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User Info Current State On Deck List; entered at 2020-07-20 09:47:06
Posts: 166247
Registered: 2007-06-26
What is the purpose of this post? Simple; testing a hypothesis with data.

Presumption: There are ~10 Covid19 "infections" for every reported "case." This is the CDC's presumption, not mine, but it appears to be reasonably accurate.

Hypothesis: Given the data from Singapore, as published in NATURE in the form of a peer-reviewed scientific paper, pre-existing resistance to Covid19 which could not be traced to SARS, MERS or previous Covid19 infection is about 50%. This is a profound observation that explains fully Diamond Princess, a cruise ship that was a closed experimental virus system for nearly a month and yet produced only 17% infection rates. That is impossible for a 100% susceptible population -- but it fits nicely if 50% is already partially or entirely immune and the virus has an R0 of somewhere between 2.5 and 3.0, as in that case herd suppresion occurs at about 66%. This matches exactly with what was observed.

In addition this means that each state, city or region of a state should reach herd suppression irrespective of their mitigation measures somewhere around a 2% infected rate counted by "cases." If the hypothesis is correct no state should be materially over that percentage without running into suppression of the virus and its transmission by natural forces.

I am not listing all 50 states here. Instead, I will list some that have apparently reached suppression with their percentage of population in "positives" on the day I added them, plus their graph. Then I will list should reach "soon" states. As time goes on I will move states from "should" to VALIDATED or NOT-VALIDATED status depending on what happens.

Note that a 2% prevalence sounds really good but the fact is that Sweden, which did not lock down, appears to have reached suppression at 0.7%, more or less, in cases. This strongly implies, but does not prove, that lockdowns in fact may add as much as 10% OR A CLEAN DOUBLE to the actual suppression rate required. Why would this be true? Because lockdowns force household units inside and an infection in one is thus more-likely to propagate.

Note that if this is correct then we're flat-out insane to do anything other than let the infection go and work to treat the victims, plus controlling health care transmission so as to prevent the health care system from vectoring the victims toward those most-easily killed. We have utterly FAILED to do that thus far. It also means that vaccines are and will be worthless. Why would you vaccinate for a disease that has a 2% maximum "serious enough to to get tested" case rate and one that, of that 2%, kills less than 1 in 10 of those? That's where we are RIGHT NOW folks. Never mind that there is evidence -- not yet proof, but evidence -- that the flu vaccine may have potentiated some of those deaths by enhancing the lethality of a Covid19 infection.

Further, for those states that CAN have an exponential spike note that it is limited to 2% of their population less that already documented as infected, with the peak being at 1.5%. So if you have, for example, a current 1% confirmed infected rate the peak should come right at or near 1.5%, and limit out around 2% at which point you have residual infections that will continue no matter what you do. In addition deaths should peak about 2 weeks after you reach that 1.5% rate and then fall toward irrelevance. What this means is that "flattening the curve" isn't really an intelligent decision because there is no risk of a 10 or 100x explosion in the number of infected people requiring treatment. There is no evidence anywhere in the world of such an event happening.

Even Italy, with 35,000 dead nearly all elderly people, has only had 0.4% of their population test positive! Think about that one folks -- for those who claim this virus can infect "everyone" Italy has tallied up 244,000 infections out of a population of 60 million citizens.

You're flat-out insane to believe there is no pre-existing resistance and that it can rip through and destroy entire nations. There is ZERO data to suggest that is true -- not in Italy, not in the UK, not here, not anywhere. The key is to NOT VECTOR THE INFECTION into vulnerable populations. Singapore has been wildly successful in doing that. The rest of us, not so much -- and that's where our wrath belongs.

So with that, here we are:

States that appear to CONFIRM the hypothesis:

Suppression reached: April 25th
Cases then: 282,143 / 14.51%
Date of flatline: June 16th
Cases then: 384,575 / 19.77%
Exponential spike possible: NO

Suppression reached: April 26th
Cases then: 109,038 / 12.28%
Date of flatline: June 23rd
Cases then: 169,734 / 19.10%
Exponential spike possible: NO

Suppression reached: May 3rd
Cases then: 68,087 / 9.88%
Date of flatine: June 25th
Cases then: 107,837 / 15.64%
Exponential spike possible: NO

(Yes, there are more, but this should show you what to look for)

Entering or In Suppression NOW

Suppression reached: July 7th
Cases then: 105,094 / 14.44%
Date of flatline: NOT YET
Cases 7/19: 143,624 / 19.73%
Exponential spike possible: NO

Suppression reached: July 21, PENDING CONFIRM
Cases 7/19: 325,030 / 11.21%
Cases 7/21: 341,739 / 11.78% (!!)
Exponential spike possible: UNLIKELY (<15%)

Suppression reached: JULY 17 PENDING CONFIRM
Cases 7/19: 350,047 / 16.3%

Suppression reached: JULY 17, PENDING CONFIRM
Cases 7/23: 76,606 / 14.88%
Exponential spike possible: VERY UNLIKELY
Added 7/23

Nearing Suppression

Suppression reached: APPROACHING
Cases 7/19: 143,123 / 13.48%
Note 7/27: 170,843 / 16.09%, MAY HAVE HIT SUPPRESSION 7/24

Suppression reached: No
Cases 7/19: 162,750 12.85%
Exponential spike possible: MODERATELY UNLIKELY; suppression in ~3 weeks from 7/19

Suppression reached: No
Cases 7/19: 78,115 / 11.44%

States NOT nearing suppression yet

Suppression reached: NO
Cases 7/19: 99,778 / 9.51%
Exponential spike possible: YES, current presumed margin exceeds 5%

Suppression reached: NO
Cases 7/19: 384,692 / 9.74%
Exponential spike possible: YES, current presumed margin exceeds 5%

Suppression reached: NO
Cases 7/19: 77,430 / 9.07%
Exponential spike possible: YES, current presumed margin exceeds 5%

Suppression reached: NO
Cases 7/19: 32533 / 10.78%
Exponential spike possible: MODERATE RISK, ~4% presumed margin.

If you have a state you'd like me to add and track please comment below.

Last modified: 2020-07-27 18:20:05 by tickerguy