The Market Ticker
Rss Icon RSS available
"Since the Constitution is now ignored the age-old practice of corruption of blood has been reinstated" - Tickerguy
You are not signed on; if you are a visitor please register for a free account!
Posting in this area at this time is restricted; see the FAQ.
The Market Ticker Read Message in MaskHoles
User: Not logged on
Top Forum Top Login FAQ Register Clear Cookie
Showing Page 1 of 3  First123Last
User Info Scientific Evidence: Mask Order INCREASES Transmission in forum [MaskHoles]
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List Ignore this thread
Dear Sirs;

The data is, at this point, quite clear.

Your County mask mandate came into effect on 10 July. It is now 10 days, or 2 viral "cycles", later.

No effects would be visible for at least three and likely five (median time to symptoms from infection) days post mandate. Therefore, any trend changes prior to the 15th are not from the mandate; they physically cannot be.

The 7 day rolling moving average of case numbers was trending down right up until the 15th. Literally on the 15th, the first day that an effect would be expected to be seen, it reversed. It is now running 25% higher than the day of the mandate imposition itself.

This by itself is quite troubling. While the confidence bands I calculate are too wide to make a definitive statement it certainly appears that the mask mandate increased transmission of the virus rather than suppressing it.

Further, the gap between recovering and active cases, which demonstrably showed no reason for the mandate in the first place -- active cases were contracting -- has narrowed. This is bad and again, the date of the turn occurred exactly on the 15th.

No other restrictions or changes were made in terms of what businesses could be open or not, or under what terms, on the 10th. You thus cannot point to confounding factors. Further, you can't point to the 4th of July weekend either, as those effects would be visible on the 9th, or effective on the day the mandate went into effect. Yet into the 4th of July weekend and forward for another week the case delta rate continued to trend downward.

The data and trends in it are clear: The mask mandate was worse than worthless; it appears to be causing HARM.

Fortunately -- at least to this point -- we are still getting more recoveries than active cases. If that changes then you've gone from making people mildly sick to make them very sick and perhaps even killing them with your mandate.

That's what the science tells us.

It's not surprising; all mitigations have both benefits and costs. If the benefits are zero, which the physics and 14 Random Controlled Trials on masks in the general public over the last 20+ years tells us they should be then there are only costs. If you increase cross-contamination risk, which a mask order indisputably does when imposed on business workers and the general population then the outcome we have today was foreseeable.

You can't argue with the numbers and they're not my numbers, they're yours.

I will be distributing this letter to local firms.
Inline

----------
If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Unholy Mother Of Satan, the trend continues to ACCELERATE.

Again: Mask Mandate, no other changes, is increasing Covid-19 transmission in Sevier County TN.
Inline

----------
If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me

Weezie
Posts: 7284
Incept: 2008-05-19
A True American Patriot!
Caution: Congress at Work
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The only upside is that herd immunity is reached quicker. The st00pids, though will go "See, t3H m@SKs w0Rk!"

----------
jihad pressure cooker tea party guns Constitution Bill of Rights play doh squiggly line prepper home garden cluster****
Asimov
Posts: 118890
Incept: 2007-08-26

East Tennessee
Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I can see it, so clearly:

"We knew it was coming, so we did what we could. Imagine how bad it would have been without the mask order."


----------
It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Mooreupp
Posts: 623
Incept: 2007-10-31

Ohio
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Out on a trip now, but when get back to Columbus going to see if I can find this data and compare it to our mask mandate.

----------
The Constitution is the law. It is not, and was never meant to be a "living document."
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
It gets complicated if your area changed anything else in terms of mandates at the same time (e.g. allowing bars to reopen while at the same time mandating masks.) That would be almost-impossible to accurately disentangle.

This is a nice clean "test" in that not only was the effective date a week AFTER the 4th of July holiday (so the impact of visitors/tourism/gathering would occur BEFORE the mandate had any effect) but in addition there were no other changes in business operations or other strictures from the state or county.

Frankly if they wanted to pull a scam they ****ed up; if they had issued it effective the 5th of July they could have claimed the tourism over the holiday weekend did it. That they put it into effect on the 10th makes that argument impossible as the impact of the change should occur on or right about the 15th, too late for the 4th to be the cause -- and it did.

----------
If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Oh **** I hate being right.
Inline

----------
If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Oldno7
Posts: 2731
Incept: 2008-11-14

RECALL STATE USA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
TG you are nasty always confusing people with the facts!

----------
IT'S THE SPENDING STUPID The US must become less a government of men, and more a government of LAW.When people lose everything and have nothing left to lose they lose it -Gerald Celente
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Yeah I am known for that, aren't I?

smiley

Oh want another good one? Not relevant to this county, but to DC. Their "mask order" exempts lawmakers and government employees.

Want to know why?

Because a mask order outside of a lab or health care environment where protocols can be established and actually followed (e.g. proper donning and doffing, no re-use, proper disposal of used masks, etc) puts the WEARER at risk. The odds of you infecting YOURSELF through contact with the inside surface of the mask if/when it is reused, or if the inside surface contacts contaminated surfaces when you remove it and then you use it again makes this quite likely.

So they exempted the people who they didn't want to screw; the ordinary citizens, on the other hand, well they're just Covid fodder.

In short mask orders are in fact an order to infect yourself, basically. And while I understand proper procedure and with sufficient attention I could probably adhere to it in most circumstances and given a willingness to spend an unlimited amount of money on supplies to avoid re-use it's literally impossible for me to follow procedure in an eating or drinking establishment without breaking the "law", never mind that it only takes one mistake and you're worse off than if you wore no mask at all.

----------
If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Goforbroke
Posts: 9287
Incept: 2007-11-30
A True American Patriot!
The tadpole is gone due to CV-19. I am hunkering down.
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Brilliant.

Absolutely ****ing brilliant.

Turn person against person and person against him/herself.

And the prize of this brilliance will be total control.

I retract my feelings of "Are we wrong?"

We aren't.

----------
It is death which gives meaning to life.
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Today's missive:

Dear Sirs;

The "late reporting of test result" excuse, which I'm sure you've been relying on as you have not dropped your clearly incorrect order, has long since expired Mr. Waters.

We are now 16 days past the imposition of your Mask Order -- more than three viral incubation times. At exactly one viral incubation time the trend change occurred. It has continued on an unbroken basis since; the case delta rate, 7 day moving average of the delta and the active case count have all deteriorated materially. Today the 7 day moving average of case growth rate in percentage terms stands at more than double what it was on the 14th.

This is direct evidence -- scientific evidence -- that your order radically increased Covid19 transmission in our community. It stands as the single most-reckless action you and your health department have taken since the beginning of this pandemic, and has both directly and materially harmed Sevier County residents.

There is one piece of good news. By my best guess, if the best evidence we have to date holds, we are now roughly 17 days from reaching suppression in Sevier County. In just over two weeks the rate of infection should start to fall on its own -- but not because of your actions.

Rather they will be in spite of them as you have radically increased the rate of infections in this county. We were taking it "nice and slow" -- today, as a direct result of your order that went into effect on the 10th, not so much.
Inline

----------
If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Frat
Posts: 3361
Incept: 2009-07-15

NKY
Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Oh, **** Karl, now you've done it. I've passive-aggressively started throwing out there "We've seen huge increases in both mask mandates and compliance. If masks were as effective as claimed, wouldn't ANY usage decrease the transmission rate? So how do you explain not just an increase, but what is being represented as a substantial increase at that?" Karens are unhappy, which does in turn make me happy.

----------
We're ****ed. Where's Henry Bowman Kyle Rittenhouse when you need him?
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
REEEEEing Karens make themselves clearly evident as, well...

Oh, by the way, four deaths. If our county is "normal" it suffers about 800 deaths a year from all causes.

We've turned into a quivering blob of jello over something that is responsible for about 1/2 of 1% of the inherent risk we all take simply by being alive.

If that is not proof of insanity I'd like to know what is.

----------
If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The stupid continues unabated.
Inline

----------
If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Frat
Posts: 3361
Incept: 2009-07-15

NKY
Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Talk to Butthole Beshear ... 30-day mask mandate, no gatherings more than 10 people (again), restaurants to 25% ****ING CAPACITY, and bars closed ...

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN WE OPEN BACK UP AND THE SAME **** HAPPENS?!

I swear, these ****tards want to be seen as "Doing SOMETHING!" without making any damn sense or showing any foresight. This is insane.

----------
We're ****ed. Where's Henry Bowman Kyle Rittenhouse when you need him?
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Note the right side column in that spreadsheet -- I added it yesterday.

It is the presumed positive test rate (assumption: there are 10x infections what is being tested) + the presumed (from Singapore study) and then my fudge factor for the CI on both of those skewed toward the "bad" side, computed forward at the 7 day moving average of case growth rate.

----------
If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Frat
Posts: 3361
Incept: 2009-07-15

NKY
Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
You mean the one that's steadily dwindling to nothing?

----------
We're ****ed. Where's Henry Bowman Kyle Rittenhouse when you need him?
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Yeah but look what they did -- their "mask order" took what was a 60 day time-to-suppression and turned it into less than three weeks!

We'll see if we actually get the expected suppression in new cases when it's hit.

----------
If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Frat
Posts: 3361
Incept: 2009-07-15

NKY
Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I've literally said to anyone who'd listen (which means almost no one, since they'd prefer to REEEEEE and call me a granny killer) that the only way is THROUGH this thing. If you're high risk, absolutely isolate yourself and we should protect you. Everyone else? Just get it the **** over with. It's pretty funny though how the mask mandates are INCREASING cases, in the summer, all over the place. At least, that's what their numbers are showing. I'm sure it will be blamed on Trump and people who don't wear masks.

----------
We're ****ed. Where's Henry Bowman Kyle Rittenhouse when you need him?
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Yep.

Yeah, and the funny part is that AZ, TX and now SC appear to have rolled.

Texas' numbers have COLLAPSED; more than a 50% move south in the last couple of days, and not for lack of test numbers either. The magically "found" nearly 700 new deaths -- which was like 2/3rds of them nationally for the day! BULL****ING ****.

Florida too.

Oh, and don't look at Georgia, although I wouldn't be surprised if that one is a false God; they're a bit light on the percentages yet.

So far the thesis is holding quite nicely on where suppression is..... I may pay for a ****ing billboard right on I-40 for a month if this proves up. Maybe I'll transplant the mayor's head on a sheep or something similar.

----------
If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Weezie
Posts: 7284
Incept: 2008-05-19
A True American Patriot!
Caution: Congress at Work
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Once they run out of excess deaths to attribute, the gig is up.

----------
jihad pressure cooker tea party guns Constitution Bill of Rights play doh squiggly line prepper home garden cluster****
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The collapse is underway.

----------
If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Djloche
Posts: 4424
Incept: 2008-07-07

Vancouver, WA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
What % of those deaths are from the past few days vs the rest of the year? No doubt they are going in and re-labeling anything they can get away with as covid19

----------
"The Constitution is the IDE. The 2nd Amendment is the debugger."
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Doesn't matter. Game's over for AZ, TX, SC and, it appears, perhaps FL and GA as well.

TN won't be far behind at present rates.

The propaganda is going to fall in the face of the hard, irrefutable evidence.

----------
If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Weezie
Posts: 7284
Incept: 2008-05-19
A True American Patriot!
Caution: Congress at Work
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
G-d, I hope so... Because I am so tired of this bull****.


----------
jihad pressure cooker tea party guns Constitution Bill of Rights play doh squiggly line prepper home garden cluster****
Top Forum Top Login FAQ Register Clear Cookie
Showing Page 1 of 3  First123Last