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Snowmizuh
Posts: 1866
Incept: 2009-03-18

Alabama
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AL
Population: 4,903,185
Suppression Reached: approaching
Cases on 7/20: 68,891 / 14.05%
Cases on 7/25: 78,130 / 15.93%
Date of Flatline: not yet
Exponential Spike Possible: unlikely; suppression within 3 weeks

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/ala....

Snowmizuh
Posts: 1866
Incept: 2009-03-18

Alabama
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If you look at county-level cases per 100k data for Alabama, and compare with county racial demographics, you will find a similar pattern to LA vs. NH.

Look for county table in the following URL; sort be the cases per 100k population column.
https://www.alreporter.com/mapping-coron....

I'll go ahead and say it: I think the odds are high this was bio-Pearl Harbor that originated from the CCP's BSL-4 Wuhan lab.
Tickerguy
Posts: 166364
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Note that reaching suppression DOES NOT mean you won't see any more cases.

What it means is that geometric multiplication is no longer possible in an unconstrained population. Now if you shove 1,000 susceptible people into a building with someone hacking their head off, yes, those people can still all get it, and will.

But the random motion of people as they go about their daily lives will, on average, NOT bring one more person who can get AND SPREAD IT into contact with someone who has it.

If you're inherently resistant that doesn't mean you can't test positive on a RT-PCR test. What it means is that if exposed your viral load is insufficient to generate clinical disease or to be an efficient means of further spread from you to someone else.

In other words suppression means that case rates will quite-quickly decline. Basic logic in an SEIR model shows that cases will have a nice neat curve up and down of the same shape on both sides. This does not happen. The reason it does not happen is that a SEIR model presumes that everyone is a brownian particle, basically, which is not the case.

So what happens in the real world is that both the spike and the collapse on the other side have dislocations in them, and when you get to the "flat-line" there are still cases. SEIR models predict that at <1.0 the virus extinguishes. This does not happen because we're not brownian-motion particles; we're leaky tribes, and your "tribe" may have plenty of susceptible people in it, so if an index case gets into it they can all get it at once, and as a result there are still cases.

But there is no longer a geometric "pile on" possible because most of those tribe incidents go no further; nobody who "leaks" a case will give it to another group of susceptibles, and so that particular little bunch is a one-off.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Tickerguy
Posts: 166364
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Notable updates 7/26:

TX: Collapsing. This week will be irrefutable.

FL: Looking pretty good. Again, this week will be very important but it appears they've reached suppression. Oh the screaming shall commence if so....

AZ: Nothing to suggest they're not on the downside.

GA: First hints of flattening. A bit early, wouldn't be surprised to see it roll but slowly until they get 20-30k more cases, which at this rate will take a couple of weeks.

SC: Collapsing on new cases, flattening on HX. 15.77%, so in the zone where it rolls as with AZ and elsewhere.

LA: Looks like two days reports in one (none yesterday), if so it looks like THEY are rolling over -- a bit late but not out of the range.

Haven't found the invalidating state yet.... this is getting rather amusing.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Tickerguy
Posts: 166364
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Notable updates 7/27:

TX: smiley -- they "found" 700 deaths today. What did they do -- have a building collapse in the hurricane and call all the people killed "Covid"?

FL: Continuing the pattern.

SC: Gee, should I keep saying the same thing over and over? smiley

This is going to get amusing.


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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Captainkidd
Posts: 1952
Incept: 2010-05-25

Houston, Texas
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I saw those 'Found' deaths in Texas.
Would like to see the DC's and get the dates of when those souls left this mortal plane....

They don't even try to keep it from sounding like bull**** anymore.

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A lawyer with a briefcase can steal more than a thousand men with guns. --Mario Puzo

It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning. -- Henry Ford
Tickerguy
Posts: 166364
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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They had a collapsed death curve nationally that would have driven the actual number and 7DMA down, so they spiked the ball in TX. The problem with doing that is of course that you can only die once. Rather than slot them back into where they actually died they did this. It was so blatant and "in your face" that it make you spit your coffee, but I really don't care because at the end of the year it's all going to net out.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Captainkidd
Posts: 1952
Incept: 2010-05-25

Houston, Texas
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That's the problem they're about to face pretty soon....
Just not enough bodies to fill the spreadsheets.

And I'm still hearing from the Karens here about "Full Morgues" "Refrigerator Trucks for Bodies" "ICUs Overflowing"

I'm developing a condition that's a cross between @Jack_crabbe and @Smacktle...

I hate all of them and I want to punch them in the face.

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A lawyer with a briefcase can steal more than a thousand men with guns. --Mario Puzo

It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning. -- Henry Ford
Uwe
Posts: 8823
Incept: 2009-01-03
A True American Patriot!
USA
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KD wrote..
Pennsylvania is far enough away from suppression that it can quite-easily spike.
I show ~8.25% imputed infection rate, which is WAY below the typical ~15% required.

States are not homogeneous.

Using a 10x multiplier to get imputed infections from reported case counts (from the Johns Hopkins map):

Philadelphia County is at 19.87%
Montgomery County (adjacent to Philly): 11.51%
A very rural county (Potter): 1.27%

Florida is even more extreme:
Miami-Dade County: 40.74% (!) (2.7M population, 110,352 cases)
Flagler County (where I am right now): 7.29%

New York City: 26.36%.

It seems to me that either the 10x multiplier cannot be applied everywhere, or (some mainly) urban populations have considerably less than 50% natural resistance..?

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"Corona Virus will come and go, but government will NEVER forget how easy it was to take control of everyone's life; to control every sporting event, classroom, restaurant table, church pew, and even whether you are allowed to leave your house.
Tickerguy
Posts: 166364
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Yep.

The real problem Uwe is how they're doing "testing"; innate resistance does not mean you won't pop positive on an Rt-PCR. It DOES, however, mean your odds of a clinical case are nearly zero.

So if you have wildly disparate testing regimes you get **** numbers. It's especially a problem if your labs are returning ****. I ain't buying 40% prevalence anywhere that's been basically shut down, and Dade has been since this started.

Across an entire state this tends to level out quite a bit.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me

Steelpiston71
Posts: 6075
Incept: 2007-09-05

Michigan
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I think the Miami Marlins may have found out about this little testing quirk (14 players!, sure), lol

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"We have resolution authority under Frank/Dodd... How about we USE IT?" Karl Denninger, 10/07/10 on the Dylan Ratigan Show, MSNBC.
Snowmizuh
Posts: 1866
Incept: 2009-03-18

Alabama
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Karl, could you run your analysis for Sweden, Spain, Italy, and Germany, please?

Sweden appears way below the saturation point. Spain is spiking again. Germany looks like it is starting an upward trend again as well.

Here's mine:

Spain
Population: 47,431,256
Suppression Reached: nope
Cases on 7/20: 264,836/ 5.58%
Cases on 7/28: 280,610/ 5.92%
Date of Flatline: ?
Exponential Spike Possible: very possible

Italy
Population: 60,317,116
Suppression Reached: nope
Cases on 7/20: 244,434/ 4.05%
Cases on 7/28: 246,286/ 4.08%
Date of Flatline: ?
Exponential Spike Possible :very possible

Sweden
Population: 10,040,995
Suppression Reached: nope
Cases on 7/20: 77,281/ 7.70%
Cases on 7/28: 79,494/ 7.92%
Date of Flatline: ?
Exponential Spike Possible: ?

I was surprised that Sweden was below 10%. I figured they were at or close to suppression level (15-20%).
Zappafan
Posts: 4139
Incept: 2007-11-30

Atlanta
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Really basic question, I am almost embarrassed to ask:

How are most states defining a "case?" I would hope it is a positive test and a patient who presents with symptoms.

If they're counting all positive test results including asymptomatic ones, that is lame.

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"I rule on land, air and sea, pass judgment on humanity
Winds blow from the bowels of hell
Will we give warning, only time will tell
Satan rears his ugly head, to spit into the wind": Megadeth
Goforbroke
Posts: 8912
Incept: 2007-11-30
A True American Patriot!
The tadpole is gone due to CV-19. I am hunkering down.
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^^ Does it really matter?

They're making the numbers up as they go along. They could give any number for any of the measures and wouldn't be held accountable for backing it up.

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It is death which gives meaning to life.
Tickerguy
Posts: 166364
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Snow: test requirements matter. A lot.

More later I'm enjoying beer.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Traumaboyy
Posts: 948
Incept: 2011-05-20

Northwest Florida
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Fixin to get a Hooter Brown from Oyster City Brewhouse.....Cheers!!
Traumaboyy
Posts: 948
Incept: 2011-05-20

Northwest Florida
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Just saw that Vox quoted one of your posts from March. Titled it The Medical Vector. This may be the only place on Earth we can find truth about this ****.
Goforbroke
Posts: 8912
Incept: 2007-11-30
A True American Patriot!
The tadpole is gone due to CV-19. I am hunkering down.
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https://www.wvlt.tv/2020/07/29/kchd-says....
Quote:
KNOXVILLE, Tenn. (WVLT) - During a Wednesday press conference, Dr. Martha Buchanan with the Knox County Health Department addressed the publics concerns regarding false-positive COVID-19 test results.

Buchanan said false-positive test results are counted as positive because there is no way to determine which test was correct. This means if a person takes two tests and one is negative and one is positive, the department counts it as positive.
Swell. Just swell.

I'm tired of all of this crap. Talked with long-time very good friend today and we got into an argument. "With the number of cases increasing, we have to take every precaution." "But you can't look at the cases. If you're testing 10 times the number of people you were testing a month ago, you're obviously going to get more positives. You have to look at the mortality rate." "Mortality rate means nothing. The long term affect of this thing is horrible, simply horrible." "Well, you can wear your face diaper and social distance and totally ruin everyone's lives to save your 96-year-old mother, but if I need to live the rest of my life in fear of this thing, then I'm out of here."

This thing is tearing families, lives, and long-term friendships apart to an extreme I never imagined would be possible.

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It is death which gives meaning to life.

Flyanddive
Posts: 5012
Incept: 2008-10-10

Detroit
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Quote:
It's really, seriously explosive if it's right though, and like I said, I'm just not comfortable putting a stake in the ground right now on it.
Are you referring to the SNPs?

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"I've seen people go into real poverty trying to pretend to be rich."
Hapablap21
Posts: 797
Incept: 2007-08-21

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Louisiana looks like it's peaked.

I'd still like to know what your theory was though :)
Mannfm11
Posts: 6426
Incept: 2009-02-28

DFW, Tx
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Karl. I look at the Texas dashboard almost every day. Instead of deaths happening on a day, it is deaths reported, some of which may have happened weeks ago. Of course, the institutions and politically motivated medical examiners will pad the data

Anyhow, this is what I have observed. Dallas and Harris Counties were running neck and neck with around 600 deaths. Suddenly Dallas is still around 600 and Harris is 1100. I recall a slight reduction in Dallas and a big leap in Harris deaths. There was also a reduction in Hidalgo county. Mainly Dallas and Harris were running neck and neck and in 1 day, that changed.

Dallas County has 2.6 million and 48K cases and Harris, 4.7 million and 67K cases. By the model, Dallas is close to herd and Harris has a ways to go. Those 2 metros are close to 50% of Texas population. I use these figures to tell people, this nonsense is about done

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Tickerguy
Posts: 166364
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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@Mannfm11 - They reported a whole ****-ton of previous deaths, but no dates on when and didn't back-fill the data. For all I know those people died in April.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Djloche
Posts: 4358
Incept: 2008-07-07

Vancouver, WA
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Same story in Florida about reporting
Inline

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"The Constitution is the IDE. The 2nd Amendment is the debugger."
Tickerguy
Posts: 166364
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Yeah but see in the end all-cause is all that matters, and when you do this stacking thing you blow your wad of cum at the ceiling and then it's used up.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Tickerguy
Posts: 166364
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Ok, so 7/30 update...

LA looks like they're done. The virus shot its wad and is over.

TN, not quite. Currently at imputed 15%. In the zone where it can roll, but it doesn't have to as yet. It does look toppy though.

TX appears finished. They played the late report game with the deaths and shot their wad at the ceiling; the actual rate is WAY down. There' getting a few spurts likely in a couple of metros still, but I'll take the bet they've rolled this week.

FL same deal. HX has definitely rolled and so have cases; 2 week trend on that one. They also played the late report game and shot the ceiling today. Nice try scaring people, *******s. The data is what it is; again, 2+ weeks past peak at this point.

AZ tried the same late death report but they've rolled so hard that one's in the bag; it's a 30 day trend now.

GA is right on the edge. I'd take an even-money bet they hit the top. 17% imputed. You'll be paying me if you take the other side. smiley

SC looks like the same deal. 17% imputed. Looks like GA.


So far NO disproved hypothesis examples I can find......

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
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