Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 303,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, government, and construction.
Of course two of the three are basically (from an economic reality perspective) a tax; one absolute and forced, the other coerced.
72,000 jobs added this month in health care? How many of those were doctors or nurses? I'll bet less than 10%. The rest are responsible for making sure the amount of money spent goes up. You're not really going to try to tell me that in one month we had to add someone in medical care for each 4,600 people in America, are you? I mean, we're not all standing in line to get into a clinic or hospital, are we?
Employment showed little or no change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; and professional and business services.
The economy portion that actually improves people's lives -- you know, by making things we then want and delivering them to people -- that went nowhere last month.
On the unadjusted household numbers the raw figure was +1.041 million, which is roughly in-line for a March with no real surprise. The number of couch surfers ("not in labor force") was down by 502,000, accounting for about half of the job "adds." Note that the household survey doesn't count the number of jobs (that is, they ask "do you have a job?") so someone who has two counts as one there, where in the establishment survey they count employment by the firm, so if you have two jobs it will show as 2 in that survey. This isn't intentional misdirection -- its just a different means of measurement.
Of particular note and which should be good for immediate alarm in the asset markets which are all expecting lower interest rates was an 0.7% monthly change in employment compensation. That annualizes to 8.7% so if you think rates are coming down with employment wage costs going up by nearly 9% on an annualized basis I will strongly suggest you go see someone about your particular delusionary tendencies.
As Kashkari said yesterday "if inflation continues to stall" there will be no cuts at all and this is yet another indication, along with both the PPI and ISM prices paid, that it not only is "stalling" it is reaccelerating.
That is exactly what I have expected from the data going back the last several months and why, in my forward projection Ticker for 2024, I did not expect to see materially lower -- if lower at all -- Fed Funds rates. Add to this that Congress continues to deficit spend on an insane basis and there is no way you are going to see inflation pressures wane -- and thus the current inversion of the curve, with the TNX trading roughly a full percent under the IRX is flat-out nuts.