I got just a new mac and I can't load the technical. A while ago i read about some upgrade, that I have on my old mac, but I can't remember which one, some body can help?

You need the current flash player.

It should work if you have that.

Excellent ticker. I expect to be 80% net worth short a month from now. The data rolling in is beyond bad - disastrous. 30-40-50% delinquencies on high 600 FICOs.

FYI - Works great on my Mac. Definitely need to update your Flash player, but other than that it's gold.

Gen,

You stated in the technical that, although unlikely, you wouldn't be surprised if yesterday was a temporary bottom and the bounce may last for a month or so. If the bounce lasts for a month or so, the Fed needs to cut in 2 weeks in order to add some hope to equities. If the Fed doesn't cut, I don't see how equities can rally. But, this logic goes against Nothing's analysis, which leads her to believe that the Fed will not cut. Do you disagree with Nothing's analysis, and think the Fed will cut 25bps?

Obviously Nothing's analysis is not bulletproof as prior to the last Fed meeting, her indicators were leaning to a hold with an upward bias, yet the Fed cut 25bps not disappointing the FI futures markets.

I would appreciate your feedback. thanks.

Thanks for a phenomenal analysis, Karl!

I believe that a Fed move in December is VERY unlikely. Not only does the EFF say no but the inflation print - and expectations in consumer confidence - say OH **** NO.

I do not believe that the Fed is driving the market higher irrespective of expectations of a cut. The Fed got its firepower out of the September and August moves, and that's over. History suggests that they become increasingly less relavent as time goes on in a cycle in either direction.

You have to respect the possibility of a "fed nasty", but at the same time I wouldn't get worked up over it. We are at a point where the macro economic picture means much more.

A bounce here - if it happens - is TECHNICAL in nature. I don't believe it is a high probability right now simply because I don't see the indicators that tell me that AT THIS POINT we have hit a short-term bottom. The often-heard claim that we are "oversold" is somethign that we keep taking off with these one-day inside days, yet we remain solidly in the "sell" zone on all the primary technical indicators.

This sort of "bounce along the bottom" behavior is common during declines.

With that said, I am wary of the possibility of sharp rallies; I believe we have turned the corner from a bull to a bear market, and the whipsaws in a bear are EXTREME in their violence. This is why the other night I said that MOST people would be well-advised to flee to treasuries and SIT, rather than trying to trade this.

I'm doing very well in this market but it is taking an insane amount of effort. Seven years ago I didn't have the time for it as I had a 3 year old - the mere task of going to play with her for an hour could have easily cost me $50,000.

What I don't understand is: how do you reconcile that with what the fed funds futures are saying:
http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/pol....]

Looks like about 87% chance of a cut.
The chance of a 75 bp cut is implied to be almost as big as no cut!

The futures do not lead the fed.

The call on the cut last time was VERY close, and a large number of the banks didn't want the discount rate cut either.