Unbelievably, the market has barely budged on this number. I would have thought that we would have dipped back down to at least 1020 on the ES futures on this.

Flat is definitely NOT good when you are losing over a half million jobs a week.

yeah, that's all well and good, but they are just going to muscle their way through this until something does happen, or they'll brake a window;

i still don't really get your point here: i don't agree that exploding all mark-to-fantasy in 1 big swoop is the only solution;

seems to me, simply logically, you can control the mark-to-market and trickle it out; why do you insist that we have to spray it all out at once?

as long as we are floating, we can absrob a few bank failures at a time, and then skate through until they are all marked fairly;

they are controlling and manipulating everything else, and they have to see the "math" as you do; maybe their solution is more manipulation until all is marked fairly

I have not read the ticker
But what part of that you guys don't get?
There are no jobs out there
Unless you want to move to dc area or work in military parameters

yep. I knew it would be bad but I never expected to not be working in July and August, normally a very busy time of the year for the construction industry. I've never seen anything like it in my life. New home building is all but dead except for the few people who have the cash to do it. Maybe a few low income houses going up here and there, but for the most part, Dead with a capital D. The company I got a lot of contract work through is down to 1 crew of 2 people maybe working half a week max. And this is in Texas! It must really be bad in the hardest hit places like Cali. and Michigan.

Pojo, who makes the call on WHICH ones must adhere to the law and which ones are allowed to ignore the law.

I don't understand your reasoning, at all.

No Consumer? Good, God! What will Americans do with their time if they can't spend it at the malls?

I guess that the government can go back to a tired urban idea and build 24/7 basketball courts all over the country for the tapped-out, no-longer-existent and totally-bored consumers.

I wonder if consumers with nothing constructive to do will become violent? (Liberal Book of Rules 101)

In response to Pojo:
Continuing to allow the scams and fraud will have (and already has had) serious consequences for the overall business environment in the US.

@ Pojo

This disconnect is not going to get digested IMO. Best solution to nausea is usually a good puke - "spray it out all at once." Be done and move on.

Delay cleansing long enough = die.

genesis wrote..

No consumer, no economic recovery. No jobs, no consumer.

Its pretty simple folks.

Absolutely.

One of our businesses is semi-discretionary, very high end. We've been doing this nearly 30 years. We and everyone in our niche are seeing YOY numbers that are horrendous. Not only what Karl said above, but the FEAR of no job in the still employed stops consumption in that class as well.

IMO sales requiring credit will stop (or, in our space, largely have stopped).

I invested in a friend's small internet business a couple years ago with the cash I pulled out of the market. he was doing very well but had to recently sell his business at a loss because he was spending more time chasing all of the customers who could not pay their bills than actually expanding the business. On top of that, he could not get any business loans anymore to buy more equipment. Sad, really. Small business is being choked out in favor of mega corporations and gov run rackets. I at least broke even with my investment, but it really sucks nonetheless.

Glad you broke even Mad. I thought that story was going to have a really bad ending.

Well it was only because he is a real upstanding guy and did not want to screw over his investors. In reality I would have likely lost about 40% if he had not been. He feels like it could have been worse but the company he sold it to offered him a job, so all is not lost yet.

let's just get a couple of things straight here for all you doomers:
if things crash horribly, a new "perfect order" will not rise up out of the ashes
lying, cheating, and corruption are here to stay: that's the way it is and will be
seriously, you guys are all cheering for the crash naively thinking that "truth" will replace it
it aint gonna happen

so who gives a **** who gets favorable treatment? as long as we can drink our beer, smoke our weed, and bang our women....

the rest is a complete SCAM: if you are in the market at all, you are an idiot AND part of the problem

KD's work has revealed that the financial industry is a ****ing joke

just walk away....

peace


out

Is there a chart anywhere (Karl, perhaps you can throw one together and write a ticker on it) that shows initial claims as a % of those who are still working?

Looking at it that way, this isn't a reduction or flat, but it is actually accelerating.

>so who gives a **** who gets favorable treatment?

I give a ****.

>as long as we can drink our beer, smoke our weed, and bang our women....

And THAT, sir, is a BIG part of the problem.

/sigh

Even in the worst part of the Great Depression the majority of people were still employed. Yet things were disrupted enough towns put billboards up on the roads entering town telling unemployed men to keep moving because they couldn't take care of their own.
What I am wondering - if any know - is at what point - at what percentage of unemployment does society not work anymore? When are there so many desperate people and not enough cops that people take what they want? When does not enough food go out on the trucks to feed everyone because they are not getting paid for it or it is getting hijacked? At what point are the few big banks left so free to **** the customer that people go to cash? And when does foreign policy dissolve because the troops are needed at home?

Quote:

so who gives a **** who gets favorable treatment? as long as we can drink our beer, smoke our weed, and bang our women....

B/C eventually you won't be allowed to do those things.

Society will survive. Right now society is all uptight about things like raising chickens, shantytown, etc. This will change.

People that are losing their jobs and housing will eventually move into large shantytowns and live rent free. People will plant gardens and survive on far less money. Ride bicycles instead of driving. Trade vegetables, etc, for dental care. Taxes too high? Good luck taxing the informal economy.

I'm not saying that this is a good thing, just that people will adapt, and this will form the basis for a recovery eventually instead of a collapse.

Sometimes I wonder if the chute we're all getting funneled into is to choose

a) working for fed.gov; or
b) accepting fed.gov handouts

Quote:

lying, cheating, and corruption are here to stay: that's the way it is and will be

Personally, I'm not OK with that. If you love your country you are honor bound to fight it and protest it.

But how can this be?

USA ToutDay's Top O' The Money Page "Sunshine Up The Skirt" Report for Thursday, August 27, 2009:

GDP better than expected; jobless claims drop

(underneath, "Recovery Watch" - LOL!)

=====
The newest syndrome, and I want to have it: "economic survivor guilt"

Quote:

let's just get a couple of things straight here for all you doomers:
if things crash horribly, a new "perfect order" will not rise up out of the ashes
lying, cheating, and corruption are here to stay: that's the way it is and will be
seriously, you guys are all cheering for the crash naively thinking that "truth" will replace it
it aint gonna happen

so who gives a **** who gets favorable treatment? as long as we can drink our beer, smoke our weed, and bang our women....

the rest is a complete SCAM: if you are in the market at all, you are an idiot AND part of the problem

KD's work has revealed that the financial industry is a ****ing joke

just walk away....

peace


out

I give a ****. When Caesar crossed the Rubicon, he gave a ****. When Napolean crossed the Bridge of Arcole, he gave a ****. When the Americans, Canadians, et al stormed the beaches of Normany, they gave a **** too.

Bagbalm: "...What I am wondering - if any know - is at what point - at what percentage of unemployment does society not work anymore? When are there so many desperate people and not enough cops that people take what they want?..."

I believe our biggest problem will be that we no longer have the mores and religious grounding of the Great Depression generation.

Today's America is used to having the Good Life, and Having It All. When some people can still put down the plastic and gain entry to the old "Take Me Away, Calgon" fantasy life at the upscale hotels and resorts because they're still making 40.00 an hour with bennies, those without are going to get angry - and they won't have the moral restraints of the past.

Plus, they were brought up with the "You Can Have It All, Now" mindset. The fraudsters in government are playing with fire.


=====
The newest syndrome, and I want to have it: "economic survivor guilt"

@Mekantor and @Karl: I agree it would be great to see these numbers as a % of remaining worker pool. I doubt it is too much worse, but it probably would at least still be on a steady decline vs flat. Also, have they ever revised the number down? Sheesh. Every week I swear it is "down" against the revised number only. I think the way they revise the number is they pick a number that we can now be down from.

@Pojo: I don't think people here want a crash. Speaking for myself, I want less of a divide between the rich, the middle class and the poor. I also want the industry I work in (finance) to have some little bit of respect. It sucks to be ashamed of your industry even though you and your employer are quite fair and honest. I want people to lose their jobs when they f up. Not get paid further bonuses with bailout money because of profits that only exist by legalized accounting fraud. And I want assets to be fairly priced so I can buy and hold good companies.

I agree the tone is getting worse here as the fraud continues unabated. That's human nature when you're shown daily to be wrong but still don't believe it. I won't believe it until unemployment really improves and loan delinquencies start declining for all major asset classes.

Ah. Can you smell it? I believe our **** sandwich is making its way to our table now.

Even the President said it. Aren't you listening? Last time that man said something about the economy he said, "Buy stocks bitches," or whatever. No? What happened then, my memory is foggy? Well he just said, "Best get the **** out the market and take shelter. Oh and don't blame me it was Benny and Turbo. Viva la Health Care, we love you Teddy. Peace."

Quiet on the set! Lemmings, ready! Queue the cliff! AND... ACTION!!