Fact: There is no immunity or protection against The Law of Scoreboards.
Corollary: You are crunchy and, with enough BBQ sauce, palatable.
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|User Info||Four Scenarios, Covid19, United States; entered at 2020-11-15 12:22:28|
This is basic algebra. We have IFR (that is, "if you get infected, risk of dying") from the CDC, and we also have hard evidence that 30-50% of the population is previously immune (likely due to other coronaviruses.) The data on population segments is from Statista, since the 2020 Census data is not yet available, but generally conforms with what is known. With this and a presumed R0 we can compute what happens under different scenarios.|
Note that this relies on natural dispersion; that is, young children naturally take MANY more exposures than older people? Why? Because a school kid takes 20-40 potential viral exposures before they even get to school (e.g. simply the other people on his or her bus), then a couple hundred more between classes, recess, the lunch room, etc.
A college student likely takes 100 exposures through classes, then another 200 at the kegger Friday night.
An officer worker perhaps takes 50; 20 or 30 getting to work (e.g. on the train, bus, etc) and another 20 or 30 in the office itself. FAR FEWER.
A retired person, or someone in a care home, likely takes 10 or fewer. Why? Because Granny plays bridge with three friends (that's 4) and then takes a couple more going to the grocery store.
THIS IS A NATURAL DISPERSION and if you leave it alone it skews cases toward the younger people. THAT IS GOOD, NOT BAD.
So with that said, let's see what we get.
Scenario #1: Do nothing; this is "let it rip"
Results: This is pretty bad. Ok, let's see what happens if we lock down.
Scenario #2: Lockdown -- close schools, colleges, bars, raves, concerts. In short, take the younger people and deliberately remove nearly all of their exposures, down-regulating everyone in school to "home only" and, with the exception of "essential workers" who have a number of exposures, everyone else goes to basically zero. Old people do not change since they still play Bridge and go to the grocery store. Basically this flattens exposures; it turns EVERYONE into Granny in terms of their exposure pattern by slamming the door on everything social that people usually do.
Result: Oh **** me dead. You just killed all the old people! Why? Because you stopped cases from being taken by the young people. Oh, you "flatten the curve" all right, in that the case build rate is lower, but you skew the cases that DO occur to older and sicker people and kill a lot of them instead of the cases being taken by people who the virus can't hurt. This is what we did and what we continue to do -- government officials doing this, and so-called "Academics" promoting same are committing Murder 2 by the tens of thousands AND SHOULD HANG FOR IT.
Scenario #3: LOCK IN seniors, tell 50+ to reduce, everyone else is LEFT ALONE. 50+ people voluntarily reduce their interaction with others. Hospitals and nursing homes segregate; ONLY SEROLOGICALLY CONVERTED PEOPLE are permitted in non-seroconverted wings or wards and PHYSICAL separation of all items and services (food, laundry, etc) occurs. This STOPS nosocomial infection into nursing homes and via hospitals. The effective exposure rate for old people does not go quite to zero, BUT DAMN CLOSE, and those 50+ materially reduce their exposure. NO MASKS, NO CLOSING SCHOOLS. NO DISTANCE LEARNING, KEGGERS STILL GO ON, CONCERTS, ETC -- you DELIBERATELY do not tamper in ANY WAY with younger people's lives.
Result: A HELL OF A LOT LESS DEATH and it's over.
Scenario #4: Scenario #3 but with boosting the infections taken by younger people through deliberate enhancement. In other words the Mayor throws a kegger for everyone under 50 every Friday. Schools have GROUP HUGS at the end of every class. We do free dances on Friday nights in the schools -- EVERY FRIDAY night. Frat parties are ENCOURAGED, as are Raves and similar. We also keep the sanitarium model and advice for older people. In short we double exposures for young adults and for kids increase them by 50% through incentives (not coercion); the intent is to have them take more exposures on a proportional basis, since they are least-likely to be harmed.
Result: The LEAST death. Duh.
One final point -- cheap and widely-available IgG "finger stick" tests must be available privately at low cost to all. Why? Because there are plenty of mixed households with materially older and sicker people in them. Knowing who is seroconverted and who is not allows these families to make intelligent choices; for example, if you have 80 year old Grandma living with you and she is NOT seroconverted (if she is then she's safe) perhaps you have the kids stay with the neighbor for a few months until they get it and seroconvert so they don't give it to Granny. Once they HAVE seroconverted they're safe. Likewise, if you or she is, then you're safe.
KNOWLEDGE IS POWER and the above assumes no use of that knowledge to shift households around on purpose to exploit who is and who is not seroconverted. GIVE PEOPLE THE ABILITY TO KNOW FOR $2, which is what these tests cost, and that problem will be largely reduced.
People need to go to prison. Right now.
And further, ANY "mandate" from any government official must be refused and, if necessary, that refusal must be backed up with whatever is necessary. The evidence is irrefutable that the government KILLED YOUR GRANDMOTHER and we must stop this bull**** so MORE Grandmothers are not killed.
Last modified: 2020-11-15 23:15:13 by tickerguy