around, I told my wife that this is getting scary.

We spent around $1k for a plasma TV last BF. Nothing this year - not even going out to eat.

My immediate and extended family has decided to forgo gifts for Xmas this year. I'm guessing that's about $2500 that won't get spent. Choosing to spend the day together, just without gifts. Really looking forward to it, especially since I've already returned about $500 worth of things that were already purchased.

Went shopping tonight, it was empty! Very few of the people at the mall were carrying bags, just mall walkers. Many 50% off sales already, I don't expect to see many of the smaller stores surviving this holiday. This winter is going to get ugly.

Best Buy gift cards for niece/nephew...thass it...

My targeted spending for Xmas this year is ZERO. so far i'm 18 over budget.
Paying cash for schooling (while making 30% less than a few years ago) leaves me proud to say that I still have 42 of my 60 dollars I started last week with. **** the mall, my family will be thrilled that I'm driving 4 hours to show up.

25% down. From last year?? Don't buy it.

I was in a local Best Buy on Black Friday. Never done it before, but was out anyway and wanted a new game. The place reminded me of Times Square on NYE. OK, that's a bit of an exaggeration, but only a bit. Took 20 minutes to get a praking spot. Had to push through a crowd just to get around. Line was literally down the aisle and around to the back of the store.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying good times are here again, but my experience does not represent a 25% decline over last year, not even close.

You're in NYC.

Try the real world.

Our holiday spending will be ~40% of what it was last year as will almost all I've spoken with...no one gives a **** this year.

I'm in NYC. And I'm telling you mid-week in the outer boroughs it is D-E-A-D!

Was at a Buffalo wild wings on Sunday and it was pretty empty. I notice less items being stocked stores. Hot item were the LED Christmas lights. Any LED lights were gone or picked over. I had 2 set from 2 years ago and it had 2 bad connections where it didn't work. So much for LED lights being trouble-free.

My daughter's friend's parents are both unemployed. Plus their home is in foreclosure. The mom is on Social Security disability. Amazing she shops at Nordstroms.

Like who buys the $150.00 Nike shoes? Those sucking the government tit.

Maybe I am being a grumpy old man, but when I was a kid my parents would let me pick a single toy (under $20) from the Sears Wish Book catalog. Nowadays, my neices and nephews are literally swimming in plastic crap, and every year they get more, for birthdays, Christmas, you name it.

Time to starve the beast, neither us nor our kids need basements full of mountains and mountains of Chinese-made crap.