Fist time posting here so hopefully I figured this forum out and this works.

To the subject at hand:

Liked the video a great deal and the charts provided. I am glad you decided to post a video to compliment the earlier post. The video helped me further grasp the charts.

Cheers

whats the difference between previous recessions and current one? All the losses (in trillions) have been socialized. The taxpayers got mercilessly *aped by wallstreet masters (banks) and their political cronies.

I think your charts dont take this into consideration; There has to be a "bezzle trend" on the same chart :) to accurately see the real situation.

I have not wait very very long to see it...
You're a true hero of capitalism ;-)

If you need the raw numbers instead of the pourcentage just tell me :

You will be surprised of the total amount on a 6.5 trillion balance sheet...

I've got 'em Phev..... where do you think the charts came from? :)

raw numbers are in million $...
Happy if you have got them...

Doing the math in my head, the total debt/capita (mortgage, federal, and consumer) rise is about 7 times the rise in income per capita. Does that mean that 85% of all debt must be repudiated or zeroed out to return to to the 1970's levels?

Great video Karl. The gov has put the wheels in motion for a even worse outcome as anyone with debt is looking for a handout or payment reduction of some sort.

Piling on more debt is working. Just ask car salesmen. However don't ask the buyer. Just another microcosm of the macrocosm.

http://dailyreckoning.com/evicted-from-y....

........

Nolite Bastardes Carborundum

Excellent video as usual, Karl! Your grasp of basic mathematics will soon wear the talking heads down. Keep methodically chipping away at them!

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For those of you who think we can "grow out of this", ponder this video...

I wonder how much potential productive ability is effectively locked up because the legal barriers to starting a new business are so high. They are so intent on throwing everything but the kitchen sink at this problem but as long as bureaucrats are making it next to impossible to open anything from a lemonade stand on up then we are fighting with one arm tied behind our back. Of course that arm could be broken and useless, but we'll never know until we try.

"...advocating civil disobedience, the kind that this nation used to be known for, now seen in countries like France" and IRAN

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How the Japanese and Chinese can justify buying even one more Treasury bond or bill while looking at these charts escapes me.

Have you ever considered sending some of this information to the appropriate Japanese or Chinese officials? Just wondering.

Obama Today..

Quote:

US Cannot Afford "That Old Economy -- Over-Leveraged Banks, Inflated Profits And Maxed-Out Credit Cards"... "Wealth Was Valued Over Work"... We Need "A Reformed Financial Regulation System That Protects Consumers"... "Energy Reform [That] Creates Green Jobs That Can Never Be Outsourced"

Sounds good but why does he say one thing and then do the complete opposite by trying to form another bubble?

delete it please
mistake in the link

here is tha link the chart made with the same data

Another nice warm fuzzy feeling in my belly this afternoon... I don't know how much clearer you can make it Karl.....I don't think enough people will pull their head out of the sand in time...

I CONSIDER 1993 as a out of crisis situation it shows that the balance sheet of the banks has made since this date x3, the delinquency has made x4 and the charge off has made a whopping x8...

With Delinquency still raising fast
The five last figures where :
2008Q1 191518
2008Q2 211149
2008Q3 253361
2008Q4 328671
2009Q1 379398 Million $

Charge off are soaring.
The five last figures where :
2008Q1 15624
2008Q2 20545
2008Q3 24424
2008Q4 34917
2009Q1 33770 Million $

US post are quite busy to carry all these NOD IMO...

There is nothing equivalent on this graph 1990, 2000... with the current recession...

We have got a winner there...

If you're wondering what it looked like before everything went insane, here it is... notice that in this era income and assets rose in a correlated fashion and while mortgage debt was above the rate of increase of income and assets, consumer debt was below.

Quote:

Another attempt to do the same thing won't work. We got a horrific crash out of the attempt to "reflate" in 2000-03 - far worse than the market crash and recession in 00-01, and if we try to do it again with this much excess debt in the system compared to incomes we may get no material amount of lift in the economy at all.

is this line correct? the dates don't quite make sense to me..

Yes - they tried to "reflate" starting in 01 and it "took" in 2003.

The result was a far worse crash in 2007/08/09, but the reason for the "worse crash" is that the instability in the system was not fixed.

Have a look one up above yours for what the chart showing growth in income, assets, and forms of debt was during the 1970s through 1984. 15 years of mostly-stable growth, yes, with recessions, but the fact remains that even during Carter's "nasty inflation" binge we didn't blow a huge credit-laden bubble to try to get out of it.

I don't think it's sand people need to pull their heads out of.

Time to dig the potatoes. Should be a good crop this year. Looks like I'll need them.

ok i got it now thx

"with a 6% Tier Capital ratio 2% charge-off rates quarterly give you a mere three quarters before the entire Tier Capital base is exhausted."

Karl the % charge off are annualised, be careful...

Once the debt is defaulted on, and the burden of servicing it has been removed, what is it that western society could do to "add enough value" to fuel our economic growth? Manufacture?

That would be manufacturing on a massive scale. In the Uk manufacture represents 20% of the economy. Would this be expanded to 40% of present GDP?

If gov. spend into the economy is also reduced (living within our means) then manufacture would increase its proportion automatically. But crucially, the increasing % would not provide more £s, just a larger share.

So manufacturing would have to truly expand- double or triple in size. Where is the cash for investment coming from to fund such an expansion, and over what timescale could it really happen?

If the answer is that the interest payments that are no longer being paid can be used to fund the economy.. this cash would have to go directly into consumption... but again it requires actual jobs to generate it. Someone who is making no repayments can splash out on all sorts of stuff... but only if he still has a job.

I guess I am asking, after a default episode, how are we going to add value in sufficient quantity to get back on trend? What sector can fill the yawning gap? Health care?!! And in reality how quickly could it be done?

this don't look good. To me, the default seems only the start of a difficult journey.