The Market Ticker
Rss Icon RSS available
"The Constitution is hereby repealed by diktat of nine" - Roberts, 05-29-2020
You are not signed on; if you are a visitor please register for a free account!
Posting in this area at this time is restricted; see the FAQ.
The Market Ticker Read Message in MaskHoles
User: Not logged on
Top Forum Top Login FAQ Register Clear Cookie
Showing Page 2 of 5  First12345Last
User Info Current State On Deck List in forum [MaskHoles]
Mannfm11
Posts: 6426
Incept: 2009-02-28

DFW, Tx
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The Texas positive rate is now at a 17 day low and headed lower. The curve is turning down. I don't think the hospital data is up to date, as there are some strange numbers. I would guess the number of tests is finding an increasing number of cases that wouldn't be found earlier, but I can say the Dallas County number of infections is pretty stable. Harris keeps rising. I suspect most cases are in the valley or near the border.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsd....

----------
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Steviepointer
Posts: 1787
Incept: 2007-07-30

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
WI?
Here is my calc. Can you confirm? Thoughts?

7/23
Cases then: 49,669 / 8.4%
Exponential spike possibly: In it now
Tickerguy
Posts: 166364
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Yeah WI isn't in the "interesting" list; they definitely don't have enough prevalence to get suppression.

----------
If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Tickerguy
Posts: 166364
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Update 7/24:

Covid19 tracking project SCREEEEAMING like REEing Karen. What does my hypothesis test say?

SC: Rolling over. Still.

LA: Ehhhhh..... don't like it. Undetermined.

GA: Flat. Not EXPECTED to be rolling. Yet.

AZ: In the ditch. It's over.

FL: Trend continues; HX flattening. Looks like the hypothesis is going to verify, but will not call this one yet (by next weekend, on the other hand...)

TX: Have a nice day. Flattening. Looks like it's there, but we'll see next week. By then it'll be irrefutable if it's right.

IL: Told 'ya so.

TN: Flattening. Not there yet, but next week will be important.

Other than LA (which I have explained is a confounder, and I think I know why), all proceeding as expected. NOT ONE outlier. Zero.

I hate being right sometimes. Other times, I offer a toast.

Cheers.

----------
If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Krzelune
Posts: 8213
Incept: 2007-10-08

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Does Louisiana's data include demographics? Arizona data shows most counties have more females than males infected. It also shows mostly Hispanics but they have like 50% unknow, which makes that data seem worthless to me.
Tickerguy
Posts: 166364
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
@Krzelune - Arizona has a TERRIBLE problem with reservations where there is both high density housing and **** sanitation (literally.) If there's a state that is expected to blow thesis, that's the one. It didn't.

LA is a problem, but as I said, I think I know what's causing it. It's WILDLY disparate between Parishes on a per-100,000 resident basis (so the density of people isn't the reason per-se.) The answer is likely very, very ugly and I'm not going to put it out there until I back it up with hard data, which so far IS there, but I can't defend it on a statistical basis.

It's really, seriously explosive if it's right though, and like I said, I'm just not comfortable putting a stake in the ground right now on it.

You want the really bad news?

If I'm right it also explains New Hampshire.

And it's nuclear.

ESPECIALLY if we prove that this virus was engineered.

----------
If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me

Steviepointer
Posts: 1787
Incept: 2007-07-30

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I'm missing this leap in logic. Before my first coffee this morning, I was able to see it, now I can't.

How does 17% infection rate give us heard immunity? Shouldn't it be 33%?

How did I get 33%?
50% of the population is immune.
So, we need 66% of the other possible 50% (that can be infected), which results in 33% of the overall population.

What am I missing?

Tickerguy
Posts: 166364
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
It's total population, not the slice of the remainder.

If 50% has natural resistance then the "fold over point" is at ~16%. If there are 10x asymptomatic infections (who never get tested) for every one who does, then the positive number that reaches suppression is ~1.6%.

Note that SMALL errors in the inherent resistance translate into pretty big changes. If a given sub-population (e.g. county) has only 45% inherent resistance then the suppression rate is 21%, not 16%, and thus it's 2.1% rather than 1.6%. If you test people wildly without symptoms and thus catch a material number of asymptomatic infections then you skew things even more.

----------
If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Hapablap21
Posts: 797
Incept: 2007-08-21

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I can't even begin to imagine what louisiana and new Hampshire have in common.

Can't wait for this one.
Tickerguy
Posts: 166364
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Yeah, well, if this virus proves to be engineered then this could easily start a war.

A real one.

----------
If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Hapablap21
Posts: 797
Incept: 2007-08-21

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
What's the new Hampshire anomaly?

ETA: also will there be another data point about 10-14 days from this weekend?

Krzelune
Posts: 8213
Incept: 2007-10-08

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I think the point is LA and NH Hampshire have something that is NOT in common.

Tickerguy
Posts: 166364
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Oh God.

Oh mother of God.

Oh boy....

----------
If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me

Asimov
Posts: 118013
Incept: 2007-08-26

East Tennessee
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
NH = mainly white, LA = mainly black.

It's not going to be pretty.

----------
It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Steviepointer
Posts: 1787
Incept: 2007-07-30

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I'm not seeing how 16% of 50% is 66%

Talk to me like I'm a golden retriever.
Asimov
Posts: 118013
Incept: 2007-08-26

East Tennessee
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Stevie: If 1/2 are already immune from prior exposure, then you add in 16% more who have it and get over it, you get 66%

----------
It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.

Steviepointer
Posts: 1787
Incept: 2007-07-30

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
ahh..

50%(immune)+16%(infections)=66%

see...that wasn't so hard. :-)

Racer
Posts: 395
Incept: 2009-09-04

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Oregon Update: Cases (25 Jul) 16,104 which yields an infection rate of 3.6%. Data from https://covidtracking.com/data/state/ore.... Our current R(t) is 0.91 (range 0.72-1.10) https://rt.live/ and our 7 day rolling average new cases is 329 (25 Jul). Please note that the population for 2020 is an estimate and varies from source to source from 4.3E6 to 4.45E6. If the lower estimate is used the infection rate would be 3.8%. Still not very exciting.

Not a particularly interesting state for Covid19 except to understand why our rate is so low compared to other states.

On another note: 54+ days of riots have not moved the data much at all. We now have a mask "order" for everyone over 5 years of age indoors plus outdoors when you can not physically distance. That may change our situation.


----------
"The more you buy, the more you save." Consumer's motto.
"Spend nothing, save everything, starve the beast." My motto.

Reason: bad link
Bkmiller
Posts: 349
Incept: 2008-08-30

PA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Karl,

What's your take on PA? https://covidtracking.com/data/state/pen....

Just more testing showing more positives?

Thanks.
Tickerguy
Posts: 166364
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Pennsylvania is far enough away from suppression that it can quite-easily spike.

I show ~8.25% imputed infection rate, which is WAY below the typical ~15% required. It is well within the realm of possibility that it blows up in their face they basically double the current case count in a relatively short period of time.

----------
If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Beignet
Posts: 2012
Incept: 2008-05-16

O-Town
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Missouri?

----------

Tickerguy
Posts: 166364
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Not even close to being in the game as far as suppression.

----------
If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Bkmiller
Posts: 349
Incept: 2008-08-30

PA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Thanks, Karl. The falling deaths and not-really-rising hospitalizations just didn't jive for me with the ever-rising testing and case count. Makes sense now.

The Guv here instituted new masking and bar/restaurant rules this past week. Maybe that's why. (But probably not.)

In any case, the PA Guv is still being an *******, IMO.
Tickerguy
Posts: 166364
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
You'll get your turn. Read what I just posted in this are today.

----------
If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Weezie
Posts: 7271
Incept: 2008-05-19
A True American Patriot!
Caution: Congress at Work
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Stevie- about 50% may already be resistant due to other past coronavirus infections. 16% is the estimated seropositive rate (depends on area). Add together to get 66%, or herd immunity.

----------
jihad pressure cooker tea party guns Constitution Bill of Rights play doh squiggly line prepper home garden cluster****
Top Forum Top Login FAQ Register Clear Cookie
Showing Page 2 of 5  First12345Last