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Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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What is the purpose of this post? Simple; testing a hypothesis with data.

Presumption: There are ~10 Covid19 "infections" for every reported "case." This is the CDC's presumption, not mine, but it appears to be reasonably accurate.

Hypothesis: Given the data from Singapore, as published in NATURE in the form of a peer-reviewed scientific paper, pre-existing resistance to Covid19 which could not be traced to SARS, MERS or previous Covid19 infection is about 50%. This is a profound observation that explains fully Diamond Princess, a cruise ship that was a closed experimental virus system for nearly a month and yet produced only 17% infection rates. That is impossible for a 100% susceptible population -- but it fits nicely if 50% is already partially or entirely immune and the virus has an R0 of somewhere between 2.5 and 3.0, as in that case herd suppresion occurs at about 66%. This matches exactly with what was observed.

In addition this means that each state, city or region of a state should reach herd suppression irrespective of their mitigation measures somewhere around a 2% infected rate counted by "cases." If the hypothesis is correct no state should be materially over that percentage without running into suppression of the virus and its transmission by natural forces.

I am not listing all 50 states here. Instead, I will list some that have apparently reached suppression with their percentage of population in "positives" on the day I added them, plus their graph. Then I will list should reach "soon" states. As time goes on I will move states from "should" to VALIDATED or NOT-VALIDATED status depending on what happens.

Note that a 2% prevalence sounds really good but the fact is that Sweden, which did not lock down, appears to have reached suppression at 0.7%, more or less, in cases. This strongly implies, but does not prove, that lockdowns in fact may add as much as 10% OR A CLEAN DOUBLE to the actual suppression rate required. Why would this be true? Because lockdowns force household units inside and an infection in one is thus more-likely to propagate.

Note that if this is correct then we're flat-out insane to do anything other than let the infection go and work to treat the victims, plus controlling health care transmission so as to prevent the health care system from vectoring the victims toward those most-easily killed. We have utterly FAILED to do that thus far. It also means that vaccines are and will be worthless. Why would you vaccinate for a disease that has a 2% maximum "serious enough to to get tested" case rate and one that, of that 2%, kills less than 1 in 10 of those? That's where we are RIGHT NOW folks. Never mind that there is evidence -- not yet proof, but evidence -- that the flu vaccine may have potentiated some of those deaths by enhancing the lethality of a Covid19 infection.

Further, for those states that CAN have an exponential spike note that it is limited to 2% of their population less that already documented as infected, with the peak being at 1.5%. So if you have, for example, a current 1% confirmed infected rate the peak should come right at or near 1.5%, and limit out around 2% at which point you have residual infections that will continue no matter what you do. In addition deaths should peak about 2 weeks after you reach that 1.5% rate and then fall toward irrelevance. What this means is that "flattening the curve" isn't really an intelligent decision because there is no risk of a 10 or 100x explosion in the number of infected people requiring treatment. There is no evidence anywhere in the world of such an event happening.

Even Italy, with 35,000 dead nearly all elderly people, has only had 0.4% of their population test positive! Think about that one folks -- for those who claim this virus can infect "everyone" Italy has tallied up 244,000 infections out of a population of 60 million citizens.

You're flat-out insane to believe there is no pre-existing resistance and that it can rip through and destroy entire nations. There is ZERO data to suggest that is true -- not in Italy, not in the UK, not here, not anywhere. The key is to NOT VECTOR THE INFECTION into vulnerable populations. Singapore has been wildly successful in doing that. The rest of us, not so much -- and that's where our wrath belongs.

So with that, here we are:

States that appear to CONFIRM the hypothesis:

NY: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/new....
Suppression reached: April 25th
Cases then: 282,143 / 14.51%
Date of flatline: June 16th
Cases then: 384,575 / 19.77%
Exponential spike possible: NO

NJ: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/new....
Suppression reached: April 26th
Cases then: 109,038 / 12.28%
Date of flatline: June 23rd
Cases then: 169,734 / 19.10%
Exponential spike possible: NO

MA: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/mas....
Suppression reached: May 3rd
Cases then: 68,087 / 9.88%
Date of flatine: June 25th
Cases then: 107,837 / 15.64%
Exponential spike possible: NO

(Yes, there are more, but this should show you what to look for)


Entering or In Suppression NOW

AZ: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/ari....
Suppression reached: July 7th
Cases then: 105,094 / 14.44%
Date of flatline: NOT YET
Cases 7/19: 143,624 / 19.73%
Exponential spike possible: NO

TX: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/tex....
Suppression reached: July 21, PENDING CONFIRM
Cases 7/19: 325,030 / 11.21%
Cases 7/21: 341,739 / 11.78% (!!)
Exponential spike possible: UNLIKELY (<15%)

FL: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/flo....
Suppression reached: JULY 17 PENDING CONFIRM
Cases 7/19: 350,047 / 16.3%
Exponential spike possible: EXTREMELY UNLIKELY; SUPPRESSION LIKELY ACHIEVED.

SC: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/sou....
Suppression reached: JULY 17, PENDING CONFIRM
Cases 7/23: 76,606 / 14.88%
Exponential spike possible: VERY UNLIKELY
Added 7/23


Nearing Suppression

GA: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/geo....
Suppression reached: APPROACHING
Cases 7/19: 143,123 / 13.48%
Exponential spike possible: UNLIKELY; SUPPRESSION WITHIN TWO WEEKS
Note 7/27: 170,843 / 16.09%, MAY HAVE HIT SUPPRESSION 7/24

IL: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/ill....
Suppression reached: No
Cases 7/19: 162,750 12.85%
Exponential spike possible: MODERATELY UNLIKELY; suppression in ~3 weeks from 7/19

TN: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/ten....
Suppression reached: No
Cases 7/19: 78,115 / 11.44%
Exponential spike possible: MODERATE RISK; SUPPRESSION WITHIN FOUR WEEKS FROM 7/19


States NOT nearing suppression yet

NC: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/nor....
Suppression reached: NO
Cases 7/19: 99,778 / 9.51%
Exponential spike possible: YES, current presumed margin exceeds 5%

CA: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/cal....
Suppression reached: NO
Cases 7/19: 384,692 / 9.74%
Exponential spike possible: YES, current presumed margin exceeds 5%

VA: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/vir....
Suppression reached: NO
Cases 7/19: 77,430 / 9.07%
Exponential spike possible: YES, current presumed margin exceeds 5%

AR: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/ark....
Suppression reached: NO
Cases 7/19: 32533 / 10.78%
Exponential spike possible: MODERATE RISK, ~4% presumed margin.

If you have a state you'd like me to add and track please comment below.


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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me

Jwm_in_sb
Posts: 2117
Incept: 2009-04-16

California Desert
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VA and IL?
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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@Jwm_in_sb - Added

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Swiftly
Posts: 52
Incept: 2007-10-16

NY, USA
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SD - Did not shutdown, therefore good comparison
Ckaminski
Posts: 5830
Incept: 2011-04-08

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New england? CT is still being remarkably stupid, and ME is allowing NYers to visit, but not M*******s?

NH was pretty sane up north when i visited over memorial day and the 4th holidays - almost no maskers anywhere. But those are the live free and die NH folk, not the massplants.

RI has gone full retard again. VT appears to have their **** together.
Little_eddie
Posts: 1803
Incept: 2009-04-30

Delaware
Online
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Delaware looks to be around 13%,
13,519 cases out of a pop of 995,764

PA 7.9%?
DC 15%


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It's Collapse, get use to it, everything else is just 'them' trying to hide it from you.

Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that. - George Carlin
Jfms99
Posts: 407
Incept: 2009-10-06

Maumelle, Ar
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Arkansas
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Ok

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Mtdm
Posts: 851
Incept: 2009-07-23

NH
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Another vote for NH... and to ckaminskis comment it has been a mixed bag around here - agree the general population tends on the sane side the more north you get, but plenty of businesses and especially restaurants are still going well above and beyond the already asinine restrictions, to the point where Ive already identified a bunch of places deserving of my personal boycott henceforth.
Racer
Posts: 395
Incept: 2009-09-04

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It looks like Oregon is in this for the long haul. We currently have 14,847 https://covidtracking.com/data/state/ore.... cases and a population of 4.45E6 (estimated) which puts us about 3.3%. Our current R(t) is near 1 https://rt.live/ and we have about 345 (7 day rolling average)new cases per day currently. Perhaps another 5-6 months?? We should give appropriate thanks to our governor queen kate.

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"The more you buy, the more you save." Consumer's motto.
"Spend nothing, save everything, starve the beast." My motto.

Reason: correct bad link
Djloche
Posts: 4424
Incept: 2008-07-07

Vancouver, WA
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I am curious about both WA and OR Portland and Seattle had early spread while testing was limited or not available; in previous antibodies testing in the homeless shelters in both places, a super majority of everyone had antibodies and no symptoms.
Additionally outside the cities its mostly white rural and low density populations that will really only see major outbreaks in cases that defy that (like the meatpacking or fruitpacking plants)

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"The Constitution is the IDE. The 2nd Amendment is the debugger."
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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NH is an oddball -- very low numbers, to the point that I wonder if there's a monster under the bed.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Glassonion
Posts: 36
Incept: 2008-12-21

New Hampshire
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Maybe so in NH, but I hope not. Of note, our percentage of nursing home deaths out of total deaths is 80% or so. I live in Durham and the locals are freaking out about the students returning for in person instruction in a month. UNH brings a total of 16,000 extra people when in full swing.

Lots of students are back in their off campus apartments already. My observation is that they don't give a bleep about small gatherings, social distancing or face masks. (although most businesses are kicking you out without one at this point) Should be entertaining!
Mannfm11
Posts: 6555
Incept: 2009-02-28

DFW, Tx
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Im looking at the big Texas counties. Houston is in the worst shape. Dallas is nearing the end to the chain. Hospitals in North Texas in good shape. The south coast is hot, but I suspect Corpus report is phony with around 40% positive. Elsewise, herd is already there.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsd....

https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cou....

These county populations are handy. Texas appears to have peaked in the state data. Dallas County is now at 1.5%. Harris is a little over 1.1%. The suburbs are behind. Texas is pretty spread out. The infection positive rate peaked on Friday and taken a pretty significant dive. Maybe we have it hard later in the suburbs, maybe not.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Hapablap21
Posts: 797
Incept: 2007-08-21

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Counter example (please demonstrate why I'm wrong because this has confused me for a while):

Louisiana appears to be *well past* the 17% threshold, but cases continue to expand.
Little_eddie
Posts: 1803
Incept: 2009-04-30

Delaware
Online
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FIRST Line after the title
Quote:
Presumption: There are ~10 Covid19 "infections" for every reported "case." This is the CDC's presumption, not mine, but it appears to be reasonably accurate.


So as long as you test will will sooner or later find the other 10

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It's Collapse, get use to it, everything else is just 'them' trying to hide it from you.

Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that. - George Carlin
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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@Hapablap21 - 20.41% at present, should be peaking and declining right now. And they're not.

Their state dashboard has some interesting statistics. And some of them back up something that I've suspected but didn't have data to back up, which is that there's a very nasty bias in who gets this thing and who gets ****ed by it too. This could potentially explain not only LA but also Sweden, which reached obvious suppression at roughly HALF where NY and NJ did -- and it's not arguable that Sweden did reach it either, especially at THIS point in time. There were plenty of people who didn't buy it a month or two ago; now it's indisputable.

I'm gonna dig into this one some and I don't think I'm going to like what I find. It might well result in a "bias" being added to the suppression number up or down, which, if it turns out to fit, well... that's going to make some people very, very unhappy.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Hapablap21
Posts: 797
Incept: 2007-08-21

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I'll be interested to see what you find.

My working theory has been that, due to Mardi Gras, New Orleans got it hard and fast in March/April (it was an absolute ****show there) which likely put that area past the 17% threshold but the rest of the state remained below it. Now the rest of the state is catching up, but due to the fraction of the state population in and around New Orleans, the numbers appear wonky statewide.

It sounds like you have another theory though, which is likely more sound and data-backed than my assumptions and guesses.
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Yeah but I really don't like it. Then again it ain't about what I like, it's about what the data IS.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Mannfm11
Posts: 6555
Incept: 2009-02-28

DFW, Tx
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Herd immunity doesn't mean it stops. From my recall, New Orleans, Baton Rouge and Shreveport were the hotspots. Mardi Gras would have been a bomb. Shreveport is next to Bossier city, which is a big casino town and Baton Rouge, the next stop up the road from New Orleans. I have a few LA Black tenants. They are big family people.

If you look at the data, there was a huge ramp in testing starting June 21. Testing got as high as 40.26 per 10,000 on July 1. That would be 10% of the population in 25 days, which is almost the per capita sum for the entire time for Texas. If they are contact tracing, they may be finding a high percentage of cases. If they are running down people, there may be only 4 or 5 cases instead of 10. NY, on the other hand, was finding around 500 out of 40,000 tests. Cuomo is probably testing dying people to add to his politically motivated death count.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Ckaminski
Posts: 5830
Incept: 2011-04-08

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Maybe NH isnt cooking the books like everyone else.
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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The bend continues.....

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Mannfm11
Posts: 6555
Incept: 2009-02-28

DFW, Tx
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They have now put a trend curve on the Texas dashboard. Looking good

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsd....

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Texas has flattened on the 7-day MA. Ditto on hospitalizations. Deaths lag of course.

Arizona is heading down HARD. Cases are now down by 25% (!!) on the 7 day MA from the peak. Hospitalizations have also rolled over. Odds are increasing I called that one bang-on pretty-much right on the corner.

Florida and Georgia may have peaked on *cases* but hospitalization has not yet rolled over. If the peak is real then HX should roll before the end of the weekend. We'll see.

No other changes in the data from today that I'm watching most-closely.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Arizona continuing to collapse; confidence is rising a LOT that they're done.

Florida and Georgia continue to improve.
Texas remains questionable.

Added SC -- Appears they may be rolling over, and is currently at presumed 14.88% presumed. That's in the lane.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
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