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"The Constitution is hereby repealed by diktat of nine" - Roberts, 05-29-2020
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User Info Scientific Evidence: Mask Order INCREASES Transmission; entered at 2020-07-20 11:58:40
Tickerguy
Posts: 166364
Registered: 2007-06-26
Dear Sirs;

The data is, at this point, quite clear.

Your County mask mandate came into effect on 10 July. It is now 10 days, or 2 viral "cycles", later.

No effects would be visible for at least three and likely five (median time to symptoms from infection) days post mandate. Therefore, any trend changes prior to the 15th are not from the mandate; they physically cannot be.

The 7 day rolling moving average of case numbers was trending down right up until the 15th. Literally on the 15th, the first day that an effect would be expected to be seen, it reversed. It is now running 25% higher than the day of the mandate imposition itself.

This by itself is quite troubling. While the confidence bands I calculate are too wide to make a definitive statement it certainly appears that the mask mandate increased transmission of the virus rather than suppressing it.

Further, the gap between recovering and active cases, which demonstrably showed no reason for the mandate in the first place -- active cases were contracting -- has narrowed. This is bad and again, the date of the turn occurred exactly on the 15th.

No other restrictions or changes were made in terms of what businesses could be open or not, or under what terms, on the 10th. You thus cannot point to confounding factors. Further, you can't point to the 4th of July weekend either, as those effects would be visible on the 9th, or effective on the day the mandate went into effect. Yet into the 4th of July weekend and forward for another week the case delta rate continued to trend downward.

The data and trends in it are clear: The mask mandate was worse than worthless; it appears to be causing HARM.

Fortunately -- at least to this point -- we are still getting more recoveries than active cases. If that changes then you've gone from making people mildly sick to make them very sick and perhaps even killing them with your mandate.

That's what the science tells us.

It's not surprising; all mitigations have both benefits and costs. If the benefits are zero, which the physics and 14 Random Controlled Trials on masks in the general public over the last 20+ years tells us they should be then there are only costs. If you increase cross-contamination risk, which a mask order indisputably does when imposed on business workers and the general population then the outcome we have today was foreseeable.

You can't argue with the numbers and they're not my numbers, they're yours.

I will be distributing this letter to local firms.