Cash conversion cycles are going to be horrific when the audited statements come out...just watch.

But the markets keep going higher...

Is there any possibility or place for bad news in the New Normal?

I wonder who is buying stuff. People who are unemployed for several months shouldn't be in a position to buy much. That is unless extended and emergency benefits cover a lot more than basic necessities.

The rubber band always stretches too far...

I prefer the razor-sharp slinky analogy.

Geez guys, let some sun in...

I'm out in high-tech factories doing automation projects every day.

Last year I almost starved to death.

My phone started ringing again in October and it's been getting better each month.

Automotive is snapping back from an overly austere summer of zero spending. Others are following -- and its too broad to be just a cash for clunkers blip.

Maybe it's only temporary but the activity and spending IS REAL. IN THE REAL ECONOMY -- where value is created.

Ababeinthewoods wrote..

Maybe it's only temporary but the activity and spending IS REAL. IN THE REAL ECONOMY -- where value is created.

The manufacturing company I work for is starting to expand again. They're getting contracts again and are retooling some factories to expand into new product lines.

While it's good for us I don't know if it really represents a growth in manufacturing as a whole, as it might just be because we are getting work that competitors who are now out of business were doing before.

The lean and mean win in recessions, even in depressions.

Economic activity doesn't STOP when the economy goes to **** kids. The weak die - and should. That's how the strong get stronger.

"Better, cheaper, faster - pick any two!"

You have to look at the entire picture, not just one or two companies. And when I do, I see continued deterioration. Yes, it's slower than it was, but at the rate we were going we were headed to zero, which clearly wasn't going to happen. Now we're just headed to hell, but not zero. :)

What really encourages me is that I am hearing about building products for export. At a macro level that is exactly what we need to be doing more of - too bad what we are doing is just a drop in the bucket compared to what is necessary.

In other words, between this ticker and the unemployment ticker, we can see the patient is still flat on his back in ICU. He's occasionally opening his eyes but he's still in critical condition.

As for anecdotal evidence, the company for which I work is seeing a bit more activity now too. But at least two contracts have been for work that was previously given to a competitor who is now out of business. That's not growth for the overall economy though it's fortunate for us.

KD is right. Economies are self-correcting... IF you let them correct. Monstrous debt and gvmt intervention can only mess things up and make the overall pain much worse. The next time you have a cancerous tumor, get that thing ripped out asap. Don't wait for it to metastasize.

@Abn0rmal
Obama talks about the need for increased exports which will help grow the economy and create jobs. Meanwhile his federal government is making it increasingly difficult for small businesses to sell products to foreign customers. The Department of State has jacked up the cost for their export licenses (small businesses pay the same annual fee as Boeing or GE) and over at Commerce the new automated system now rejects our shipments to hotbeds of terrorism like Norway.

Foreign customers just shake their heads and laugh as we commit bureaucratic suicide.

I don't see why a competent lawyer couldn't argue that an export license is really a form of an export tarrif and thus constitutionally prohibited.

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The lean and mean win in recessions, even in depressions.

Yes, but P1 goes to the subsidized.

Anything US automotive and/or union has been heavily subsidized by this administration. Typical of these people efficiency has not been addressed, and odds are they still operate at a loss.

The numbers, if real, seem like normal recessionary trends. Not incredibly alarming, but not a recovery print either. If the goods purchased are, at any level, are more cash based, then it is a good decline. If it is still more leveraged floating for goods in the market, then, you know, not good. Can't see thru the forest for too many debt trees are in the way.

Quote:

I don't see why a competent lawyer couldn't argue that an export license is really a form of an export tarrif and thus constitutionally prohibited.

Small businesses don't argue with the federal government and survive to tell about it. You either pay Ceasar and get permission to sell your stuff overseas, or you sit down and STFU.

Jjm wrote..

Small businesses don't argue with the federal government and survive to tell about it

I didn't mean my comment as an attack - I was thinking about the sad state of our government with respect to constitutional limits to federal powers.

Edit: Does this article describe the same agency you are talking about? http://learnexportcompliance.com/news/20....

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I didn't mean my comment as an attack

No problem, I didn't take it that way, I just saw the lawyer comment as a bit naive. Lawyers that know their way around DC bill at upwards of $2k/hr., not the kind of people most small businesses have on retainer.

I certainly participated in the farm equipment purchases...

Jjm,

"Small businesses don't argue with the federal government and survive to tell about it. You either pay Ceasar and get permission to sell your stuff overseas, or you sit down and STFU."

Or you have states secede (see Civil War)