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Everyone with their fingers in this needs to be fired and some adults (who actually look at history, along with the math) must be admitted to the room to have a rational discussion on the choices we have as Americans, the paths we can take forward, and their consequences.

Great analysis. How about putting everybody who came up with plan in a straightkjacket in a rubber room somewhere? Seems to me that this plan is based on beliefs, hopes and prayers. Either that or some currently undiagnosed mental illness on the part of the people who came up with it.

Succinct. To the point. And rational. Bravo!

Mr. D.-I know that you are incredibly prescient on math and macroeconomic issues and flawless in your advocacy for what is right and just. I am actually in awe of the clarity and quality of your posts, as many of us here constantly tell you. Thank you again for all you do.

Nevertheless, I am a little green on understanding your predictions which might involve purely human psychology and group psychology. If I may indulge, what percentages do you attribute the future Obama US political machine to believing that it "can hold interest rates at zero for four years and they can spend without bound, while the bond market will blithely look on at $1-2 trillion deficits annually and the economy will begin to recover?"


I give it a full 100%, which sets my course for investing easily-albeit not very diversified. You seemed startled and also believe that some adults can convince them to act otherwise.

Am I right?

Do you believe there is a percentage chance of some other belief, which we are not being told or some uncertainty of their plans which leaves room for changing their policies...no need to answer should you not want to...but thanks in advance if you do.

The plan will continue until market forces halt it. Logic will not prevail.

So perhaps the question should be - given a bad strategy, how do we profit from it? Do we prepare for inflation? Or do we suppose a continued downtrend in the markets? Or, perhaps, a little of both?

The big bucks will come through a swap, not a sale, of T's.

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This plan is asinine in that if it "works" the flight out of Treasury debt that occurs with a recovering economy will guarantee rising rates (and thus torpedo the budget and government through radically increased borrowing costs) while if it fails we will have spent the money that is going to be necessary for that direct assistance to Americans.

I am still not convinced that ANY central planning will work to change the course of this necessary cyclical adjustment. The deflation is the market's attempt at expunging the bad debt, the central planning attempts to prevent this from happening (expunging the bad debt) prolong the adjustment period. Or maybe the Austrian School has just completely converted me...?

criminal negligence...

Kobayashi Maru - and while you can TRY to reprogram the computer, you still die.

Isn't this simple, fed prints money, loans to bank a 0 percent, bank participate in auction, treasury funds Congress/Presidents bull**** spending? Thats it. The market may catch on or maybe it doesn't. In the absence of (or decline of) foreign participation in T auctions, what choice does US Govt have? We will get whipsawed by economic deflation and a devalued dollar. They will play this game right up to or until bonds explode.

The right choice here is politically impossible. Fire insurance premiums must be paid or you are out of office.

Kobayashi Maru - and while you can TRY to reprogram the computer, you still die.

I've slightly updated the Ticker

Karl, I have a whole bunch of cash sitting in my brokerage account which I, at any cost, am trying not to lend to the government. Can my broker swipe my account overnight and buy the government paper. If the answer is yes, what is the best way of denying government the access to my money? MATTRESS??????

Political strength is too divided facing stress that is too great. There will be a bad ending to this story. Too many ill prepared to handle the tough decisions, too many ignorant voters...I doubt a million person march changes anything.

Kobayashi Maru---lol. Classic answer. One does wonder what Kirk would do, probably the green chick.

Kobayashi Maru was as much a test of character as a insoluble problem.

By not saving what can be saved (by letting the failures fail) they are dismally failing the character test.

Omgosh! I saw the headline for this and just knew it wasn't worth reading the news, when I could get your take.

Holy **** though! The masses are going to be rah rahing louder and louder while the Titanic sinks, except they haven't noticed that iceberg we hit. People are already believing this **** is gonna save us.

Something is definately amiss almost everywhere I look. RE inventory is WAY down in my County, fooling everyone into thinking the market is turning. Yet we are at a record high on foreclosures, even with the holiday moratorium.

God have mercy on this doomed Country! Arrrrgggghhhh!

Karl given your Bond dislocation thesis being the end. I've been thinking about where are assets that Gov/pigmen can still grab and kick the can a little further. Here are a few thoughts:

1/ 401K/403B, several articles lately regarding supposed failure of these plans and that perhaps control of them should be taken by Gov.

2/ Gating of T Bills/ T Bonds due to the extent of this crisis. (would only happen if FCB's stop buying.)

3/Pension Funds, private and Gov. that are unencumbered.

Pretty much everything else of significance is already attached.

Phif.:

SOunds like Argentina (deja-vu) all over again.

They can't even keep the headlines straight on this.

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Business News [ more ]
Small business woes have big impact on economy
Russia and EU sign deal on gas transit via Ukraine
Detroit auto show strips out glitz in rough times
Obama advisers say plan would create 3.5M jobs
Obama advisers: Plan would create up to 4.1M jobs

Maybe the Obama advisors should get over to Yellowstone and let us know when it's going to blow. At the very least, they will probably be there trying to get it straight when it does.

Regarding the "Argentine solution" - gov stealing IRA/401K/pension funds and stuffing them all into T-bills

Does anyone know the amount of money that in those instruments, ie for how long would "taking" all the retirement wealth allow the pigmen to kick the can further down the road ? Obviously I realize that much of it may be in equities and short of crashing the equity market they can't just sell and put it all in Ts, but...

I agree with the others, the Kobayashi Maru is a great metaphor.

I wonder how McCain would have performed, if he would have really gotten out his chainsaw and hacked away at 50% of government spending....

You gotta hand it to the cadet/captain, though. At each point, she immediately took the best possible option realistically allowed by the circumstances - explaining the situation to the Klingons, then running, then returning fire and damage control, then seeing to the details of abandoning ship - never with a wringing of hands nor exlaiming "but this shouldn't happen" nor freezing up. There was no refusal to resort to escape pods because it would be unseemly for a captain to lose their ship.

If Obama does as well as this cadet, we should count ourselves fortunate. Of course, the most desirable qualities displayed were an unflinching willingness both to immediately face reality and to immediately make decisions based on it.

Tesla, just a comment on your flag there, if you watch Eagle Eye very carefully near the end when the FBI agent (Billy Bob Thornton) is landing in the helicopter at the Pentagon you can see briefly that the American flag on the side of the helicopter is backwards (mirror image). Great movie BTW.

What I suspect is happening is that this is probably polling much worse than they anticipated (as Bloomberg ran an article a few days back about how they've gone back to the Clinton way of polling to decide policy) and that they are painting this plan in the best light as possible (aka lying).

Tesla,
2.5 Trillion in 401's and approx the same in IRA's
Would not need to sell, just use them as collateral to creat new debt and let the pigmen lever it up.

"Only the Goverment can" Barak Obama

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB12313771....